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T.J. Hockenson 2019 Outlook


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I have Kittle and just picked him up in my $500 buy in money league as backup but really looking to sell him or Kittle if this kid blows up, Glassford is going to lock in on one of these receivers and I think it might just be this kid, but let’s see definitely worth a shot over guys like Rudolph, Cook, Graham, and Vance imo he has way high upside then them All hands down

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Just this last Sunday 😁

Glassford? Has played every game since '11. Dude played through a broken back AND dealing with off the field issues. His wife had brain cancer.  

Cancer

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17 hours ago, nonstopfan said:

 

He "could" be. Rookie TE's have a tough time adjusting to the game in the NFL. Dynasty league owners can go crazy, however, H2H Redraft is a different beast. He looks like a nice sleeper, but we can't get ahead of ourselves. History does not favor him doing well in his first year. 

 

 

Again, I don't think it's lazy. The numbers state that rookie TE's have a tough time. Can he be different? Sure. The odds aren't there though so tread lightly in non dynasty leagues. I liked what I saw and I am excited to see him progress.

"Over the past 15 years, only two rookie tight ends have produced more than 600 yards receiving. The Giants’ Evan Engram* totaled 722 yards receiving last season (2017), and John Carlson recorded 627 with the Seahawks in 2008."

*OBJ missed 12 games in 2017.

More Rookie TE Performance Overview:

https://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/280521/history-says-rookie-tight-ends-struggle-to-make-immediate-impact

 

 

How about the last 25 years? Simple fact of the matter is TEs just aren't utilized like they once were unless they have freakish physical traits. That's why there are 5 you want and 25 you can throw a dart at. I had high hopes for gisecki last year, didnt work out, but I'd still rather take a rookie to start out with because unless you have a top five guy you're churning the WW anyway.

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2 hours ago, Brye said:

I have Kittle and just picked him up in my $500 buy in money league as backup but really looking to sell him or Kittle if this kid blows up, Glassford is going to lock in on one of these receivers and I think it might just be this kid, but let’s see definitely worth a shot over guys like Rudolph, Cook, Graham, and Vance imo he has way high upside then them All hands down

Glassford? Has played every game since '11. Dude played through a broken back AND dealing with off the field issues. His wife had brain cancer.

 

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2 minutes ago, this guy right here said:

Glassford? Has played every game since '11. Dude played through a broken back AND dealing with off the field issues. His wife had brain cancer.

 

Wasn’t trying to disrespect him he’s actually a good QB and didn’t know his wife has brain cancer , he’s actually a standup guy and I think lions could be a playoff team this year if this rookie TE goes off with Stafford hemming in on him

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1 hour ago, oban14 said:

 

How about the last 25 years? Simple fact of the matter is TEs just aren't utilized like they once were unless they have freakish physical traits. That's why there are 5 you want and 25 you can throw a dart at. I had high hopes for gisecki last year, didnt work out, but I'd still rather take a rookie to start out with because unless you have a top five guy you're churning the WW anyway.

Only 5 are sure bets? Kelce, ertz, kittle, Howard, Henry? And the rest are darts? Wouldn't you say that there's another tier of better darts than the rest, that includes Vance, cook, njoku, Hooper, and engram?

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On 7/28/2019 at 8:30 PM, Boudewijn said:

Exactly. In the past 10 years, out of 234 rookies, only one managed TE1 (Evan Engram 2017).

 

22 hours ago, KidDynamite420 said:

I keep seeing this stat thrown around but keep in mind, TJ is the highest drafted TE since 2006 (Vernon Davis). Mind you, Davis didn't have a great rookie year due to injury I believe.

 

Its not an entirely accurate stat as there have been more rookie TEs than Engram that were good in their first season: 

https://www.fantasyindex.com/2018/07/10/factoid/rookie-tight-ends

(Not sure why they list Carlson twice)

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13 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

 

Its not an entirely accurate stat as there have been more rookie TEs than Engram that were good in their first season: 

https://www.fantasyindex.com/2018/07/10/factoid/rookie-tight-ends

(Not sure why they list Carlson twice)

 

The threshold that was used in the previous article that I posted was 600 yards. It was a from a fantasy perspective. From a fantasy perspective, are we really looking for TE's that average below 500 yards? The only way to justify such low output is for them to score a huge amount of TD's like Gronk did in 2010 when he scored 10. As for the 600 yards threshold, there have only been just two TE's who have accomplished such a feat (over 600 yards receiving) since 2008 and one of them was Engram in a season where OBJ missed 12 games.

 

However, lets take this a step further by using your link (all stats based on PPR scoring): 

- Based on the list/link that you provided, the top 10 rookie seasons of all time by a TE averaged approximately 137 fantasy points per year.

- In 2018, the top 10 TE's for the season averaged approximately 205 fantasy points for the year (none were rookies).

- In 2018, TE's that finished between 11-20 in scoring averaged approximately 119 points for the year.

 

Ironically, based on PPR ADP, Hockenson is being drafted as a TE12. Right along the lines where you would draft and expect productivity from an "elite" rookie TE. So, if you expect Hockensen to have a rookie impact like Gronk, Shockey, Engram, Hernandez, etc he "could" turn out to be a fringe starter in 2019.

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

 

The threshold that was used in the previous article that I posted was 600 yards. It was a from a fantasy perspective. From a fantasy perspective, are we really looking for TE's that average below 500 yards? The only way to justify such low output is for them to score a huge amount of TD's like Gronk did in 2010 when he scored 10. As for the 600 yards threshold, there have only been just two TE's who have accomplished such a feat (over 600 yards receiving) since 2008 and one of them was Engram in a season where OBJ missed 12 games.

 

However, lets take this a step further by using your link (all stats based on PPR scoring): 

- Based on the list/link that you provided, the top 10 rookie seasons of all time by a TE averaged approximately 137 fantasy points per year.

- In 2018, the top 10 TE's for the season averaged approximately 205 fantasy points for the year (none were rookies).

- In 2018, TE's that finished between 11-20 in scoring averaged approximately 119 points for the year.

 

Ironically, based on PPR ADP, Hockenson is being drafted as a TE12. Right along the lines where you would draft and expect productivity from an "elite" rookie TE. So, if you expect Hockensen to have a rookie impact like Gronk, Shockey, Engram, Hernandez, etc he "could" turn out to be a fringe starter in 2019.

 

 

 

The point is....how many of those 234 rookie TEs were:

(1) drafted top 10

(2) in an offense that throws a lot

(3) immediately the top TE target

(4) drafted primarily to be a passing target

(5) within the past 3 years that offense and passing in the NFL in general have skyrocketed

 

The overwhelming majority of those 234 rookie TEs you are citing were 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th round picks, played out the year as backups, and were generally not even on their QBs’ radars. While it’s helpful to know that rookie TEs generally struggle, I think there’s an argument that there are very few TEs drafted with as much skill and NFL readiness that Hockenson has. By all accounts he’s already their #1 red zone target.

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6 minutes ago, Ruut6 said:

The point is....how many of those 234 rookie TEs were:

(1) drafted top 10

(2) in an offense that throws a lot

(3) immediately the top TE target

(4) drafted primarily to be a passing target

(5) within the past 3 years that offense and passing in the NFL in general have skyrocketed

 

The overwhelming majority of those 234 rookie TEs you are citing were 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th round picks, played out the year as backups, and were generally not even on their QBs’ radars. While it’s helpful to know that rookie TEs generally struggle, I think there’s an argument that there are very few TEs drafted with as much skill and NFL readiness that Hockenson has. By all accounts he’s already their #1 red zone target.

 

I get what you are saying but putting value on a player because of where they were drafted isn't always prudent. Remember, teams have different draft boards and grades for players. Eric Ebron was drafted #10 by the same Detroit Lions (different coaching staff) who were considered a passing team at the time and he finished with 25 receptions, 248 yards and 1 TD. As you know and Lions fans still remember, he is famously remembered for being the player drafted before OBJ.

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7 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

 

The threshold that was used in the previous article that I posted was 600 yards. It was a from a fantasy perspective. From a fantasy perspective, are we really looking for TE's that average below 500 yards? The only way to justify such low output is for them to score a huge amount of TD's like Gronk did in 2010 when he scored 10. As for the 600 yards threshold, there have only been just two TE's who have accomplished such a feat (over 600 yards receiving) since 2008 and one of them was Engram in a season where OBJ missed 12 games.

 

Austin Hooper was TE6 last season in half/full PPR, TE9 in standard. He did that with a pedestrian 71-660-4 line. Plus the difference between TE6 and TE15 is very minimal. 

Guys like Gronk and Henry had lots of TDs in their rookie season but the reason they dont qualify for that 600 yard threshold probably because they had another TE like Hernandez and Gates to cannibalize their numbers. Hockenson's main competition for targets is Jesse James, who has never been really used as a receiver even in pass happy Pittsburgh.

Plus its not out of the question someone like Marvin Jones to get hurt again and more targets are opened up.

 

7 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

- In 2018, the top 10 TE's for the season averaged approximately 205 fantasy points for the year (none were rookies).

 

I find that to be misleading because the top 3 TEs (maybe even Ebron too with his 14 TDs) should be treated as outliers. TE6 to TE12 only averaged 110 fantasy points in half PPR.

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3 hours ago, pbjfb said:

Only 5 are sure bets? Kelce, ertz, kittle, Howard, Henry? And the rest are darts? Wouldn't you say that there's another tier of better darts than the rest, that includes Vance, cook, njoku, Hooper, and engram?

Of those, I would give a nod to engram, njoku and maybe Hooper or cook over the rookies but this is also an ADP thing. None of them are worthy of skipping an rb or a wr at the same values, and I also have a good argument for why each will fail.

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5 hours ago, nonstopfan said:

 

I get what you are saying but putting value on a player because of where they were drafted isn't always prudent. Remember, teams have different draft boards and grades for players. Eric Ebron was drafted #10 by the same Detroit Lions (different coaching staff) who were considered a passing team at the time and he finished with 25 receptions, 248 yards and 1 TD. As you know and Lions fans still remember, he is famously remembered for being the player drafted before OBJ.

Ebron also wasn't even remotely close to be as polished a run blocker as TJ. That's why there's is a lot of hope/hype around TJ as a rookie. Most TEs don't make an impact due to limited snap counts, pecking order and acclimation. So far, from draft pedigree, TC and the eye test in preseason, TJ looks to have all those boxes checked. It's quite possible that the highest drafted TE since 2006 is going to be an outlier stat just like Engram was. Then again he might just fall into obscurity like most people are expecting. Regardless, he's definitely worth a flier if you missed the top 2 tiers in your draft.

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5 hours ago, Evincar said:

 

 

Its not an entirely accurate stat as there have been more rookie TEs than Engram that were good in their first season: 

https://www.fantasyindex.com/2018/07/10/factoid/rookie-tight-ends

(Not sure why they list Carlson twice)

I guess it depends what you call "good". I focused on TE1; I don't really bother with anything less, as you can always get that on the wire. Also note that they tke a slightly larger period, I took 2009-2018 (last 10 years) and they have the range of 2000-2018, so for instance I missed Shockey.

Now let's look at the first couple players on their list:

- Gronk 2010 was TE11 in PPR, TE5 in standard. I missed him as he had only 546 yards, but he had an insane 10 TDs (not insane by his standards of cours, he did it 4 more times).

- Engram 2017 was on my list; he was TE5.

- Shockey 2002 as mentioned was outside my range, but he even managed TE3.

- Carlson 2008 was just outside my range. Obviously his rookie season was 2008, not 2009, and in 2008 he was TE7. 

Then a couple borderline cases which depend on your format:

- Hunter Henry 2016 was TE19 in PPR, but TE11 in Standard, so I guess we can count him too, depending on your format; but he is borderline. Again, less than 500 yards, but 10 TDs.

- Aaron Hernandez 2010 was TE17 in PPR and TE11 in standard, another borderline case (unfortunately in more ways than one).

- Heath Miller 2005 was TE10 in standard and TE13 (again outside my range)

Then they also mention Randy McMichael, but that was clearly a different era - he was TE9 with 485 yds and 4 TDs - that's around TE18 in 2018 terms.

Now let's look at the bigger point I made. Let's count all 4 clear cases, and the 3 borderline cases, so 7 rookies in total in a timeframe from 2000-2018. But there were 493 rookies in that period! So that proves the point I was trying to make: it's really really hard for rookies to break through. Not impossible. Hard.

And as said before, that just doesn't make it a value proposition to me. I'd rather find a cheap 2nd/3rd-year candidate.

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I also checked if high round TE rookies do better, and indeed they do:

image.png.522381c1ec49de5912b89a4614f4f6de.png

The period 2009-2013 has some nice peaks in round 1-2; that was a great period with Gronk, Gresham, Ertz, Eifert, Rudolph, etc. But it's good to remember that over the period of 2000-2018, on average 20 TEs scored over 60 fantasy points standard. So yes, round 1-2 rookies do better, but they're still not a lock for some relevancy in their first year. Just ask Gesicki, Hurst, Shaheen or Gerald Everett.

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From PFF, 

"

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Just now, TomBradyDaGOAT said:

From PFF, 

"



Lions running more 12 personnel to get both TJ and Jesse James (got a fat contract in offseason) on the field together. 2 TE's also help with pass blocking/ run blocking compared to 11. (Both TEs are good blockers)

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Just now, lolcopter said:

Does everyone remember how worthless Ebron was in Detroit? 

 Different coaching staff, and Hockenson's combine/pre draft rating was way higher, similar to Quintin Nelson at guard last year.

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Just now, oban14 said:

 Different coaching staff, and Hockenson's combine/pre draft rating was way higher, similar to Quintin Nelson at guard last year.

Not really, Nelson was touted as a generational talent and appears to be living up to that billing. Detroit TEs have been worthless for quite some time now, and banking on a rookie is not gonna be a fun time. I rode the Engram train his rookie season but that was the perfect storm with injuries and being thrown in the mix. 

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TEs I could see finishing top 5, and wouldn't be surprised at all:

Expected:

 

  • Kelce
  • Kittle
  • Ertz

 

Obvious candidates:

  • Howard
  • Engram
  • Henry

 

Not so obvious candidates (I am happy if I end up with any of these):

  • Graham
  • Hockenson
  • Fant
  • Waller
  • Mark Andrews

 

Guys who have a shot, but I don't really see it (not drafting over anyone listed above):

  • Cook
  • McDonald
  • Njoku
  • Hooper
  • Walker
  • Burton
  • Olsen
  • Rudolph
  • Reed
  • Ebron

 

True dart throws, maybe for deep leagues, like the skills, not planning on taking any in my leagues unless the top two lists are gone:

  • Eifert
  • Gesicki
  • Seals-Jones

 

I have taken Fant and Hockenson in my drafts so far.

 

Edited by oban14
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2 minutes ago, lolcopter said:

Not really, Nelson was touted as a generational talent and appears to be living up to that billing. Detroit TEs have been worthless for quite some time now, and banking on a rookie is not gonna be a fun time. I rode the Engram train his rookie season but that was the perfect storm with injuries and being thrown in the mix. 

 

Bevell Os have been friendly to TEs in the past, and all indicators right now have Hockenson easily living up to his billing as both a receiver and a blocker.  He’s going to see the field a lot - something that doesn’t happen a lot with rookie TEs because generally they have a weakness (or more than one) in their game that they have to learn to overcome.

 

This guy could definitely be the outlier.  His performance to date is consistent with that being the case.

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7 minutes ago, lolcopter said:

Does everyone remember how worthless Ebron was in Detroit? 

Ebron, Hockenson is not. 

Hockenson is a polished blocker and route runner.  Ebron was pure athleticism.  Not to mention different coaching staffs (Ebron never had a competent OC in Detroit, IMO).

I'm not saying that to say that Hock is gonna be a fantasy stud TE, that's still questionable, but I'm just saying that Ebron to Hock is not an intelligent comp.

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