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T.J. Hockenson 2019 Outlook


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Just this last Sunday 😁

Glassford? Has played every game since '11. Dude played through a broken back AND dealing with off the field issues. His wife had brain cancer.  

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4 hours ago, Ruut6 said:

Yeah as someone with Kerryon and Hock I’m worried about Detroit’s success as a team. If they come out 1-5 or something (I don’t think they will), there’s a scenario that they dial back their young guys’ snaps. But if they’re in the hunt early, guys like Golladay/Hock/Kerryon should be feasting in fantasy.

I think the opposite is far more likely to occur.  They'll give the young guys experience and see what they can do if the team is out of contention.  

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How do you guys compare Hock to Darren Waller? Both are unproven but the upside seems to be there. I'm leaning towards Waller since he's the unquestionable pass catching TE for the Raiders and Carr targeted Cook a ton last year.

I'm concerned how much Hock will play as he appears to be the second TE behind Jesse James. I'm wondering about adding him for Waller in case he blows up on Sunday. If he doesn't, Waller plays Monday night so I could drop Hock and add Waller.

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36 minutes ago, RoseLin23 said:

How do you guys compare Hock to Darren Waller? Both are unproven but the upside seems to be there. I'm leaning towards Waller since he's the unquestionable pass catching TE for the Raiders and Carr targeted Cook a ton last year.

I'm concerned how much Hock will play as he appears to be the second TE behind Jesse James. I'm wondering about adding him for Waller in case he blows up on Sunday. If he doesn't, Waller plays Monday night so I could drop Hock and add Waller.

IDK...I felt good about getting Hockenson very late as my TE but just added Waller to see what happens.  

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21 hours ago, RoseLin23 said:

How do you guys compare Hock to Darren Waller? Both are unproven but the upside seems to be there. I'm leaning towards Waller since he's the unquestionable pass catching TE for the Raiders and Carr targeted Cook a ton last year.

I'm concerned how much Hock will play as he appears to be the second TE behind Jesse James. I'm wondering about adding him for Waller in case he blows up on Sunday. If he doesn't, Waller plays Monday night so I could drop Hock and add Waller.

The Hock vs Waller debate is a fair one, but I just have a hard time believing Jesse James will get in the way. He will probably be in for more blocking situations but im confident that Hock is the team’s unquestioned receiving TE. 

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12 minutes ago, bigblue592 said:

The Hock vs Waller debate is a fair one, but I just have a hard time believing Jesse James will get in the way. He will probably be in for more blocking situations but im confident that Hock is the team’s unquestioned receiving TE. 

Depends on Bevell and how much 2TE they want to use vs 1TE/3WR or even 2RB.

2018 Seattle doesn’t much too much sense to look at considering their TEs were Vannett, Dissly, and Dickson. But they basically averaged 1 TE per snap with Vannett getting 50% of the snaps.

2017 Seattle when they had Graham (more of a receiver) and Luke Willson (more of a blocker), they averaged 1.31 TEs per snap with Graham seeing 69% of the snaps and 96 targets (6 per game) and getting 10 TDs.

My guess is we’ll see 2 TE snaps about 20-25% of the time, Hock will see ~65% of the snaps, and James will see about ~60%.

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22 hours ago, RoseLin23 said:

How do you guys compare Hock to Darren Waller? Both are unproven but the upside seems to be there. I'm leaning towards Waller since he's the unquestionable pass catching TE for the Raiders and Carr targeted Cook a ton last year.

I'm concerned how much Hock will play as he appears to be the second TE behind Jesse James. I'm wondering about adding him for Waller in case he blows up on Sunday. If he doesn't, Waller plays Monday night so I could drop Hock and add Waller.

 

We have seen the same thing repeatedly with Waller.  He looks great in OTAs, coaches rave about his athleticism in PS, and then regular season comes and he can’t even get 20 targets in a season with 2 teams that were very needy for receiving help.

 

A Brown ain’t Jordy Nelson.  and Ty Williams is better than where Nelson was last year.  Those two are going to be major cogs in the passing game.  I’m not expecting this sudden massive surge in production from Waller.

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52 minutes ago, Ruut6 said:

Depends on Bevell and how much 2TE they want to use vs 1TE/3WR or even 2RB.

2018 Seattle doesn’t much too much sense to look at considering their TEs were Vannett, Dissly, and Dickson. But they basically averaged 1 TE per snap with Vannett getting 50% of the snaps.

2017 Seattle when they had Graham (more of a receiver) and Luke Willson (more of a blocker), they averaged 1.31 TEs per snap with Graham seeing 69% of the snaps and 96 targets (6 per game) and getting 10 TDs.

My guess is we’ll see 2 TE snaps about 20-25% of the time, Hock will see ~65% of the snaps, and James will see about ~60%.

2018 Seattle also doesn't make too much sense because Bevell wasn't with the team.

The thing about Hockenson is there are just too many unknown variables:  He's a rookie.  The HC is only in his 2nd year.  The OC is in his first year with the team and has just taken a year off of football.  Lions schemes in the preseason have been super vanilla so we still don't have a great idea of what the offense will really be like.  There is also another good young TE in the mix that just got paid TE1 money.  Any attempt at a projection is just an exercise in futility.

My view on Hock is this; do I want him in my starting lineup week 1?  No.  Do I want him on my bench so I'm not fighting the mob if/when he blows up?  Yes, absolutely.  The potential is there to be an impact fantasy TE, but whether that potential will be achieved, only time will tell.

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3 minutes ago, The G Man said:

Anyone else starting him week 1? I pretty much have to, he's my only TE.

 

 

I am. I took him late and figured if he’s a letdown, there’s enough out there to stream or find someone later on (that dude from the Jets). 

 

TE is such a crapshoot I wanted to go with the upside and it seems like he has a good situation and skill set- why not.

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He's my backup (Engram/Henry) in both leagues that I have him, so I'm not starting him. Love the potential, but I always worry about rookie TEs. Seems it takes them a bit of time to be fantasy relevant more times than not.

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58 minutes ago, The G Man said:

Anyone else starting him week 1? I pretty much have to, he's my only TE.

Same here. Back up TEs are wasted RB depth so yeah, I'm starting him with some level of confidence. 

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For some reason I am jealous a league mate picked this guy up for free and I took Evan engram in the 6th. I have a hunch this guy can go 700 yards 6 TDS in his rookie season, not sure why. Just the target distribution can be there and co-3rd option. Obviously problem is play volume and Stafford sucking. But I wonder if the play this year was to go zero-TE And just get these undrafted guys

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12 hours ago, JJ1223 said:

2018 Seattle also doesn't make too much sense because Bevell wasn't with the team.

The thing about Hockenson is there are just too many unknown variables:  He's a rookie.  The HC is only in his 2nd year.  The OC is in his first year with the team and has just taken a year off of football.  Lions schemes in the preseason have been super vanilla so we still don't have a great idea of what the offense will really be like.  There is also another good young TE in the mix that just got paid TE1 money.  Any attempt at a projection is just an exercise in futility.

My view on Hock is this; do I want him in my starting lineup week 1?  No.  Do I want him on my bench so I'm not fighting the mob if/when he blows up?  Yes, absolutely.  The potential is there to be an impact fantasy TE, but whether that potential will be achieved, only time will tell.

 

Exactly this. TE rookies are so rarely effective, but once he's got a few weeks under his belt (both practice and games) then we can all see the potential.

Kelce has a bye in wk12. If Hockenson starts to look the business before then I've got a great trade chip. If he doesn't then no real harm done. I agree that there's something about this guy that suggests he could blow up in a big way...for a TE at least.

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Own Hockenson in 100% of my leagues. For the first several games he will only see 50-70% snap counts but will be peppered with targets on those plays. Around mid-season he will be full starter. I bet he breaks 100 targets and is a top-10 TE. In future seasons he will be a huge target monster. Everything points to Hock being an immediate monster except the failures of other TEs who either didn't have the talent or the situation to make a big impact immediately. Hock is an elite TE talent with great receiving and blocking skills and strong intangibles and he joins an offense that is perfect for TEs but doesn't have any good ones with a quarterback who has been in dire need of a security blanket. Hock will be the best TE in the league within 5 years and a top-40 pick next year. 

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Just now, rex_bulkhead said:

Own Hockenson in 100% of my leagues. For the first several games he will only see 50-70% snap counts but will be peppered with targets on those plays. Around mid-season he will be full starter. I bet he breaks 100 targets and is a top-10 TE. In future seasons he will be a huge target monster. Everything points to Hock being an immediate monster except the failures of other TEs who either didn't have the talent or the situation to make a big impact immediately. Hock is an elite TE talent with great receiving and blocking skills and strong intangibles and he joins an offense that is perfect for TEs but doesn't have any good ones with a quarterback who has been in dire need of a security blanket. Hock will be the best TE in the league within 5 years and a top-40 pick next year. 

I fully expect this to make me look very dumb if this doesn't turnout to be the case

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19 minutes ago, rex_bulkhead said:

I fully expect this to make me look very dumb if this doesn't turnout to be the case

 

Ehhhh, not that unreasonable of a take. Given he was picked 8th overall at a position not normally selected that high, if he doesn’t become elite it will be a let down.

Edited by MJJ28
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