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T.J. Hockenson 2019 Outlook


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I picked him 4th to last just because my other TE is weak and why not. Jesse James isn't bad though right? I mean I know James is more a blocker but I bet they use him just as much and it cuts into what TJH could do, plus rookie. I see him as my first cut a FA unless he blows up week 1.

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Just this last Sunday ūüėĀ

Glassford? Has played every game since '11. Dude played through a broken back AND dealing with off the field issues. His wife had brain cancer.  

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I'm late to this thread, but here are all of the rookie TE's who gained at least 500 yards receiving since the merger in 1970:

  Games Receiving
Rk Player Year Age Draft Tm Lg G GS Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Y/G Ctch% Y/Tgt
1 Jeremy Shockey 2002 22 1-14 NYG NFL 15 14 128 74 894 12.08 2 59.6 57.8% 6.98
2 Keith Jackson 1988 23 1-13 PHI NFL 16 15   81 869 10.73 6 54.3    
3 Charle Young 1973 22 1-6 PHI NFL 14 14   55 854 15.53 6 61.0    
4 Evan Engram 2017 23 1-23 NYG NFL 15 11 115 64 722 11.28 6 48.1 55.7% 6.28
5 Cam Cleeland 1998 23 2-40 NOR NFL 16 16 88 54 684 12.67 6 42.8 61.4% 7.77
6 Russ Francis 1975 22 1-16 NWE NFL 14 11   35 636 18.17 4 45.4    
7 Ken Dilger 1995 24 2-48 IND NFL 16 13 55 42 635 15.12 4 39.7 76.4% 11.55
8 John Carlson 2008 24 2-38 SEA NFL 16 9 80 55 627 11.40 5 39.2 68.8% 7.84
9 Ozzie Newsome* 1978 22 1-23 CLE NFL 16 16   38 589 15.50 2 36.8    
10 Junior Miller 1980 23 1-7 ATL NFL 16 14   46 584 12.70 9 36.5    
11 Ferrell Edmunds 1988 23 3-73 MIA NFL 16 14   33 575 17.42 3 35.9    
12 Bob Tucker 1970 25   NYG NFL 14 13   40 571 14.28 5 40.8    
13 Tim Wright 2013 23   TAM NFL 16 8 76 54 571 10.57 5 35.7 71.1% 7.51
14 Aaron Hernandez 2010 21 4-113 NWE NFL 14 7 64 45 563 12.51 6 40.2 70.3% 8.80
15 Walter White 1975 24 3-78 KAN NFL 14 1   23 559 24.30 3 39.9    
16 Raymond Chester 1970 22 1-24 OAK NFL 14 12   42 556 13.24 7 39.7    
17 Tony Moeaki 2010 23 3-93 KAN NFL 15 15 73 47 556 11.83 3 37.1 64.4% 7.62
18 Mark Andrews 2018 22 3-86 BAL NFL 16 3 50 34 552 16.24 3 34.5 68.0% 11.04
19 Rob Gronkowski 2010 21 2-42 NWE NFL 16 11 59 42 546 13.00 10 34.1 71.2% 9.25
20 Dustin Keller 2008 24 1-30 NYJ NFL 16 6 78 48 535 11.15 3 33.4 61.5% 6.86
Rk Player Year Age Draft Tm Lg G GS Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Y/G Ctch% Y/Tgt
21 Pete Mitchell 1995 24 4-122 JAX NFL 16 5 64 41 527 12.85 2 32.9 64.1% 8.23
22 Robert Awalt 1987 23 3-62 STL NFL 12 9   42 526 12.52 6 43.8    
23 Tony McGee 1993 22 2-37 CIN NFL 15 15 70 44 525 11.93 0 35.0 62.9% 7.50
24 Dan Ross 1979 22 2-30 CIN NFL 16 16   41 516 12.59 1 32.3    
25 George Kittle 2017 24 5-146 SFO NFL 15 7 63 43 515 11.98 2 34.3 68.3% 8.17
26 Mark Bavaro 1985 22 4-100 NYG NFL 16 16   37 511 13.81 4 31.9    
27 Freddie Jones 1997 23 2-45 SDG NFL 13 8 69 41 505 12.32 2 38.8 59.4% 7.32
28 Chris Herndon 2018 22 4-107 NYJ NFL 16 12 56 39 502 12.87 4 31.4 69.6% 8.96

So 28 rookie TE's in 49 NFL seasons have gained 500 yards receiving.
Bump up to 600 yards and you have 8 rookie TE's in 49 NFL seasons.

That doesn't mean Hockenson can't have a good fantasy season. It's possible. And yards aren't the only thing that can lead to a good season, as Gronk had only 546 yards as a rookie, but he also had 10 TD's. Maybe Hockenson will beat the odds for rookie TE's. But that's what he'll have to do...beat the odds.
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It's always seemed foolish to me that we judge what any current rookie can do based on what previous rookies have done.

 

How highly they were drafted (and I notice 7 of the top 10 rookie TE yardage seasons were accomplished by first round picks...), the role they were drafted to fill, the player's individual skillset/upside, the surrounding talent, the coaching staff... these are all variables that can't be directly compared to any previous rookie. 

 

I see Evan Engram's rookie season as a great projection for Hock. 64/722/6 incoming. 

Edited by mjb03003
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It has always seemed foolish to me that some people ignore stats in a game of stats. The stats show most rookie previous rookie TE's have not done very well for fantasy purposes. That of course does not mean that Hockenson will also not do well. Most of us are still considering Hockenson's situation in their assessments. 

But I personally like to be aware of historical stats, to have an idea of how tough a road a player at a certain position might have. If one believes in a player's talent and situation, then by all means they should pick the player...and hope that the player can beat the odds. 

Edited by Corleone
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Data says rookie TEs are a wasteland. There are a few outliers but not many. Pair that with the Jesse James signing, Det's desire to run the football AND how good of a blocker TJ is and I don't see the opportunity for him to be a reliable TE1. He will have select weeks but thats about it. 

Two years from now and we're talking about this kid in the top 5 easily.

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48 minutes ago, Corleone said:

I'm late to this thread, but here are all of the rookie TE's who gained at least 500 yards receiving since the merger in 1970:

So 28 rookie TE's in 49 NFL seasons have gained 500 yards receiving.
Bump up to 600 yards and you have 8 rookie TE's in 49 NFL seasons.

That doesn't mean Hockenson can't have a good fantasy season. It's possible. And yards aren't the only thing that can lead to a good season, as Gronk had only 546 yards as a rookie, but he also had 10 TD's. Maybe Hockenson will beat the odds for rookie TE's. But that's what he'll have to do...beat the odds.

Good data, yes, but I think it's also fair to point out that while we're looking at a nearly 50-year sample size, 4 of those 28 seasons (14%) have been in the last 2 years.  That's not insignificant.  The game is changing and rookie TEs are better able to have success than they were 10, 20, 30 years ago.

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1 hour ago, mjb03003 said:

It's always seemed foolish to me that we judge what any current rookie can do based on what previous rookies have done.

 

How highly they were drafted (and I notice 7 of the top 10 rookie TE yardage seasons were accomplished by first round picks...), the role they were drafted to fill, the player's individual skillset/upside, the surrounding talent, the coaching staff... these are all variables that can't be directly compared to any previous rookie. 

 

I see Evan Engram's rookie season as a great projection for Hock. 64/722/6 incoming. 

 

That's exactly what I was thinking too, and I would be very happy with that. Hoping it starts week #1 though, as a Montgomery owner I'm already in the hole!

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2 hours ago, JJ1223 said:

Good data, yes, but I think it's also fair to point out that while we're looking at a nearly 50-year sample size, 4 of those 28 seasons (14%) have been in the last 2 years.  That's not insignificant.  The game is changing and rookie TEs are better able to have success than they were 10, 20, 30 years ago.

True about the last two years, as 4 TE's have gotten above the 500-yard threshold. But that also doesn't mean those TE's have all been good fantasy assets. 

--Engram: #5 TE in 2017 (Engram as has been noted, had Odell out almost all season - 12 games - which certainly helped his stats)
--Kittle: #19 TE in 2017
--Herndon: #15 TE in 2018
--Andrews: #16 TE in 2018

Agreed towards the game always changing as well. Though it is interesting that of every 5-year block since the merger, this is the breakdown for rookie TE's to hit 500 yards...

1970 to 1974: 3 TE's
1975 to 1979: 4 TE's
1980 to 1984: 1 TE
1985 to 1989: 4 TE's
1990 to 1994: 1 TE
1995 to 1999: 4 TE's
2000 to 2004: 1 TE
2005 to 2009: 2 TE's
2010 to 2014: 4 TE's
2015 to 2018: 4 TE's

The later block of course still has 2019 to go, so it has one less year than all the other blocks. Overall, this decade has been the most successful in quantity to reach 500 yards, but 8 to 7 over the 1970's with one year to go is not a huge advantage. And considering how many more pass attempts there are nowadays, one would think the advantage would be even higher. 

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On 9/6/2019 at 8:44 AM, coleporter said:

Is Waller a better alternative?

 

On 9/6/2019 at 10:48 AM, JJ1223 said:

With AB: flip a coin.  Without AB: Waller.

 

Welp, looks like it's without AB. 

Waller still a better option than Hockenson?

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Hockenson's a late round flier and I see no reason why you wouldn't want to take a chance on him. 

How many tight ends drafted in the last round get over 500 yards?  No one's telling you to take Hockenson in the 8th round or whatever.  He can block which can keep him on the field.  If Stafford likes him he's gonna have a chance to reach is potential faster than others tight ends.

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T.J. Will 100 percent have weeks where he is worthy of a stream. He's going to soak up some targets especially when Amendola gets injured. He has the talent and opportunity to be a top-6 fantasy TE. Definitely worthy of a stash spot if you have someone you want to drop. Wouldn't start him Week 1 though.

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I am starting this guy in 2 of my 3 leagues and I am prepared to take the good weeks with the bad, just like everyone else who doesn't own Kelce/Ertz/Kittle.  I never draft a TE before the 10th round, because I prefer to have the advantage at QB, RB and WR.  There will only be 3 teams in your league who have an advantage at TE and then everyone else is in the same boat hoping their TE doesn't put up a goose egg that week.  If this guy can put up more than 0 points every week, I will be happy with him.  

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2 minutes ago, chief79 said:

I am starting this guy in 2 of my 3 leagues and I am prepared to take the good weeks with the bad, just like everyone else who doesn't own Kelce/Ertz/Kittle.  I never draft a TE before the 10th round, because I prefer to have the advantage at QB, RB and WR.  There will only be 3 teams in your league who have an advantage at TE and then everyone else is in the same boat hoping their TE doesn't put up a goose egg that week.  If this guy can put up more than 0 points every week, I will be happy with him.  

My boy Hunter Henry not gonna put up a single goose egg all year

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Just for ish's and giggles, I went back to see what my starting TE's did weeks 15 & 16 in my one 12 team league that I have won 5 of the last 7 years.  Here are their stats; 

2018 Brate -  Week 15 0 pts  -  Week 16 0 pts

2017 Olsen -  Week 15 20 pts   - Week 16 2 pts

2014 Fleener - Week 15 3 pts   - Week 16 3 pts

2013 J. Cameron - Week 15 2 pts   -  Week 16 0 pts

2012 D. Clark - Week 15 4 pts  -  Week 16 3 pts

With the exception of Olsen in 2017/week 15 putting up 20 points, none of these guys helped me out at all in the playoffs.  Also somewhat interesting, I looked at my draft recap for those years and none of the TE's in my lineup week 15 & 16 were the ones I drafted.  I guess that could be chalked up to drafting a TE in round 10 or later.  So my question is if Hockenson is still healthy week 15 & 16, do you think he can do any worse than any of the guys above?

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