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How Much Does the Melvin Holdout Scare You? (WHIR)


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Hey guys, just have a trade question, but realistically it comes down to the M. Gordon holdout for me. How worried should I be about it? Is he likely to miss regular season games? Is it just a guessing game at this point? I was offered a trade for him:

 

Give: M. Gordon, Kyler

Get: Bell

 

Now with no holdout, I'm declining this without second though. I'm not a huge Bell fan and would prefer M. Gordon. Not to mention Kyler could very well be my starting QB at some point this year over Brady. But.. The holdout. The Bell situation last year scares me.

 

10 team 0.5 PPR redraft:

QB Brady

WR Julio, Allen

RB M. Gordon, Henry

TE Njoku

FLEX A. Jones

BE Edelman, Watkins, Guice, Tate, Kyler, Coutee, Ekeler, Hunt

 

So what do you think? Hold Gordon? Take the safer bet in Bell? Thanks for any responses. Leave any links down below.

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50 minutes ago, DonaldsDucks said:

Is it just a guessing game at this point?

Yes.

I prefer to think in scenarios, and then attach a weight to the scenarios. Eg (warning, nerd alert):

- scenario 1: They reach an agreement before the season (any agreement): 50%
- scenario 2: they reach an agreement somewhere into the season and Gordon misses some games, let's say on average 4 games: 30%
- scenario 3: no agreement, Gordon misses the season. 20%

(Obviously my percentages above are fictional and you will have to do your own assessment). Now each scenario has a value:

Now you count the totals. In 2018 Gordon was RB6-7 playing only 12 games, with 20.9 ppg in ,5 PPR (so far he played 14 games on average per season). If I calculate all of that, I project him around 200 points for the season, meaning around RB12, or say end of round 2.

I decreased the font size a bit so if you're not interested it's easier to gloss over it ;). In any case, I would fade Gordon substantially because of this news, and Gordon + Kyler vs Bell sounds like a good deal to me.

However, you didn't mention whether this is Dynasty, or just a very early draft? If dynasty I rate Kyler a bit higher, as you will have some time to let him grow, and that makes the deal less attractive. It also makes me fade Gordon less, so that changes the whole deal.

Edited by Boudewijn
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27 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Yes.

I prefer to think in scenarios, and then attach a weight to the scenarios. Eg (warning, nerd alert):

- scenario 1: They reach an agreement before the season (any agreement): 50%
- scenario 2: they reach an agreement somewhere into the season and Gordon misses some games, let's say on average 4 games: 30%
- scenario 3: no agreement, Gordon misses the season. 20%

(Obviously my percentages above are fictional and you will have to do your own assessment). Now each scenario has a value:

Now you count the totals. In 2018 Gordon was RB6-7 playing only 12 games, with 20.9 ppg in ,5 PPR (so far he played 14 games on average per season). If I calculate all of that, I project him around 200 points for the season, meaning around RB12, or say end of round 2.

I decreased the font size a bit so if you're not interested it's easier to gloss over it ;). In any case, I would fade Gordon substantially because of this news, and Gordon + Kyler vs Bell sounds like a good deal to me.

However, you didn't mention whether this is Dynasty, or just a very early draft? If dynasty I rate Kyler a bit higher, as you will have some time to let him grow, and that makes the deal less attractive. It also makes me fade Gordon less, so that changes the whole deal.

 

Thanks! Definitely helpful. And just above my team I threw in that it's a (early) redraft so everything you mentioned applies. Thanks again! 

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I’d do it. Obviously nobody knows exactly how things will play out but the Chargers do not appear ready to budge. Bell is barely a downgrade and I have close to zero interest in Murray for redraft leagues. Ultimately this comes down to risk aversion and all you essentially have to do is swap mid-first round picks. 

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Would do the trade & not risk sticking with him, in case he does actually hold out for a period of time. But if you can, draft a LAC back up, so if he does holdout, you have a solid RB or at the very least, a good trade chip with the guy who gets MG.😎

 

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6 minutes ago, DarinB300 said:

Would do the trade & not risk sticking with him, in case he does actually hold out for a period of time. But if you can, draft a LAC back up, so if he does holdout, you have a solid RB or at the very least, a good trade chip with the guy who gets MG.😎

 

 

Thanks! I do actually have Ekeler already. And Jackson is a FA currently so can grab him if I need to. Looks like I may have to make this deal

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5 minutes ago, DonaldsDucks said:

 

Thanks! I do actually have Ekeler already. And Jackson is a FA currently so can grab him if I need to. Looks like I may have to make this deal

You know Bell is gonna get a good amount of carries/catches, even being with  the NYJ, so he should produce for you. Good luck man!

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1 hour ago, PackerBacker555 said:

I would trade him too

plus, you have Keenan already at WR so you are currently invested quite a bit in the Chargers offense. Couple poo poo games from the team and you probably lose. However, I’m not a fan of having multiple players from same team. 

 

Team looks solid

 

Thank you! I actually just dealt Njoku/Watkins in a seperate deal for Engram and will pickup Samuel. So I think I'm looking a lot better. And you are right about the multiple players on the same team thing. I didn't plan it that way but I just thought Allen in the 4th was solid value.

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