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Ranking the 3rd round RB's


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.5 ppr snake draft I pick 8th.  My big league entry fee is 5 figures 

I feel the value in the 2nd round is at WR   Evans, ODB, JuJu, Hill can all finish top 3.

Plan on going Rb in the 3rd and I'm having trouble ranking the options except for Aaron Jones who I give a 2nd round grade to.

How would you rank Henry, Freeman, keryon Johnson, and Mack?  Please give a quick reason behind your ranking.

Edited by jbarretta
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Let me start by saying I think Aaron Jones is being overrated.  Yes he has upside, but he has also yet to play through an entire season.  I think he has better than 50% to get injured in 2019.   Especially if his workload increases.  Honestly I think he is at his best around the 15 touch mark per game.

There are injury concerns with some other guys on the list.  I think I would make this decision based on what kind of risk you want to take.  In the last 7 years, only 11.9% of season RB1s came from a bottom 10 offense.  What teams are highly likely to be there this year? (Titans, Lions COUGH COUGH)https://www.fantasypros.com/2019/07/how-much-does-team-scoring-matter-for-fantasy-football-2019/

Now, there are some offenses projected to be top 10.  Packers, Falcons and Colts among them.  Which is unfortunate because all 3 of these have lead RBs with injury concerns.  But I like Freeman the best out of them in terms of risk management.  Most will likely agree with you that Jones is the best.  I know Freeman is older, but he has also been the RB1 overall before.  And we know his head is on straight.  Just my opinion. 

 

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19 minutes ago, Dark One said:

I agree that this thread is posted in the wrong place, but all you posted to was a link to the bench coach forum in general.

 

It was a joke. There is obviously no thread with that super specific title. 

Edited by P@ckersFan
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1 minute ago, Dark One said:

Darn, was definitely interested in the topic.

 

Sorry I was just fooling around. I didn't intend to get anyone's hopes up. I was just pointing out that like you said the answers to this kind of question can be found on the other board. 

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1 hour ago, jbarretta said:

.5 ppr snake draft I pick 8th.  My big league entry fee is 5 figures 

I feel the value in the 2nd round is at WR   Evans, ODB, JuJu, Hill can all finish top 3.

Plan on going Rb in the 3rd and I'm having trouble ranking the options except for Aaron Jones who I give a 2nd round grade to.

How would you rank Henry, Freeman, keryon Johnson, and Mack?  Please give a quick reason behind your ranking.

 

1. Mack - great offense, plenty of plays to capitalize.

2. Freeman - pedigree of a top 5 RB when healthy

3. K. Johnson - complete RB but team won't over use him. Injury concern.

4. D. Henry - mostly just a plodder on a bad offense and he was terrible weeks 1-12 last year.

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2 hours ago, jbarretta said:

.5 ppr snake draft I pick 8th.  My big league entry fee is 5 figures 

I feel the value in the 2nd round is at WR   Evans, ODB, JuJu, Hill can all finish top 3.

Plan on going Rb in the 3rd and I'm having trouble ranking the options except for Aaron Jones who I give a 2nd round grade to.

How would you rank Henry, Freeman, keryon Johnson, and Mack?  Please give a quick reason behind your ranking.

 

here's a take just to broaden perspective, because although i can see how you feel the value in the 2nd, i'm not seeing it it happen in real fantasy:

picking 8th this year may surprise you, and now that tyreek is back in the mix slide some solid RBs down one notch (e.g. chubb, mixon, conner), and watch as melvin gordon moves from 1.05 towards 1.12 with his contract news... assuming that david johnson is gone by the 8th, you're most likely picking one of the top WRs: adams, nuk, julio. if you reach for kelce / leveon bell at 1.08, it's an ill-advised pick... even mixon or conner seems a reach here.

so if you have adams for example at 1.08, there are these wildcards throwing the beginning of the second round off as they bounce around: gurley, cook, lev bell, antonio brown, damien williams, and even james conner. i've seen all of these guys go as early as 2.01 and with the exception of conner as late as 2.12 (with brown and gurley slipping to round 3 on occasion). i'd suggest chubb is a good pick at 2.04, though conner or mixon if either is somehow still there, this assuming you went WR at 1.08.

that said, if you go WR/WR you may land julio at 1.08, but OBJ rarely slips to the 2.04 (and michael thomas never does) and taking mike evans there is an absolute reach...

(actually, kelce's now going at 2.04 in half-PPR :)

so the 3.08 is iffy if you're looking to land aaron jones, marlon mack, freeman, derrick henry, or kerryon at 3.08. all of these RBs have an ADP earlier than 3.08 in half-PPR except kerryon, so really the choice is being made for you, right?

i'd go josh jacobs instead. not a gruden fan, but i see jacobs with more touches than kerryon (though kerryon is more talented). and chris carson at 4.04 is a solid option if you went WR/WR in 1 and 2.

if five figures are on the line, one word comes to mind: mock

giphy.gif

 

 

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40 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

here's a take just to broaden perspective, because although i can see how you feel the value in the 2nd, i'm not seeing it it happen in real fantasy:

picking 8th this year may surprise you, and now that tyreek is back in the mix slide some solid RBs down one notch (e.g. chubb, mixon, conner), and watch as melvin gordon moves from 1.05 towards 1.12 with his contract news... assuming that david johnson is gone by the 8th, you're most likely picking one of the top WRs: adams, nuk, julio. if you reach for kelce / leveon bell at 1.08, it's an ill-advised pick... even mixon or conner seems a reach here.

so if you have adams for example at 1.08, there are these wildcards throwing the beginning of the second round off as they bounce around: gurley, cook, lev bell, antonio brown, damien williams, and even james conner. i've seen all of these guys go as early as 2.01 and with the exception of conner as late as 2.12 (with brown and gurley slipping to round 3 on occasion). i'd suggest chubb is a good pick at 2.04, though conner or mixon if either is somehow still there, this assuming you went WR at 1.08.

that said, if you go WR/WR you may land julio at 1.08, but OBJ rarely slips to the 2.04 (and michael thomas never does) and taking mike evans there is an absolute reach...

(actually, kelce's now going at 2.04 in half-PPR :)

so the 3.08 is iffy if you're looking to land aaron jones, marlon mack, freeman, derrick henry, or kerryon at 3.08. all of these RBs have an ADP earlier than 3.08 in half-PPR except kerryon, so really the choice is being made for you, right?

i'd go josh jacobs instead. not a gruden fan, but i see jacobs with more touches than kerryon (though kerryon is more talented). and chris carson at 4.04 is a solid option if you went WR/WR in 1 and 2.

if five figures are on the line, one word comes to mind: mock

giphy.gif

 

 

 

Some great points.  I am leaning kelce in the 1st.  I feel 95 1200 10 from the tight end is more valuable than anything in fantasy except the top 4 rb

 

Also don't think Mike Evan's is a reach if he's the last remaining WR in that tier.   1500 yards last year and 179 targets left the team and the new oc,etc  imo he has a good a chance of being a top 3 Wr as anyone.  

You may be right about Jacob's.  Gonna be keeping a close eye on him

Been mocking and I feel going 

1-kelce

2- evans/odb 

3-rb (Aaron jones/Jacobs/mack/k Johnson)

4- Wr  (r woods /Ken goladay)

5- Qb (luck/watson/ben/Aaron)

I feel this is a great team.  Would be weak at rb but loading up in later rounds I usually hit.  

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2 minutes ago, jbarretta said:

 

Some great points.  I am leaning kelce in the 1st.  I feel 95 1200 10 from the tight end is more valuable than anything in fantasy except the top 4 rb

 

Also don't think Mike Evan's is a reach if he's the last remaining WR in that tier.   1500 yards last year and 179 targets left the team and the new oc,etc  imo he has a good a chance of being a top 3 Wr as anyone.  

You may be right about Jacob's.  Gonna be keeping a close eye on him

Been mocking and I feel going 

1-kelce

2- evans/odb 

3-rb (Aaron jones/Jacobs/mack/k Johnson)

4- Wr  (r woods /Ken goladay)

5- Qb (luck/watson/ben/Aaron)

I feel this is a great team.  Would be weak at rb but loading up in later rounds I usually hit.  

Do you only start 1 at every position? If not you’ll be screwed at RB

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5 minutes ago, jbarretta said:

 

Some great points.  I am leaning kelce in the 1st.  I feel 95 1200 10 from the tight end is more valuable than anything in fantasy except the top 4 rb

 

Also don't think Mike Evan's is a reach if he's the last remaining WR in that tier.   1500 yards last year and 179 targets left the team and the new oc,etc  imo he has a good a chance of being a top 3 Wr as anyone.  

You may be right about Jacob's.  Gonna be keeping a close eye on him

Been mocking and I feel going 

1-kelce

2- evans/odb 

3-rb (Aaron jones/Jacobs/mack/k Johnson)

4- Wr  (r woods /Ken goladay)

5- Qb (luck/watson/ben/Aaron)

I feel this is a great team.  Would be weak at rb but loading up in later rounds I usually hit.  

 

Kelce has only hit 10 TDs once. That is his ceiling.

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8 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Do you only start 1 at every position? If not you’ll be screwed at RB

 

Start 2rb 3 Wr

In that draft strategy I proposed I would stack up on mark Ingram, Tariq Cohen, mckinon types for my rb2

If you are stacked at qb/tight end and Wr with 1 potential rb1  I feel you can punt rb2 and wr3

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1 hour ago, jbarretta said:

 

Start 2rb 3 Wr

In that draft strategy I proposed I would stack up on mark Ingram, Tariq Cohen, mckinon types for my rb2

If you are stacked at qb/tight end and Wr with 1 potential rb1  I feel you can punt rb2 and wr3

 

entirely feasible melvin gordon's impending holdout pushes his ADP, and gurley's is already depressed, so at 1.08 and 2.04 you could start your draft with gordon and gurley.

then just click on auto-draft and pray to your respective fantasy god that you see 16-game seasons from both.

 

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6 hours ago, jbarretta said:

.5 ppr snake draft I pick 8th.  My big league entry fee is 5 figures 

I feel the value in the 2nd round is at WR   Evans, ODB, JuJu, Hill can all finish top 3.

Plan on going Rb in the 3rd and I'm having trouble ranking the options except for Aaron Jones who I give a 2nd round grade to.

How would you rank Henry, Freeman, keryon Johnson, and Mack?  Please give a quick reason behind your ranking.

Image result for money snow angel gif

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For redraft, I assume.

Jones - Agree with OP, probably the best player of the group, and has the most upside in a potentially great offense. 

Freeman - High risk, but all these guys are high risk. He's the only one proven to be an elite RB1 when healthy. 

Mack - Really close between Mack and Kerryon. Mack gets the edge due to playing with Luck and slightly less injury concerns. 

Kerryon - Plenty of upside, but I'm not sure  how this offense is going to look. They added CJ Anderson, drafted a RB, and still have Riddick, for now. 

Henry - Maybe he moves up in standard, but he doesn't catch enough balls for me to draft him this high in PPR. He also has Lewis there still and the team might suck. 

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2 hours ago, Maroney's Bolgna said:

 

Lol OK... targets / yards / TDs all trending upwards if you map his relatively young career... on an ascendant offense, so... No, hardly his absolute ceiling.

 

An offense that will almost certainly regress from last year. Kelce is like 30 years old. If you wanna pencil him in for 10, go for it. I think a more realistic projection is 7-8

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