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T.J. Hockenson 2019 Outlook


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1 hour ago, Singing in Dwayne said:

TE just isn't a valuable position in fantasy because you only have to start 1. It's much more important to invest in WRs/RBs to protect yourself from injury. Streaming TEs last year finished as the 5th best TE. A rookie TE on a run-heavy offense with a poor OL doesn't project to do well longterm.

 

With that said, maybe he can overcome this hurdle because I'll admit that the talent is very real. I'd be very hesitant to use a # 1 waiver on him though.

 

The diff between a top tier TE and what the majority have is huge. It doesnt matter how many you start it matters how many more points the best ones score then everybody else. TE isnt a position like QB where leagues start one and it runs deep.  Kittle was one of the most common players on title teams last season.

I do agree with not wanting to draft a TE early because you need more RBs/WRs and you lose depth there by drafting one of the top guys in the first couple rounds. Teams that can grab a guy like Ingram in the middle or Hock late this season will be at a huge advantage over teams who're hoping for a 4/50 or a random TD from the TE spot. 

Edited by buzzkilloton
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2 minutes ago, buzzkilloton said:

 

The diff between a top tier TE and what the majority have is huge. It doesnt matter how many you start it matters how many more points the best ones score then everybody else. TE isnt a position like QB where leagues start one and it runs deep.  Kittle was one of the most common players on title teams last season.

Kittle last year came to owners cheap, meaning they didn't have to burn a high draft pick to get stud performance from their TE. Hock presents the same opportunity. Kelce might remain a bigger stud than Hock but his owners had to forego taking another RB or WR with their 2nd rounder

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3 hours ago, KennyWoo said:

 

Rook, the guy had 131 yards and a TD; 25.1 points in PPR.  Don't get your feelings hurt to think he probably won't eclipse that again.  It's a huge number.

Here's how many games Travis Kelce had last season with more than 25.1 points in PPR: four.  And Kelce is an elite beast who was on one of the best offenses in league history last year and the focal point of the passing game.  Ertz did it three times and, again, has a track record of production and being the #1 target on his offense.  TJ Hockenson is a rookie on a team that usually doesn't use the tight end, just played a poor Arizona squad, and played 75 minutes, something that the Lions probably won't do for another 20 years.

Have some perspective.

 

Don't talk to me about "perspective".  They've never had a TE the caliber of Hockenson under Matt Patricia who BY THE WAY came from the Gronk-influenced Patriots.  They didn't draft the kid to not use him.  Let's not forget he faces the Chargers, Eagles, and Chiefs in the next three weeks.

Edited by RockSexton
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3 hours ago, FritzLn said:

 

agreed with all this, but it should be noted he only had 1 catch for 7 yards in OT

http://www.nflsavant.com/targets.php?ddlTeam=DET&ddlYear=2019&week=1&rz=all&ddlPosition=

 

What is the significance of such an isolated stat line?   Is he only going to play in 10min OT's the rest of the year?  

tenor.gif

Edited by RockSexton
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8 hours ago, RockSexton said:

 

What is the significance of such an isolated stat line?   Is he only going to play in 10min OT's the rest of the year?  

tenor.gif

No you clown 

He mentioned that he played 75 mins.

I was making the point that it's not like he accumulated a large percentage of his stats in the extra period

Everyone is a comedian

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[AC posts removed.  Guys, we know it's early in the season, but if your post is about your individual league, your roster configuration, etc. it does not belong here.  Long-time users posting and/or responding to AC questions will not be given benefit of the doubt with courtesy warnings.]

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6 minutes ago, Thinkingcap said:

My only question mark for this dude is... when was the last time a rookie tightend made an immediate impact?  I can't think of any...

Even Engram I think.  It's rare.

But we just had one game of impact from Hockenson.   I know it's just one game but it's confirmation that he's capable. 

I guess the real question should be limited to TE picked in the 1st round.   I don't know the answer to this.

Edit : Yikes...I just spot checked this and there have been some pretty uninspiring 1st round TEs.  

Edited by K197040
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It takes so much more effort to come up with reasons Hockenson won't have an immediate impact and be fantasy relevant as a rookie than it does to come up with reasons he will. 

 

Sometimes it's just as simple as it looks. He's big and strong, he was taken #8 overall, his QB is looking for him, the OC is calling plays designed to get him the ball, he's already shown he's capable of making plays. 

 

Don't overthink it people.  

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2 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

It takes so much more effort to come up with reasons Hockenson won't have an immediate impact and be fantasy relevant as a rookie than it does to come up with reasons he will. 

 

Sometimes it's just as simple as it looks. He's big and strong, he was taken #8 overall, his QB is looking for him, the OC is calling plays designed to get him the ball, he's already shown he's capable of making plays. 

 

Don't overthink it people.  

There’s only one reason, but it’s a strong one: rookie TEs never do anything in fantasy. Precedent matters.

But like you said, so does reacting to what you see. And there are exceptions to every rule. Evan Engram was one himself, though as most would point out that was a unique situation with the rest of the pass-catchers going down with injury. But maybe Hock’s a unique situation too? Maybe he’s just so talented he demands targets? Maybe Stafford already trusts him more than any other Lions pass-catcher? Who knows, but he’s absolutely someone worth keeping an eye on.

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18 minutes ago, Fierylady said:

There’s only one reason, but it’s a strong one: rookie TEs never do anything in fantasy. Precedent matters.

But like you said, so does reacting to what you see. And there are exceptions to every rule. Evan Engram was one himself, though as most would point out that was a unique situation with the rest of the pass-catchers going down with injury. But maybe Hock’s a unique situation too? Maybe he’s just so talented he demands targets? Maybe Stafford already trusts him more than any other Lions pass-catcher? Who knows, but he’s absolutely someone worth keeping an eye on.

 

Yeah, every situation is unique and should be analyzed as such. Hock is definitely so talented that he demands targets. Stafford definitely already trusts him. I won't say more than any other Lions pass-catcher (yet) but he's already in the mix. He was drafted specifically to fill this role. His pedigree, athletic profile, scouting reports, whatever you want to look at... all the boxes were checked. Going into the draft he was considered one of the best TE prospects in YEARS and the Lions liked what they saw and got their guy. He doesn't need to have a difficult adjustment to the pros just because most other rookie TEs do/did. 

Edited by mjb03003
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Ah right Evan Engrams definitely made an impact.  Now that was due to the fact that everyone dropped like flies.  I did notice that the team was scripting to get TJ some targets, but again one thing that has me skeptical is the number of targets he will be receiving.  He will still need to compete for targets among Kenny G, MJJ, Amendola and KJ.  This team is not going to throw a lot as we all know.  People were hesitant to draft MJJ because of the lack of targets avail even when Tate was out of the equation.  Again, not saying he's not special but I am just always wary of first year TEs making an immediate impact.

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Just now, affliction said:

This team can't support him Jones and Golladay every week especially with Amendola in the picture. Don't bid too much

Sorry, but Hockenson is more likely to cause a decline those receivers numbers. Hockamania is about to run wild!

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4 hours ago, mjb03003 said:

 

Yeah, every situation is unique and should be analyzed as such. Hock is definitely so talented that he demands targets. Stafford definitely already trusts him. I won't say more than any other Lions pass-catcher (yet) but he's already in the mix. He was drafted specifically to fill this role. His pedigree, athletic profile, scouting reports, whatever you want to look at... all the boxes were checked. Going into the draft he was considered one of the best TE prospects in YEARS and the Lions liked what they saw and got their guy. He doesn't need to have a difficult adjustment to the pros just because most other rookie TEs do/did. 

 

Agree on the bolded part.  On the plays that went to Hock, he was stafford's first and only read.  They also appeared to run plays specifically to get hock open (e.g. lining up next to the qb, running through the line and then running a corner route pass an unsuspecting linebacker.  He was also a very nice dink and dunk sure short yardage option with chance for YAC when the defense went zone.  

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