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T.J. Hockenson 2019 Outlook


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[...] He looked like an absolute matchup nightmare out there, granted it was against a pretty undisciplined AZ D.  He looked every bit as fast, fluid, and athletic as guys like Kelce, Kittle, etc.  In a keeper league I want the next BIG thing and I think it could be Hock.

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On 9/10/2019 at 12:35 PM, Thinkingcap said:

My only question mark for this dude is... when was the last time a rookie tightend made an immediate impact?  I can't think of any...

 

Engram is the best case. Gronk a few years previously. Hunter Henry had a solid year in 2016, but was held back splitting time with HOF TE Antonio Gates. So it's rare but not impossible for a rookie TE to be productive.

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8 hours ago, Ace_King said:

 

Engram is the best case. Gronk a few years previously. Hunter Henry had a solid year in 2016, but was held back splitting time with HOF TE Antonio Gates. So it's rare but not impossible for a rookie TE to be productive.

 

The other thing to consider, Hockenson is one of only 3 tight ends to be drafted in the first 8 picks of the NFL draft in the last 25 years.

He posted a 49/760/6 (with another rushing TD) his last year at Iowa (13 games), which is pretty impressive considering that Iowa is a massively run-oriented offense, and that he was also competing for targets against Noah Fant, who was literally the #2 TE drafted this year and a first rounder himself.

Rookie TE's generally don't produce much, but this kid is special. A 55/850/5 season is well within reach (which would put him at #6 last season) and there's upside beyond that.

Edited by vercrazy
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1 minute ago, Nap Time said:

 

AKA he's probably going to be on the field for about 90% of snaps.  This is a no brainer people.

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gonna haunt me if this guy turns out like this year's kittle. Unfortunately I had Engram but I needed another WR therefore I went for Terry Mclaurin. However I value Hock as the #1 waiver wire add this week overall versus malcom brown, marquise brown, mark andrews, waller, bernard, rojo, terry mclaurin. Maybe I shoulda took best available and flipped a TE for a better WR. 

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I understand the hype. TE is usually the bleakest position in FF and here you have a top 10 draft selection dominating in his 1st NFL game.

We shouldn't expect too much from Hock though. TE1 season is totally within reason. But top 5 will be tough. Watch the game and look at the Cardinals safeties. They have a pretty good duo in Budda Baker and DJ Swearinger. They were playing over the top to help their starting CB duo which was rookie Byron Murphy in his 1st NFL action and Tramaine Brock aka The Toast. With All Pro CB Patrick Peterson and starting CB Robert Alford out, the Cardinals did all in their power to prevent Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones from feasting on them deep. This left the middle open for Hock and Amendola to wreak havoc. Their LBs are weak and can't cover. Their slot CB is some UDFA practice squad dude.

Now after putting a damper on Hock, I'm outta here... ☠️

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On 9/10/2019 at 5:23 PM, Mathew Berry said:

 

Agree on the bolded part.  On the plays that went to Hock, he was stafford's first and only read.  They also appeared to run plays specifically to get hock open (e.g. lining up next to the qb, running through the line and then running a corner route pass an unsuspecting linebacker.  He was also a very nice dink and dunk sure short yardage option with chance for YAC when the defense went zone.  


This is the H-back usage I was referring to with Hock. It sets him up to be lined up against an inside linebacker (matchup mismatch). Reason why it is so successful is because Hock is a great blocker... he can handle and block that same inside linebacker on running plays. Since Hock is a great receiver and blocker, the defense cannot cheat either way- put a corner or safety on Hock as an H-back and Stafford will audible to a run play where Hock can destroy the smaller defender in blocking. Keep the inside linebacker on Hock and he will destroy them in the open field on routes. 

Goes without saying that Hock has already proven that he can handle safety coverage and has also proven he can block the inside linebackers. He can really do it all and he often has a mismatch on the field. 

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Let me get this straight...

 

- 1st round draft pick

- considered best tight end in college

- touted as nfl ready and an exceptional blocker by many scouts (some even say best blocker for position out of college they’ve ever seen)

- runs crisp routes that are 20+ yards and has great hands 

OHHHH and btw...

 

-his coach was a coach for the team that arguably had the BEST TIGHT END OF ALL TIME. So he knows how to use him. 

 

Top 5 ROS really that crazy? Hock N’ Roll boys. 

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4 minutes ago, FantasyGOAT said:

Let me get this straight...

 

- 1st round draft pick

- considered best tight end in college

- touted as nfl ready and an exceptional blocker by many scouts (some even say best blocker for position out of college they’ve ever seen)

- runs crisp routes that are 20+ yards and has great hands 

OHHHH and btw...

 

-his coach was a coach for the team that arguably had the BEST TIGHT END OF ALL TIME. So he knows how to use him. 

 

Top 5 ROS really that crazy? Hock N’ Roll boys. 

Also has a Gunslinger QB.

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12 minutes ago, FantasyGOAT said:

Let me get this straight...

 

- 1st round draft pick

- considered best tight end in college

- touted as nfl ready and an exceptional blocker by many scouts (some even say best blocker for position out of college they’ve ever seen)

- runs crisp routes that are 20+ yards and has great hands 

OHHHH and btw...

 

-his coach was a coach for the team that arguably had the BEST TIGHT END OF ALL TIME. So he knows how to use him. 

 

Top 5 ROS really that crazy? Hock N’ Roll boys. 

 

You're forgetting that rookie TEs historically struggle. So you're supposed to ignore everything else you know about Hock and just look at the other TEs before him. 

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Let's toss rookie TEs out of the conversation.

Rookie PASS CATCHERS typically struggle. There's only been 15 rookie WRs with 1,000 yards since 1970. It's one of the most difficult positions to transition into from college. Not only do you have completely different rules, pass catchers are drastically impacted by the change in NFL speed, strength, and overall skill increase. You then factor in that they only get a couple months to build chemistry with their QB and a lot is going against them. 

That being said, you don't have to be a world beater to be a viable TE in fantasy. I would just pump the breaks on top 5 TE talk. 

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4 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Let's toss rookie TEs out of the conversation.

Rookie PASS CATCHERS typically struggle. There's only been 15 rookie WRs with 1,000 yards since 1970. It's one of the most difficult positions to transition into from college. Not only do you have completely different rules, pass catchers are drastically impacted by the change in NFL speed, strength, and overall skill increase. You then factor in that they only get a couple months to build chemistry with their QB and a lot is going against them. 

That being said, you don't have to be a world beater to be a viable TE in fantasy. I would just pump the breaks on top 5 TE talk. 

 

Look, I get it. If your only option was to either always invest in rookie pass catchers or never invest in rookie pass catchers, you would be wise to avoid them altogether. You'd be better off a majority of the time, even if every once in a while you'd miss out on a transcendent season. 

 

My issue is that there is no such either/or scenario in fantasy football. You can draft TJ Hockenson and STILL maintain a belief that rookie pass catchers are generally a terrible investment. 

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59 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

 

Look, I get it. If your only option was to either always invest in rookie pass catchers or never invest in rookie pass catchers, you would be wise to avoid them altogether. You'd be better off a majority of the time, even if every once in a while you'd miss out on a transcendent season. 

 

My issue is that there is no such either/or scenario in fantasy football. You can draft TJ Hockenson and STILL maintain a belief that rookie pass catchers are generally a terrible investment. 

You are correct in this statement. I remember drafting Benjamin his rookie year and Ridley last year while being quite high on both guys. Avoiding ANY type of player all together is something I don't get behind. For instance, i'll never draft a half year wonder RB but at the same time if one seems extremely talented and drops I won't die by my rules. 

Point being, just because rookie pass catchers don't do well that doesn't mean Hockenson won't do well. There's always anomalies and good fantasy players can often spot these anomalies while the herd falls into the same pit over and over again. My problem is Hockenson is already an anomaly if he is a TE1 (only 8 rookies have finished top 12 since 2000). Top 5 would be one hell of an anomaly. Again, not saying he cannot do it as it has been done. I just think people are getting ahead of themselves after one game. Not unreasonable is it? 

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Seriously how many of these "other" pass receivers came in being able to both pass catch and run block the way Hockamania can?  How many of them can work out of the backfield as an H-Back whereby further creating mismatches?  How many of them had a head coach with a blueprint from having coached against the best TE in football in practice for 13 years?

Answer:  None

 

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Granted game 1 was against Arizona's depleted secondary.  I could see TJ being a TE1 easy in this offense.  Here's why. Stafford's been known to lock onto preferred targets -- Calvin Johnson & Golden Tate (Golladay only got consistent volume last year when all the other WR's were traded or injured).  TJ lined up in the slot a lot in game 1 (along with Amendola) -- 1) Stafford likes throwing to the slot, e.g. Golden Tate.  2) Stafford likes to throw it to big targets who can make plays over top (Calvin Johnson & Golladay).  3) QB and TE already have built chemistry and I read an article today that said he was one of Stafford's favorite targets and that made the writer feel high level production could be sustained.  I tried finding the article but its buried in my browsing history.  The 6"5" TJ Hoch in the slot and leaping to make plays -- glad to have swiped him off the waiver wire in both my leagues.    

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The “history says this will never happen” argument about him being a rookie TE cracks me up every time. People break the mold in different ways all the time. Suggesting that a huge beast of a player like this can’t have a good season because history is nonsense. I can see a top 5 season for him if he continues this another week or two. But top 5 as probably 3-5. TE seems slim this year.

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1 hour ago, rocket said:

Granted game 1 was against Arizona's depleted secondary.  I could see TJ being a TE1 easy in this offense.  Here's why. Stafford's been known to lock onto preferred targets -- Calvin Johnson & Golden Tate (Golladay only got consistent volume last year when all the other WR's were traded or injured).  TJ lined up in the slot a lot in game 1 (along with Amendola) -- 1) Stafford likes throwing to the slot, e.g. Golden Tate.  2) Stafford likes to throw it to big targets who can make plays over top (Calvin Johnson & Golladay).  3) QB and TE already have built chemistry and I read an article today that said he was one of Stafford's favorite targets and that made the writer feel high level production could be sustained.  I tried finding the article but its buried in my browsing history.  The 6"5" TJ Hoch in the slot and leaping to make plays -- glad to have swiped him off the waiver wire in both my leagues.    

“ Browsing history”eh?😂

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