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T.J. Hockenson 2019 Outlook


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TJH is currently getting drafted as about the 12th TE off the board in most formats, ahead of past fantasy reliable guys like Greg Olsen, Jimmy Graham and Kyle Rudolph. Rookie TEs never seem to emerge as reliable fantasy options, but rarely do we see a team invest the type of draft capital the Lions did on a TE (1.08). Does anybody think he can have a legitimate impact as a rookie and emerge as an every-week TE1?

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37 minutes ago, smeeze said:

Didn't think so. Maybe a bye-week filler type?

it has zero to do with the player and everything to do with the organization. We're a dumpster fire. The next time we learn how to properly utilize our talented players will be the first time

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9 hours ago, Joe Odam said:

it has zero to do with the player and everything to do with the organization. We're a dumpster fire. The next time we learn how to properly utilize our talented players will be the first time

Alright. I’m right there with you as a Lions fan, and I’m also biased, but from a fantasy standpoint, where is your argument here? Besides being jaded, come on man. 

Recent examples of the Lions utilizing talented players:

Golden Tate, comes to detroit has 90+ catches 4 years in a row, 1000+ yards 3/4 years. Previous career highs in Seattle: 64 for 898..

Marvin Jones has set a career high in yards here, Calvin Johnson didn’t win sh*t in the playoffs but he speaks for himself. Top 5 WR all time in some people’s eyes, absolute fantasy monster. 

More recent: ROOKIE Kerryon Johnson was pacing top 15-20 fantasy RB until his injury. 

Fact is, we’re here for fantasy, and the lions skill positions can and have consistently been solid fantasy options.

Now, onto Hock. Here’s the deal. The guy might not be a freak athlete, didnt set combine records, but he is money. The dude flat out does not drop the ball. His route running is pristine. His blocking is exceptional. He wasn’t a sexy NFL draft pick, but he’s the kind of guy that helps teams win games by doing the little things. He has no weakness, anywhere. 

But: I am not seeking him out as a fantasy player. He will be sharing time with Jesse James who just got paid starter money. He will be asked to do the gritty things I listed above. He will 100% help spring Kerryon, he will absolutely help Stafford as a reliable security blanket, but I don’t foresee him as a TE1 in fantasy. I think 45-50 for 500-550 and 5 TDs is fair. I’d love to eat my words here, but I think his ceiling is TE7 and we should expect TE 10-14 mainly due to Jesse James in town. 

Edited by Motown_Magic
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  • 3 weeks later...

This kid is already tearing up TC.  His blocking was supposed to be his forte until he learned to receive at the NFL level, but word is he’s already posted double digit TDs in just 2 days of training camp and when they run him on a post route in goal line situations that he can’t be covered.  He’s supposedly catching everything near him and is taking full contact on crossing routes and hangs onto the ball.  Sounds like he is already considered a top receiving option, and with Bevell as an OC he could put up some pretty strong numbers.

 

This kid has the look of a generational talent, and is allegedly humble and modest and does nothing but try to improve all the time.  He apparently is also showing leadership skills and is one of the first ones in line for voluntary work after practice.  It’ll be interesting to see how he progresses in TC and PS.  This guy could be a nice late round redraft pick as so many FFers are skittish at taking rookie TEs in the draft.

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The reason FFers are skittish about taking rookie TEs in the draft is because they don't produce as TE1s. I would think he'll have a big game here or there but it will be hard-to-impossible to predict which game that will be.

 

Also as a Golladay owner I'm not thrilled about Bevell being the OC. Judging by his Seahawks days he seems to be a "you need to establish the run to win" OC retread and I think him being the OC there hurts TJ's (and Golladay's) value, not helps it. 

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1 hour ago, yossarian said:

The reason FFers are skittish about taking rookie TEs in the draft is because they don't produce as TE1s. I would think he'll have a big game here or there but it will be hard-to-impossible to predict which game that will be.

 

Also as a Golladay owner I'm not thrilled about Bevell being the OC. Judging by his Seahawks days he seems to be a "you need to establish the run to win" OC retread and I think him being the OC there hurts TJ's (and Golladay's) value, not helps it. 

 

TEs have steep learning curves at the NFL level.  That’s the reason why rookie TEs tend to underperform in FF.  This kid could be the exception to the rule, and if he’s sitting there late in a draft or you’re filling other spots first and you need a late starter or TE depth, he looks like a good flyer to me.  He’s been going near the 10/11 turn in 12 team ppr drafts.

 

As far as Bevell, yeah he loves to run the football.  But his MO as an OC to date is that his offenses get progressively better for 3-4 years and at their peaks are some of the most productive and high scoring in the league, followed by a crash to mediocre afterwards.  But Graham had a very productive season at TE in SEA and a turd like Visanthe Shiancoe because fantasy relevant at TE under Bevell in MIN.

 

 

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1 hour ago, yossarian said:

The reason FFers are skittish about taking rookie TEs in the draft is because they don't produce as TE1s.

Exactly. In the past 10 years, out of 234 rookies, only one managed TE1 (Evan Engram 2017).

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1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

Exactly. In the past 10 years, out of 234 rookies, only one managed TE1 (Evan Engram 2017).

 

Wow. I may have to rethink my position a bit. Unless that means a rookie TE is overdue to make their mark... ;) 

 

Seriously though, going to be watching Hockenson carefully in PS.  I think he may just be talented enough to break the mold.  Let’s see how Bevell intends to use him.

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17 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Wow. I may have to rethink my position a bit. Unless that means a rookie TE is overdue to make their mark... ;) 

 

Seriously though, going to be watching Hockenson carefully in PS.  I think he may just be talented enough to break the mold.  Let’s see how Bevell intends to use him.

Or if Stafford will throw it to him. 

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On 7/12/2019 at 7:34 PM, Motown_Magic said:

But: I am not seeking him out as a fantasy player. He will be sharing time with Jesse James who just got paid starter money. He will be asked to do the gritty things I listed above. He will 100% help spring Kerryon, he will absolutely help Stafford as a reliable security blanket, but I don’t foresee him as a TE1 in fantasy. I think 45-50 for 500-550 and 5 TDs is fair. I’d love to eat my words here, but I think his ceiling is TE7 and we should expect TE 10-14 mainly due to Jesse James in town. 

Another Lions fan checking in.  I agree with this completely.  I think the talent is there for TJ to be a very productive fantasy TE, but due to Jesse James also being in the mix, I don't think the opportunity is going to be there for him this season.

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  • 4 weeks later...

3 catches for 52 yards in the first half vs the Bills. I keep seeing that stat of rookie tight ends not making top 12 in the last whatever years besides Evan Engram. When’s the last time a TE was taken 8th overall? And how many of them are highly touted as “pro-ready” as TJ? It’s probably just confirmation bias but I can’t help but find myself intrigued.

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On 7/28/2019 at 8:30 PM, Boudewijn said:

Exactly. In the past 10 years, out of 234 rookies, only one managed TE1 (Evan Engram 2017).

I keep seeing this stat thrown around but keep in mind, TJ is the highest drafted TE since 2006 (Vernon Davis). Mind you, Davis didn't have a great rookie year due to injury I believe.

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I joked to my friend that the only pick I would be upset about is if we took a TE. I was hoping Allen would fall, and he didn't. Then we took a TE.  Pettigrew, Ebron, and now Hockenson.  Three 1st round TE in the past decade.

 

Rookie TE, only take if you miss out on someone more stable.  Could be decent or bust.  The offense looks to be passing more and he could get a larger share.  Jesse James did get banged up last night.


I haven't seen a lot of him, just angry over another TE pick and it has nothing to do with him personally!

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10 minutes ago, Sternes said:

I joked to my friend that the only pick I would be upset about is if we took a TE. I was hoping Allen would fall, and he didn't. Then we took a TE.  Pettigrew, Ebron, and now Hockenson.  Three 1st round TE in the past decade.

 

Rookie TE, only take if you miss out on someone more stable.  Could be decent or bust.  The offense looks to be passing more and he could get a larger share.  Jesse James did get banged up last night.


I haven't seen a lot of him, just angry over another TE pick and it has nothing to do with him personally!

 

This kid could easily - easily - be what Kelce or Kittle is.  Would that still fry you about burning a 1st rounder on him?  He’s a classic mismatch at TE and on top of that he blocks the **** out of opponents.  He never has to leave the field.  He could be the gold standard at TE for the next 15 years.

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1 hour ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

This kid could easily - easily - be what Kelce or Kittle is.  Would that still fry you about burning a 1st rounder on him?  He’s a classic mismatch at TE and on top of that he blocks the **** out of opponents.  He never has to leave the field.  He could be the gold standard at TE for the next 15 years.

Exactly. To compare him to every other rookie TE is so lazy it’s incomprehensible. He’s one of the earliest-drafted and most NFL ready TEs ever. The Lions may not make the playoffs but the offense should support 5 fantasy relevant players.

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Hock is my number 1 future fantasy talent in this rookie draft. Obviously drafting RBs that could instantly net you 2-3 1sts early this season in return is the way to go early in dynasty drafts, but Hock is the guy I think will be the most successful over time out of all of them

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Him and fant are my sleepers if I lose out on the big three, Howard and Henry. All the TEs after Henry are the same, I'd rather risk it on a rookie on the rare chance they pull an antonio gates. Worst case they should put up 4 for 40 most weeks like the rest of the dumpster TEs.

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1 hour ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

This kid could easily - easily - be what Kelce or Kittle is.  He could be the gold standard at TE for the next 15 years.

 

He "could" be. Rookie TE's have a tough time adjusting to the game in the NFL. Dynasty league owners can go crazy, however, H2H Redraft is a different beast. He looks like a nice sleeper, but we can't get ahead of ourselves. History does not favor him doing well in his first year. 

 

21 minutes ago, Ruut6 said:

Exactly. To compare him to every other rookie TE is so lazy it’s incomprehensible. 

 

Again, I don't think it's lazy. The numbers state that rookie TE's have a tough time. Can he be different? Sure. The odds aren't there though so tread lightly in non dynasty leagues. I liked what I saw and I am excited to see him progress.

"Over the past 15 years, only two rookie tight ends have produced more than 600 yards receiving. The Giants’ Evan Engram* totaled 722 yards receiving last season (2017), and John Carlson recorded 627 with the Seahawks in 2008."

*OBJ missed 12 games in 2017.

More Rookie TE Performance Overview:

https://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/280521/history-says-rookie-tight-ends-struggle-to-make-immediate-impact

 

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