Jump to content
NBC Sports EDGE Forums

Deebo Samuel 2019 Outlook


Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, Rush2112 said:

Will be targeting him very early this August, He is on the verge of being a top 10 WR for years to come 

The lack of volume alone will likely prevent him from ever entering the top-10 category.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

 I see that wr room getting revamped or more competitive in the offseason. Shanny was not happy with the pass catching which is why he signed Sanders to help them. 

Hurd+Bourne+Pettis are not complete writeoffs due to various injuries during the season.

i'm not pushing Deebo or any pass catcher not named Kittles up the draft board.  it's a relatively young group so I dont think roles/rotations are solidified going into next season. The one thing we do know for sure is that Shanny will make them all compete in camp for their jobs same as he did  this past season. 

Deebo was a rookie and started slow.  Like many rookies do then picked up as the season went on.  They traded for Sanders because Bourne and Pettis sucked so bad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, youngrice said:

Deebo was a rookie and started slow.  Like many rookies do then picked up as the season went on.  They traded for Sanders because Bourne and Pettis sucked so bad.

 

Yes this is all known information but I don't assume that next season means that deebo is the stud and everyone else still sucks or the same rotations continue. Deebo moved up the depth chart because of injuries or failure to execute by others plus the Niners short passing game and his opportunity to get reps every week. I won't bet any high draft capital on him being a top 12 fantasy  wr because the passing volume away from Kittles is too low and inconsistent to produce a week to week top 12 wr.  To be clear this is not a statement on deebos talent, it is a statement about the value of a  Niners wr based on their offense.  

 Fundamentally from a fantasy perspective the Niners offense away from Kittles does not produce enough passing volume to have a season long fantasy wr1 and it hasnt had one under the Shanny era. They also don't produce a stud rb because of the rotations/injuries. Even the QB is a coin flip  streamer.  Assumming the defense plays the same or better next season I would expect the same or less passing volume. This is not an offense you spend high draft capital on, you make your bets on who has the shot to be a  fantasy wr2 at a wr3 price. 

Then again other teams could figure out how to beat their defense and then JimmyG becomes a weekly QB hero and he does make someone a weekly fantasy wr1. I will let someone else pay up for that scenario on draft day😂

Edited by dashoe
Link to comment
Share on other sites

56 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Yes this is all known information but I don't assume that next season means that deebo is the stud and everyone else still sucks or the same rotations continue. Deebo moved up the depth chart because of injuries or failure to execute by others plus the Niners short passing game and his opportunity to get reps every week. I won't bet any high draft capital on him being a top 12 fantasy  wr because the passing volume away from Kittles is too low and inconsistent to produce a week to week top 12 wr.  To be clear this is not a statement on deebos talent, it is a statement about the value of a  Niners wr based on their offense.  

 Fundamentally from a fantasy perspective the Niners offense away from Kittles does not produce enough passing volume to have a season long fantasy wr1 and it hasnt had one under the Shanny era. They also don't produce a stud rb because of the rotations/injuries. Even the QB is a coin flip  streamer.  Assumming the defense plays the same or better next season I would expect the same or less passing volume. This is not an offense you spend high draft capital on, you make your bets on who has the shot to be a  fantasy wr2 at a wr3 price. 

Then again other teams could figure out how to beat their defense and then JimmyG becomes a weekly QB hero and he does make someone a weekly fantasy wr1. I will let someone else pay up for that scenario on draft day😂

I'm not saying spend high draft capital on him.  But he should be taken in fifth to sixth round.  I mean you take his numbers from last 8 games and he averaged 90 yds and .5 tds.     

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, BMcP said:

The lack of volume alone will likely prevent him from ever entering the top-10 category.

Deebo will absolutely hit the top 10 WR's easily. He get tons of volume. E. Sanders is over 30 years old and way past his prime. Pettis & Goodwin are both garbage to. . 

Edited by Rush2112
Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, Rush2112 said:

Deebo will absolutely hit the top 10 WR's easily. He get tons of volume. E. Sanders is over 30 years old and way past his prime. Pettis & Goodwin are both garbage to. . 

This has nothing to do with Emmanuel Sanders.  If you think he’ll get “tons of volume,” you are delusional.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Rush2112 said:

Deebo will absolutely hit the top 10 WR's easily. He get tons of volume. E. Sanders is over 30 years old and way past his prime. Pettis & Goodwin are both garbage to. . 

 

I dont see the tons of volume based on the 2019 season. The Niners are ranked #31 in passing plays because they dont need to pass.

48% of SF plays are passing 478 attempts

28 pass attempts per game, 69% completion rate = 19 completions

avg pass yds per game 221.

Deebo has averaged 18% market share for the season and for comparison kittle gets 28%

Deebo also averages 4.5 targets per game as the #2 passing option. kittles avg is 6

an average wr1 needs at least 25% market share and on the SF offense that would be roughly 5 catches. 

The target volumes are very low volume for a top 10 fantasy wr1.  Also from a fantasy perspective Deebo does not run many deep routes so his lack of air yards would make it difficult for him to be a top 10 fantasy wr. Again because SF does not need to throw many deep balls to win. 

Deebo would have to be extremely efficient with each catch and get massive YAC's and some td's to be a top 10 fantasy wr.

 

Show me how Deebo gets the passing volume or the air yards that currently do not exist on this offense to become a top 10 fantasy wr.🤔

 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

I dont see the tons of volume based on the 2019 season. The Niners are ranked #31 in passing plays because they dont need to pass.

48% of SF plays are passing 478 attempts

28 pass attempts per game, 69% completion rate = 19 completions

avg pass yds per game 221.

Deebo has averaged 18% market share for the season and for comparison kittle gets 28%

Deebo also averages 4.5 targets per game as the #2 passing option. kittles avg is 6

an average wr1 needs at least 25% market share and on the SF offense that would be roughly 5 catches. 

The target volumes are very low volume for a top 10 fantasy wr1.  Also from a fantasy perspective Deebo does not run many deep routes so his lack of air yards would make it difficult for him to be a top 10 fantasy wr. Again because SF does not need to throw many deep balls to win. 

Deebo would have to be extremely efficient with each catch and get massive YAC's and some td's to be a top 10 fantasy wr.

 

Show me how Deebo gets the passing volume or the air yards that currently do not exist on this offense to become a top 10 fantasy wr.🤔

 

While I do agree with you and anybody drafting Deebo as a top 10 is taking a huge leap.  But your assuming SF will be the same team especially on D side.  As a fan I hope they are but history has shown D's usually regress after great seasons. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, youngrice said:

While I do agree with you and anybody drafting Deebo as a top 10 is taking a huge leap.  But your assuming SF will be the same team especially on D side.  As a fan I hope they are but history has shown D's usually regress after great seasons. 

 

No team is ever the same team with each new season because of different players, staff etc however schemes are usually consistent year to year with a couple of new wrinkles.

Even if the defense regresses, this offense under Shanny has not produced a top 10 fantasy wr the last 3 seasons when there was plenty of volume because they were always in catch up mode. They have produced a top 5 TE the last 2 seasons but not a top 10 wr. I don't see how Deebo becomes one as long as Kittle is the primary short and intermediate pass catcher or they suck so much they are throwing the ball 40x a game or  Jimmy G starts launching it downfield more and Deebo is the primary passcatcher downfield. 

 

Edited by dashoe
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, dashoe said:

 

No team is ever the same team with each new season because of different players, staff etc however schemes are usually consistent year to year with a couple of new wrinkles.

Even if the defense regresses, this offense under Shanny has not produced a top 10 fantasy wr the last 3 seasons when there was plenty of volume because they were always in catch up mode. They have produced a top 5 TE the last 2 seasons but not a top 10 wr.

 

I never said Deebo was a top 10 WR and like I said I wouldn't draft him as much.  But you can not deny he took off second half of the season and deserves to be in the top 15 to 20 range.  IMO he has as much of a chance or more to finish as a top 10 WR as the other guys that would be drafted in the 15 to 20 range.

They produced a top 5 TE because Kittle is a beast and arguably the best at his position.  They have not had any talent at WR before Deebo under shanny.  So you really can't use the past 3 years and say they never will have a top 10 wr under him.  I mean Goodwin was around a top 10 WR a couple of years ago once Jimmy G took over and I think we can all agree he is nowhere close to Deebo's talent.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, youngrice said:

I never said Deebo was a top 10 WR and like I said I wouldn't draft him as much.  But you can not deny he took off second half of the season and deserves to be in the top 15 to 20 range.  IMO he has as much of a chance or more to finish as a top 10 WR as the other guys that would be drafted in the 15 to 20 range.

They produced a top 5 TE because Kittle is a beast and arguably the best at his position.  They have not had any talent at WR before Deebo under shanny. 

So you really can't use the past 3 years and say they never will have a top 10 wr under him. 

I mean Goodwin was around a top 10 WR a couple of years ago once Jimmy G took over and I think we can all agree he is nowhere close to Deebo's talent.

 

 

I'm really not sure what you are debating . I'm stating the case as to why Deebo won't be a fantasy wr1  contrary to many recent opinions in this thread.

So you are making the case he will be a wr2 and drafted as such? Ok that's fine, I'm not debating that. 😂

Why can't we look at the last 3years of what a HC has done with his team? You are basing your analysis on 8 games of production for 1 player as if that production occurs n a vacuum, I am looking at the way the offense has been run historically under the HC.  The weekly target volume and air yards are simply not in favor of  creating a top 10 fantasy wr. Lot's of guys take off or get hot at various parts of a season that doent automatically vault them into elite fantasy players the following season. 

All we do in fantasy is look at what a team or player has done historically and forecast what it will do in the future. You are looking at a players 8 games and i am looking at 3years under 1 HC. 🤨

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

I'm really not sure what you are debating . I'm stating the case as to why Deebo won't be a fantasy wr1  contrary to many recent opinions in this thread.

So you are making the case he will be a wr2 and drafted as such? Ok that's fine, I'm not debating that. 😂

Why can't we look at the last 3years of what a HC has done with his team? You are basing your analysis on 8 games of production for 1 player as if that production occurs n a vacuum, I am looking at the way the offense has been run historically under the HC.  The weekly target volume and air yards are simply not in favor of  creating a top 10 fantasy wr. Lot's of guys take off or get hot at various parts of a season that doent automatically vault them into elite fantasy players the following season. 

All we do in fantasy is look at what a team or player has done historically and forecast what it will do in the future. You are looking at a players 8 games and i am looking at 3years under 1 HC. 🤨

Because they have not had talent.  Julio had the best season of his career in Shanny's offense.  Same with Andre Johnson.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, youngrice said:

Because they have not had talent.  Julio had the best season of his career in Shanny's offense.  Same with Andre Johnson.

 

Ok now you are really making some bad correlations. This Niners do not even resemble the  Falcons talent, scheme or coaching wise. Shanny was an OC  for 2 seasons not a HC. The Falcons always had talent at wr before and after Shanny was the OC. 

What Shanny has done with former teams as an OC is actually less relevant than what he has been doing with the Niners as a HC for fantasy purposes.

Again I am not exactly sure what you are debating, you are sort of all over the place with your process. 

Seems that you are implying that  Deebo is going to become the next Julio for the Niners? Then that would make him a top 5 wr not the wr2 you said in a previous post.  Make you mind first you  keep moving your Deebo  valuations all over the map Is he a fantasy wr1 or a wr2 for next season? 😂

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Ok now you are really making some bad correlations. This Niners do not even resemble the  Falcons talent, scheme or coaching wise. Shanny was an OC  for 2 seasons not a HC. The Falcons always had talent at wr before and after Shanny was the OC. 

What Shanny has done with former teams as an OC is actually less relevant than what he has been doing with the Niners as a HC for fantasy purposes.

Again I am not exactly sure what you are debating, you are sort of all over the place with your process. 

Seems that you are implying that  Deebo is going to become the next Julio for the Niners? Then that would make him a top 5 wr not the wr2 you said in a previous post.  Make you mind first you  keep moving your Deebo  valuations all over the map Is he a fantasy wr1 or a wr2 for next season? 😂

Not at all.  My point is you can't just say the offense will never produce a top WR but it can produce a top TE.  Well they have had a top TE since he came over.  THis year is the first time they have had a talent at WR and in the past WR's have thrived in this offense.  Also as I mentioned before Deebo reminds me of Boldin.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, youngrice said:

Not at all.  My point is you can't just say the offense will never produce a top WR but it can produce a top TE.  Well they have had a top TE since he came over.  THis year is the first time they have had a talent at WR and in the past WR's have thrived in this offense.  Also as I mentioned before Deebo reminds me of Boldin.  

 

Again you are all over the map here are you saying Deebo a fantasy wr1 or a wr2? Telling me that wr's have "thrived in this offense"  or they didnt have much talent is not saying anything.  That does not help me in my draft next season.

They have yet to produce a top 10 fantasy wr.  Newsflash. .his name is Kittles. 😂

 I never said  SF wouldl NEVER produce a top 10 wr. I said they have not done so in 3yrs and it is highly unlikely they will next season because the volume does not exist in the current scheme and this has been the case with 3yrs with Shanny as HC. The scheme has been run heavy with a low volume passing game of short and intermediate passes with Kittle getting  +26-28% market share of the passing game the last 2 seasons.

Again show me how Deebo changes this pattern and becomes  a fantasy wr1. 

You would have to make multiple assumptions that the run game fails completely, the defense busts, Jimmy G throws closer to 40x instead of 28x per game or Deebo becomes the downfield threat and catches 60yd passes like Tyreek Hill, Deebo becomes the primary redzone threat the rest of the wr room becomes completely incompetent and deebo gets at least 24% target share, kittle gets injured, etc,etc,etc.

Seems to me that you are more of a Deebo fan than focusing on fantasy analysis which is why tis is not a fruitful discussion on a fantasy forum. 🤔

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I had Deebo on my team this past year. I didn’t start him once.. I look back at his FF points/stats and say to myself, “wow and I didn’t start him???” My point is, he did play and produce this year. I expect him to IMPROVE next year as well. Dude is ATLEAST a Wr3 but will consistently do WR2 numbers next year with a good amount of WR1 games. Happy he’s on my Dyansty team! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, SyNdicateZ said:

I had Deebo on my team this past year. I didn’t start him once.. I look back at his FF points/stats and say to myself, “wow and I didn’t start him???” My point is, he did play and produce this year. I expect him to IMPROVE next year as well. Dude is ATLEAST a Wr3 but will consistently do WR2 numbers next year with a good amount of WR1 games. Happy he’s on my Dyansty team! 

 

I think he can be a season long wr2 based on averages but I would have to get him at a wr3 price because I think the wr room is going to be competitive for the low volume of targets next season and I don't think he will be a week to week consistent wr2 on this offense. As long as Kittle is the primary pass catcher on this offense I don't think they will have the volume for a true wr1. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

I think he can be a season long wr2 based on averages but I would have to get him at a wr3 price because I think the wr room is going to be competitive for the low volume of targets next season and I don't think he will be a week to week consistent wr2 on this offense. As long as Kittle is the primary pass catcher on this offense I don't think they will have the volume for a true wr1. 

i agree ....Deebo should be drafted as a Wr3 at earliest. i do think he outperforms his draft position though. Just cant trust yet with the heavy run script plus kittle.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

Again you are all over the map here are you saying Deebo a fantasy wr1 or a wr2? Telling me that wr's have "thrived in this offense"  or they didnt have much talent is not saying anything.  That does not help me in my draft next season.

They have yet to produce a top 10 fantasy wr.  Newsflash. .his name is Kittles. 😂

 I never said  SF wouldl NEVER produce a top 10 wr. I said they have not done so in 3yrs and it is highly unlikely they will next season because the volume does not exist in the current scheme and this has been the case with 3yrs with Shanny as HC. The scheme has been run heavy with a low volume passing game of short and intermediate passes with Kittle getting  +26-28% market share of the passing game the last 2 seasons.

Again show me how Deebo changes this pattern and becomes  a fantasy wr1. 

You would have to make multiple assumptions that the run game fails completely, the defense busts, Jimmy G throws closer to 40x instead of 28x per game or Deebo becomes the downfield threat and catches 60yd passes like Tyreek Hill, Deebo becomes the primary redzone threat the rest of the wr room becomes completely incompetent and deebo gets at least 24% target share, kittle gets injured, etc,etc,etc.

Seems to me that you are more of a Deebo fan than focusing on fantasy analysis which is why tis is not a fruitful discussion on a fantasy forum. 🤔

 

He improves on a stellar second half of his rookie season and Shanny opens up the offense.   I know its hard to understand.  Seems to me you just keep spewing stats of this year.   Nothing ever changes from year to year. 🤔

This is almost as dumb a argument as trying to justify that Lamar jackson should be running when up 30.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, youngrice said:

He improves on a stellar second half of his rookie season and Shanny opens up the offense.   I know its hard to understand.  Seems to me you just keep spewing stats of this year.   Nothing ever changes from year to year. 🤔

This is almost as dumb a argument as trying to justify that Lamar jackson should be running when up 30.  

 

Again what are you debating? I have maintained Deebo is probably a wr2 and not a wr1 and even explained my process as to why the offense does not support him being a wr1  and you have said you think he is a wr2 but you keep posting as if you really think he is a wr1 but you provide no real process for it aside from wishing it.

Shanny "opens up" the offense? What does that mean? Opens it up to do what? 🤨

They are 13-3 and in the SB so exactly what would shanny "open up" in the offense?

Deebo "improves" based on what? He had 18% of the passing share for the season. 

Again seems to me that you are hoping and wishing that certain things may come true as a Deebo fan but you are not providing any process or basis for it.  All you are doing is tossing around a bunch of terms like "opens up, improves, talent", next season will be different etc. 

You do know that the Niners are 13-3 , NFC champs and in the SB correct?😂

 

Edited by dashoe
  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

Again what are you debating? I have maintained Deebo is probably a wr2 and not a wr1 and even explained my process as to why the offense does not support him being a wr1  and you have said you think he is a wr2 but you keep posting as if you really think he is a wr1 but you provide no real process for it aside from wishing it.

Shanny "opens up" the offense? What does that mean? Opens it up to do what? 🤨

They are 13-3 and in the SB so exactly what would shanny "open up" in the offense?

Deebo "improves" based on what? He had 18% of the passing share for the season. 

Again seems to me that you are hoping and wishing that certain things may come true as a Deebo fan but you are not providing any process or basis for it.  All you are doing is tossing around a bunch of terms like "opens up, improves, talent", next season will be different etc. 

You do know that the Niners are 13-3 , NFC champs and in the SB correct?😂

 

🥱

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...