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T.J. Hockenson 2019 Outlook


smeeze
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7 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

Is Kelce out with injury his week?

To be fair, the Lions just held Ertz to 4/64

 

3 minutes ago, SheikYerbuti said:

I'll check his astrological forecast. Anyone know what sign he is?

Leo, obviously.

Edited by JJ1223
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1 hour ago, KennyWoo said:

I'd be stunned if anyone has still held this guy to this point (outside of dynasty, of course) but the injury and the bye are the gods telling you to drop him if you haven't already.

You know he’s a TE1 (#10) on the season right?

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11 minutes ago, Ruut6 said:

You know he’s a TE1 (#10) on the season right?

 

Yeah, off one outlier blow-up game against the worst team in the league vs. TEs.  After that game - in which virtually nobody started him - people wasted assets to pick him up in an attempt to "chase points."

In three games since, he's caught five balls for 35 yards.  If you've used him in those games, you missed the wedding but showed up for the funeral.

Can you hold numbers like through the bye?  No.  You gotta lose your mind in Detroit... Drop City.

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We get the numbers aren't great, but you have to remember the landscape.  Who are you going to pickup?  At least Hockenson seems to have Staffords eye in the red zone.  Now I was hoping that he would be ok after the bye week, but from the news reports today it doesn't sound good.  So he is definitely a drop candidate now.

 

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10 minutes ago, KennyWoo said:

 

Yeah, off one outlier blow-up game against the worst team in the league vs. TEs.  After that game - in which virtually nobody started him - people wasted assets to pick him up in an attempt to "chase points."

In three games since, he's caught five balls for 35 yards.  If you've used him in those games, you missed the wedding but showed up for the funeral.

Can you hold numbers like through the bye?  No.  You gotta lose your mind in Detroit... Drop City.

Sounds like the Fournette thread. “If he didn’t have those two runs for 180 yards he’d be having a terrible season!” which translates to this thread as “if he didn’t have that overall TE2 game he’d be worthless!”

 

Without that injury, Hockenson is the TE10 getting absolutely peppered with red zone targets including what easily could have been 1+ TDs against Philadelphia.

 

If you were considering dropping him if he didn’t get hurt this week that would have been an awful decision. Nothing has changed in Detroit - he has elite level potential and a QB who targets him in the red zone. Expecting him to be 9 targets for 85 yards every week is just never what was expected in his first four career NFL games.

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2 hours ago, KennyWoo said:

I'd be stunned if anyone has still held this guy to this point (outside of dynasty, of course) but the injury and the bye are the gods telling you to drop him if you haven't already.

 

Here are the best TE's available in my league, where I own Hockenson: (Full Point PPR, 12 teams)

Hockenson has 39.6 (Yes mostly from Wk1)
Jordan Atkins 34.6, (3,4,22,5)
O-Shag-Hennessy 32.6 (7,7,10,9)
Jimmy Graham 30.1 (12,0,0,18)
ODoyle Rules 27.9 (3,4,8,12)
Fant 27.5 (4,7,4,11)
Everett 25.7 (1,5,3,15)
Jarwin 25.3 (12,3,1,8)
Higbee 24.2 (12,4,0,8)

 

O-Shag-Hennessy is the best bet if you just want something from the position but if you're already in a position of 'TE is !@$#!@$!#' then why not shoot for the moon with Hockenson anyways?

Here's a list of all the TEs who have more red zone targets than Hockenson so far this season: (Might not be updated for Week 4 yet?)
Travis Kelce (Early 2nd round pick)
Zach Ertz (Mid 3rd round pick)

That's it.

Now that he's hurt and has the bye?  Fine, I can see cutting him, but anyone who watches the games, knows how often this guy is getting the ball thrown his way EVERY time the Lions get within the 20.  I snagged Herndon but that's still another week away.  Hockenson has been bad, but the alternates are equally as ugly, without nearly the same upside.  Pretending to be 'stunned' that people held on, just means you're pretending to know football and the landscape.

Many of us opted into this when we decided to shade TEs in the draft, so it was an expected weak area.  Landed Waller in 2 leagues with the same strategy and it paid off huge, but this one league ended with Hockenson, and after Week 1 he gained 1-2 weeks of leeway in my lineup, especially when seeing his RZ targets, and called back TDs.  Then this week he hits paydirt again, which only reiterates his TD potential and place on my roster.  There isn't another TE out there with the same odds to score a TD each week.

Jimmy Graham looks like a potential streamer this week, but looks like a trap.  DAL allowed Engram to destroy them week 1, but since then (Granted they haven't played anyone good) They held Vernon Davis to 3/29, O'Leary to 1/19, and Josh Hill to 3/29.  But, likely a high scoring game with a quality QB, is hard to pass up given the options.  Otherwise you're looking at OShagHennessy against CAR who has a allowed a combined 8/51 through 4 games to the TE position this season.

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I was really surprised by the response that Hockenson had avoided IR.  I thought he had a concussion and actually could be back for week 6.  But it sounds like he also has a shoulder issue on top of it.  What are people's thoughts on his return?  Are we talking about many weeks here?  I'd like to try to hold him, but my gut is telling me he isn't coming back anytime soon.  

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14 minutes ago, Islanderman said:

I was really surprised by the response that Hockenson had avoided IR.  I thought he had a concussion and actually could be back for week 6.  But it sounds like he also has a shoulder issue on top of it.  What are people's thoughts on his return?  Are we talking about many weeks here?  I'd like to try to hold him, but my gut is telling me he isn't coming back anytime soon.  

There was an update today -- no concern on the shoulder from the coach.

 

Hes still in the protocol but he has the full bye week to recover. I think we can be optimistic hes back in week 6

 

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I'm stashing him in my dynasty as his opening game showed exactly what he's capable of.  Of course rookies will take time to develop into consistent threats, but he passed the eye test.  I'm also lucky enough to have my other TE already done with their bye week so I can just wait for the consistency to show up again.  Redraft leagues I think he's worth holding onto unless a guy like Herndon is available on the wire.  I don't think I'd go with another rookie in Fant just for the same reasons why holding Hockenson is so frustrating in a redraft league.

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On 9/30/2019 at 10:23 AM, Ruut6 said:

Sounds like the Fournette thread. “If he didn’t have those two runs for 180 yards he’d be having a terrible season!” which translates to this thread as “if he didn’t have that overall TE2 game he’d be worthless!”

 

Without that injury, Hockenson is the TE10 getting absolutely peppered with red zone targets including what easily could have been 1+ TDs against Philadelphia.

 

If you were considering dropping him if he didn’t get hurt this week that would have been an awful decision. Nothing has changed in Detroit - he has elite level potential and a QB who targets him in the red zone. Expecting him to be 9 targets for 85 yards every week is just never what was expected in his first four career NFL games.

 

He had 2 weeks of 1 point dude.  

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He's still a hold until more news comes out on a timetable.  They already said he's going to avoid IR which is good news.  Coach said he was doing well and in good spirits after the game as well.

TE is way too thin to drop someone with this upside.

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