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Russell Westbrook 2019-2020 Season Outlook


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It’s not really possible for him to finish with first round value in 9 cat roto due to his efficiency woes.  And if it’s H2H I’d bet against him making the playoffs and he’s old.  So there’s a huge shutdown/injury risk.  That’s a lot to work around.  However his counting stats could be bonkers: 26 PPG/11 RPG/11 APG; 1.9 3PG/1.9 SPG/.6 BPG.  That’s the good. Now the bad and the ugly: 43%, 70%, 5 TO.  I’d put that around maybe top 20 value in 9 cat.  If you can get him affordably and think you can somehow work with the 3 cat punt then go for it.  

 

 

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35 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

It’s not really possible for him to finish with first round value in 9 cat roto due to his efficiency woes.  And if it’s H2H I’d bet against him making the playoffs and he’s old.  So there’s a huge shutdown/injury risk.  That’s a lot to work around.  However his counting stats could be bonkers: 26 PPG/11 RPG/11 APG; 1.9 3PG/1.9 SPG/.6 BPG.  That’s the good. Now the bad and the ugly: 43%, 70%, 5 TO.  I’d put that around maybe top 20 value in 9 cat.  If you can get him affordably and think you can somehow work with the 3 cat punt then go for it.  

 

 

 

Those are good numbers could be close to actual. I'm staying away Russell in 9 cat roto leagues, but.....he could work in a H2H league with the right punts. More so on H2H auction drafts, as you can better control who you bid on to build around, In an H2H snake, it would be extremely hard for me to commit to an early pick on him not knowing whether I can get the right pieces for the punt build.

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1 hour ago, StifleTower2 said:

Its been quite a while since his FT% dripped and it correlates strongly with the new FT rules.  He never adapted.

Wait what are the new ft rules??? And how does someone not adapt to it. Isn’t it still 15 ft away on a 10 foot basket?

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2 hours ago, FantasyBallFan said:

Only solution I see for Westbrook being useful in H2H is a FT/TO punt with bigs who can absorb Westbrooks terrible FG%. Even then, his price tag will be too high to justify going that route.

 

Agreed and it’s not just his counting stats.  It’s the fact that he’s old and becoming injury prone on a team that won’t make the playoffs.

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33 minutes ago, Golden Spikes said:

sounds like a cop out

 

The drop correlates strongly with the change in the free throw rules.  If you mean that reason alone doesn’t explain the drop then I’m open to a different explanation.  If you’re saying it doesn’t *justify* it then i agree.  Westbrick is an arrogant piece of s--- who never learned to control his emotions and hasn’t improved because he doesn’t think he has to.  Subsequently, he’s chased away anyone who’s ever played with him. My only hope is that when he’s retired, watching ships sail away in the Caribbean sipping a mai tai he will realize the mistakes he’s made and reflect upon what he could have done differently. 

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8 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

The drop correlates strongly with the change in the free throw rules.  If you mean that reason alone doesn’t explain the drop then I’m open to a different explanation.  If you’re saying it doesn’t *justify* it then i agree.  Westbrick is an arrogant piece of s--- who never learned to control his emotions and hasn’t improved because he doesn’t think he has to.  Subsequently, he’s chased away anyone who’s ever played with him. My only hope is that when he’s retired, watching ships sail away in the Caribbean sipping a mai tai he will realize the mistakes he’s made and reflect upon what he could have done differently. 

yes I am saying the latter, it sounds like a cop out on Westbrooks part, what a garbage person

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16 minutes ago, darkyume said:

 

Jimmy + Russ pairing? Who's gonna chase who out in this scenario? 😂

Jimmy seems more like a drifter.  Goes from place to place blaming everyone for his frustration.  Westy is an acerbic piece of s--- but he’s loyal af.  He’s not moving.  I’d bet the farm on Butler leaving first.  

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21 minutes ago, darkyume said:

 

Jimmy + Russ pairing? Who's gonna chase who out in this scenario? 😂

 

I think you're mistaken the Heat for someone else my friend. It won't be none of that down here. Spoelstra and Riley are men amongst men 💪

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55 minutes ago, sjs1890 said:

Westy is a career 80% from the line, one year doesn't make you a punt ft player lol.

 

2017 - 73%

2018 - 65%

 

That's 2 full seasons of horrific punt FT garbage.  It wouldn't be so bad if it were on little attempts, but he's anchoring that s--- (or reverse anchoring....tanking?).  There's a difference between outlier years and straight up downward trends.  There's no reason to expect the FT to go back up to anywhere close to 80%, and there's a chance it actually gets worse.  Bet on it as you wish, but its one of those decisions that if you're betting on closer to 80% you're really going against a large sample size of recent performance and you really should plan to be in punt FT territory.  

 

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3 hours ago, hipriest69 said:

 

2017 - 73%

2018 - 65%

 

That's 2 full seasons of horrific punt FT garbage.  It wouldn't be so bad if it were on little attempts, but he's anchoring that s--- (or reverse anchoring....tanking?).  There's a difference between outlier years and straight up downward trends.  There's no reason to expect the FT to go back up to anywhere close to 80%, and there's a chance it actually gets worse.  Bet on it as you wish, but its one of those decisions that if you're betting on closer to 80% you're really going against a large sample size of recent performance and you really should plan to be in punt FT territory.  

 

And this is the issue. Dude is not someone you wanted to ever touch in roto with his draft day value, but he was great in H2H even if you were punting 2 categories (and especially in auctions). Now? 3? You can't give him the punting discount, the negatives are way too much to overcome. He needs to get back to where he was at the line to ever be on one of my H2H teams again.

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16 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

And this is the issue. Dude is not someone you wanted to ever touch in roto with his draft day value, but he was great in H2H even if you were punting 2 categories (and especially in auctions). Now? 3? You can't give him the punting discount, the negatives are way too much to overcome. He needs to get back to where he was at the line to ever be on one of my H2H teams again.

 

In auction drafts you can somewhat overcome those deficiencies by targeting specific punt players that help address those. Punt FT% teams usually have high FG% bigs that can negate his FG%, and since you don't care about the FT%, only the TO's are an issue. It requires specific team builds, but definitely possible to win a H2H league with RWB on your team. 

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1 hour ago, Ajax said:

 

In auction drafts you can somewhat overcome those deficiencies by targeting specific punt players that help address those. Punt FT% teams usually have high FG% bigs that can negate his FG%, and since you don't care about the FT%, only the TO's are an issue. It requires specific team builds, but definitely possible to win a H2H league with RWB on your team. 

Dunno man. But sure, anything is possible.

BM has Russ at 28th in value last year, 32nd in per game value. 3 categories is a lot to punt. I've punted 2 plenty of times but you really can't punt 3 and expect to contend for a fantasy title imo.

And if you're paying what he'll cost in an auction (top 10 ADP last year, will probably go earlier this year), you don't want to have to get a bunch of guys to offset those deficiencies either because you've already put yourself in a hole with his overall value. Kind of defeats the purpose of min/maxing in H2H.  It's a massive difference. Would rather have Vucevic than Westbrook because he doesn't hurt you anywhere. Rather have Drummond too because he has his weaknesses, but it's way easier to cover for 1/2 than 3 of them. Especially when they're FG%/FT% because those have strong negative correlations. You can't just assume you'll get a guy like LMA in the next round. There are very few players like that, and Aldridge doesn't even offset the damage Westbrook does in those categories. It would probably take 3 rounds of gunning for guys that are good in both percentage categories to make up for the damage Russ does, especially because of how much damage he did in FT% last year. That's a very hard category to gain in after the first round. 5 of the top 8 guys in FT% value were top 8 players.

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17 hours ago, sjs1890 said:

Westbrook is a beast in h2h formats I would really only take Giannis Harden Curry and maybe AD over Westy in h2h.

 

12 hours ago, sjs1890 said:

Westy is a career 80% from the line, one year doesn't make you a punt ft player lol.

You’re embarrassing yourself 

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