Michael Gallup 2019 Outlook

[Zekepeak86 1,582]

3 minutes ago, K197040 said:

According to football guys stats, they've only given up 1 TD to a WR all season.  Goden Tate.  

And have they really not given up a TD to an RB all year?  That's nuts.

Yes, thats why i slipped crowder in lol. I know the pats faced a lot of bums early in year, but that D is good regardless. They are well organized and their schemes are top notch. I hate the pats but that D is fun to watch. I mean Jackson did the best and threw for 163 yards and 1 td lol...he ran for 61 and ran for 2 more. Lamar bought himself more time than dak will. Ive just convinced myself to go crowder right here and now lol

Edited November 21, 2019 by Zekepeak86

[K197040 2,412]

2 minutes ago, Zekepeak86 said:

Yes, thats why i slipped crowder in lol. I know the pats faced a lot of bums early in year, but that D is good regardless. They are well organized and their schemes are top notch. I hate the pats but that D is fun to watch. I mean Jackson did the best and threw for 163 yards and 1 td lol...he ran for 61 and ran for 2 more. Lamar bought himself more time than dak will. Ive just convinced myself to go crowder right here and now lol

Yeah...I wasn't expecting a lot out of Gallup but I was thinking he'd be a decent flex.  I'm reconsidering it at this point.

[Zekepeak86 1,582]

4 minutes ago, K197040 said:

Yeah...I wasn't expecting a lot out of Gallup but I was thinking he'd be a decent flex.  I'm reconsidering it at this point.

Gallup very well could go off, he is very talented, if he ends up with more points than crowder so be it. Id look for anyone with good qb rapport and good matchup with the same kind of targets per game. Guys like crowder should all have safer floors and higher ceilings but this is fantasy. Mccourty could have a bad day and get burned on 1 play where gallup has a line of 4/110/1. He could also see 3/38/0. You start your studs regardless of match ups, if gallup balls out this week, he wont see my bench ros most likely. But he isnt a must start stud.

Edited November 21, 2019 by Zekepeak86

[K197040 2,412]

11 minutes ago, Zekepeak86 said:

Gallup very well could go off, he is very talented, if he ends up with more points than crowder so be it. Id look for anyone with good qb rapport and good matchup with the same kind of targets per game. Guys like crowder should all have safer floors and higher ceilings but this is fantasy. Mccourty could have a bad day and get burned on 1 play where gallup has a line of 4/110/1. He could also see 3/38/0. You start your studs regardless of match ups, if gallup balls out this week, he wont see my bench ros most likely. But he isnt a must start stud.

The closest comp I could find vs the Pats was Landry/OBJ.  Not exactly the same thing (especially with Cobb also in the mix) but both put up double digits in PPR.   .  But I may have to pivot to Latavius or Montgomery in my flex.  I'm just looking for the safest way to get 10 points. 

Edited November 21, 2019 by K197040

[BGDDYKWL 1,130]

You assume the Pats will focus on Cooper. You also figure the Pats will be winning, forcing Dallas to keep throwing. I think he's been too good to sit. 

[BGDDYKWL 1,130]

MJD, who is generally not the greatest when it comes to fantasy, said the Pats would double Cooper and put Gilmore on Gallup. That's closer to a real football observation than fantasy speculation, so I place far more weight on that take. Cause for concern? 

[Mr.Joshua 147]

Could he break off that one big play to save his/your fantasy day? Anything is possible but i believe unlikely. I'm rolling with Westbrook over him in a full ppr.

[Zekepeak86 1,582]

9 hours ago, BGDDYKWL said:

MJD, who is generally not the greatest when it comes to fantasy, said the Pats would double Cooper and put Gilmore on Gallup. That's closer to a real football observation than fantasy speculation, so I place far more weight on that take. Cause for concern? 

Yea, Gilmore can do it all. Gallup is talented enough I’m just staying away since I have crowder at home against Oakland. Those stars have a better chance to align in my opinion. Gallup away in rain against one of the best corners? 

[BGDDYKWL 1,130]

8 minutes ago, Zekepeak86 said:

Yea, Gilmore can do it all. Gallup is talented enough I’m just staying away since I have crowder at home against Oakland. Those stars have a better chance to align in my opinion. Gallup away in rain against one of the best corners? 

I hear ya. It's definitely cause for concern if Gilmore is in fact on him but I saw an article where they were talking to Gilmore about Cooper so I wasn't sure if MJD was correct. 

[DConny1 125]

44 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

I hear ya. It's definitely cause for concern if Gilmore is in fact on him but I saw an article where they were talking to Gilmore about Cooper so I wasn't sure if MJD was correct. 

Gilmore wouldn't tip his hand on who they are matching up against anyways. But if BB follows what he usually does against two talented receivers, he'll play Gilmore on the slower one, and double the faster one with Jonathan Jones (their most athletic corner).

[handyandy86 2,451]

On 11/21/2019 at 12:24 PM, K197040 said:

The closest comp I could find vs the Pats was Landry/OBJ.  Not exactly the same thing (especially with Cobb also in the mix) but both put up double digits in PPR.   .  But I may have to pivot to Latavius or Montgomery in my flex.  I'm just looking for the safest way to get 10 points. 

 

That's the thing that kind of gets me - lots of scary fantasy stats for the Pats D, and they are very talented and well-coached, but you also have to put it in context.

Week 1 they played the Steelers and really shut down Connor and the run game.  Ben had to attempt 47 passes to get to 276 yards, but JuJu ended up with a 6-78 line and James Washington went 2-51. 

Week 2 was the Dolphins and the craptastic combo of Rosen and Fitz throwing 4 INT's. 

Week 3 was the Jets with Luke damn Falk at QB. 

Week 4 they did rattle Josh Allen for 3 quarters until they injured him, but again due to garbage time their top 2 WR's had OK games, with John Brown going 5-69 and Beasley going 7-75. 

Week 5 was the Redskins starting Colt McCoy.  Enough said. 

Week 6 they picked on rookie Danny Dimes, but Tate was still able to go 6-102-1. 

Week 7 was the Jets again and Darnold coming back off mono looking like a deer in the headlights and throwing 4 INT's. 

Week 8 was the Browns with Landry going 5-65 and OBJ 5-52. 

Week 9 they got plowed by the Ravens, albeit mostly on the ground, but that is the Ravens' MO every week. 

Week 10 was their bye. 

Week 11 was Philly without Jeffery.  Ertz went 9-94 and Goedert went 3-36-1, so this game goes down as another "WR shutdown" game, even though the Eagles' top healthy receiving options were both TE's.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

If you sift through all the garbage and pick out the games they played against legitimate offenses, the numbers don't look quite so daunting:

JuJu 6-78 = 13.8 PPR points, James Washington 2-51 = 7.1 PPR points

John Brown 5-69 = 11.9 PPR points, Beasley = 14.5 PPR points

Tate 6-102-1 = 23.2 PPR points

Landry 5-65 = 11.5 PPR points, OBJ 5-52 = 10.2 PPR points

Marquise Brown 3-48 = 7.8 PPR points

Zach Ertz 9-94 = 18.4 PPR points, Goedert 3-36-1 = 12.6 PPR points

 

The Pats are for sure a tough matchup, no questioning that.  But a big part of their stats against WR's has been fueled by playing half their games against terrible QB's, and also playing teams that don't emphasize their WR's (Ravens running game, Eagles TE's).  

Looking at the numbers, I think 7-12 PPR points should be a pretty safe bet for Gallup.  It's modest, but there is always the chance at a TD or a big play, so there is some ceiling there (assuming it's not a likely ceiling to hit though).  Aside from the Ravens, who dropped 37 on the Pats a couple weeks ago, the Cowboys are the best offense they've played this season.  Cowboys have multiple weapons with Elliot at RB, Cooper and Gallup on the outside, Cobb actually showing out half decent in the slot the last few weeks . . . the Pats D will have their hands full.  They might be able to target one or two of those weapons and pay special attention to shutting them down, but that becomes harder to sell out to stop one facet when there are so many others that can beat you.  And out of that list, I can't really see Gallup being the player they sell out to stop.  

[K197040 2,412]

Nice work above.  The other thing that could be said is that Gallup really hasn’t faced anyone-either.  This will be the first time he’s getting a top 10 corner on him.   

[ST. STEVEN 4,170]

Very nice little match-up on Sun. Cooper likely getting the White treatment all game.

[JCDaly 307]

34 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Very nice little match-up on Sun. Cooper likely getting the White treatment all game.

Is he the only person of great concern in the Bills secondary? 

[ST. STEVEN 4,170]

6 minutes ago, JCDaly said:

Is he the only person of great concern in the Bills secondary? 

They are pretty damn good all the way around, but there are holes. They basically erase the TE and whomever White covers.

I noticed one encouraging piece of info from Derek Brown of The Quant Edge on Twitter:

"This week is a plum spot for Gallup to blast off matching up against Levi Wallace. Gallup has seen 23.5% of his his target volume on the go route. Wallace has been a free pass on these routes the last 2 years, allowing 45% to be converted. Wallace has allowed 69.1% catch rate, 4 TDs and a 112.9 passer rating in coverage so far this season."

[JCDaly 307]

Thanks, I appreciate the breakdown, hopefully Cooper is active so he can draw White!

[Zekepeak86 1,582]

7 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

They are pretty damn good all the way around, but there are holes. They basically erase the TE and whomever White covers.

I noticed one encouraging piece of info from Derek Brown of The Quant Edge on Twitter:

"This week is a plum spot for Gallup to blast off matching up against Levi Wallace. Gallup has seen 23.5% of his his target volume on the go route. Wallace has been a free pass on these routes the last 2 years, allowing 45% to be converted. Wallace has allowed 69.1% catch rate, 4 TDs and a 112.9 passer rating in coverage so far this season."

Which means Gallup has a 4/60/0 game. 

[oscar44 14]

Hate to sit him this week but I don't see him getting a lot of volume. The Bills can be ran on and with Zeke and that offensive line, I can't imagine Dallas will throw much when they can play ball control. Garrett is coaching for his job and the Cowboys need a win desperately.

Edited November 28, 2019 by oscar44

[Tomei7 591]

On 11/27/2019 at 10:57 AM, ST. STEVEN said:

Very nice little match-up on Sun. Cooper likely getting the White treatment all game.

So you think Gallup will do well?

[tekashi26ix 100]

another bad match up coming up with Chicago, on TNF no less in rd one... I'm rolling him out as my flex over guys like chris kirk and montgomery, anybody with me? 

[ST. STEVEN 4,170]

It is not a bad match-up at all imo. Number 1 WRs tend to rock the Bears more than the #2 guys, but it really isn't foreboding for Gallup anyways. 

[Tomei7 591]

Anyone giving him a shot tomorrow vs Bears?

[kidsgotsoul 343]

52 minutes ago, Tomei7 said:

Anyone giving him a shot tomorrow vs Bears?

I think Hicks is back. Run game for DAL is going to moving so maybe they end up more pass heavy. In any event yes I am in one league. Funny enough it’s the same league I started him last year in week 14 and he dropped a donut on me. Redemption!

[Tomei7 591]

12 minutes ago, kidsgotsoul said:

I think Hicks is back. Run game for DAL is going to moving so maybe they end up more pass heavy. In any event yes I am in one league. Funny enough it’s the same league I started him last year in week 14 and he dropped a donut on me. Redemption!

I think Prince Amukamara is doubtful also

[ST. STEVEN 4,170]

5 minutes ago, Tomei7 said:

I think Prince Amukamara is doubtful also

He is, solid cover guy too. Forecast is for almost no wind and mild temps. Dallas should take some shots to Gallup, was very effective earlier in year. Need to dial it up.