Caris LeVert 2019-2020 Outlook

[Dirtbag 12]

Will LeVert be able to put up similar numbers as the start of last season (before injury) with Irving in town?

[johnval1362 194]

I'll be looking to grab him in the 9th or 10th. Kyrie will absorb all of Russels minutes/usage and then some, but with Russel also leaving, I think he ends up like 75% of last year. That's a tough one though.  

[apatas 437]

LeVert was taken as a 62nd pick at RW experts mock draft and 75th at RW members recent mock (H2H 9 cat). I think he will be taken generally inside TOP80 in this season. But in what rank he finish, it is a big question mark. Maybe somebody can guess?

[Auction>Snake 412]

Monster. I think that injury delayed his true breakout. Get all the minutes he can handle at SG. Kyrie is semi-injury prone also, if he sits it'll be insane. And the cherry on top? Contract year, no way the Nets can afford to re-sign he'll recieve a huge contract from another team which makes LeVert absolute dynasty gold.

[Jake the snake 1,749]

4 hours ago, Auction>Snake said:

Monster. I think that injury delayed his true breakout. Get all the minutes he can handle at SG. Kyrie is semi-injury prone also, if he sits it'll be insane. And the cherry on top? Contract year, no way the Nets can afford to re-sign he'll recieve a huge contract from another team which makes LeVert absolute dynasty gold.

Yeah I think he's in for a big year again, but I wouldn't go too crazy on where you pick him (his game has a few flaws that limit fantasy upside a bit - mediocre efficiency, threes and steals). You could see in the playoffs he was their true best player. Levert stepped up and DAR fell off when it counted most (21ppg on 49/46/72% in the playoffs - small sample size, but playoffs are a great way to see potential; as a reference DAR was 19ppg on 36/32/85%). 

I don't think Kyrie Impacts him too much. I mean Russell was a ball-hog too and they need scoring outside of Irving and he is a much better player with a higher ceiling than Prince. Prediction:

18/4.5/4.5/1.2/0.4 with 2.0 TOs 1.5 threes and 44/34/72 (definite upside beyond that), should be nudging top 70 value if he can stay healthy. Oladipo-lite...

I agree though, I think he'll be on another team next year as he'll probably get max or near max offers that are too rich for the nets.

Edited July 31, 2019 by Jake the snake

[qpeeters 146]

Picking him 62nd seems high to me, I wouldn't risk it until the 8th or 9th round.
The highest he has ever ranked (excluding playoffs) in either per game, per 36 or totals is 159th (total value in 17-18).

Last year he ended up 178th in per game value, he has had some great performances but there hasn't been much consistency with plenty of absolutely terrible games still mixed in. I'd be happy to grab him if he falls in the draft but I'm not ready to gamble a top 70 pick based on only a 5 game playoff run performance and the eye-test.

[Jake the snake 1,749]

3 hours ago, qpeeters said:

Picking him 62nd seems high to me, I wouldn't risk it until the 8th or 9th round.
The highest he has ever ranked (excluding playoffs) in either per game, per 36 or totals is 159th (total value in 17-18).

Last year he ended up 178th in per game value, he has had some great performances but there hasn't been much consistency with plenty of absolutely terrible games still mixed in. I'd be happy to grab him if he falls in the draft but I'm not ready to gamble a top 70 pick 

 

I agree, I think he could find his way into the top 70 pretty easy, but I'm not picking him there as his floor is still pretty low. 8th or 9th round seem fair, an argument could be made for the 7th and that's about when I'd start to consider him. So overall pre-draft rank in the 75-100 range seems fair.

[Dirtbag 12]

I was able to get him in 3 of 4 leagues in the 8th round. I'm taking a chance on him again this year.

[crocp 658]

What are people thinking this years in regards to LeVert? Can he put up similar #'s to last year pre-injury?

[apacheblues 29]

The word is out and he's going a round or two earlier now. Generally expect him to get 16-4-4-1-1 (1x 3, 1x STL). Probably close to what a healthy Gordon Haywood will do with less 3s and FT%.

Edited September 24, 2019 by apacheblues

[hipriest69 840]

I think he's a great option especially for punt FT teams looking to makeup points and assists later in the draft....I just punted FT in a real draft and got him in the 7th round #83, then got Warren 3 rounds after that as another late round player who can boost points and efficiency.  

[chaiway 416]

I'm really curious if they'll also run plays where CLV is the ballhandler and Kyrie is off the ball. 

Without KD, he's the clear second option on the team behind Kyrie.

Either way I expect a strong season as well and the biggest potential improvement would be in his ability to hit the 3 consistently which will raise his 3s, pts and fg%.

 

[chaiway 416]

1 hour ago, a-rob said:

I think Levert will be making the All Star team this year if the Nets will win lots of games. Was a stud before going down with an injury, was a miracle he was able to return within the same season, and then was the best player for them during the playoffs.

 

For fantasy he will put up the counting stats, wouldn't be surprised to see him average close to 20, the determining cat for his ranking whether really high or just average will be ft% and 3pm

 

Strangely enough in college he shot FTs at 50%, 77%, 81%, 79%

 

Nba has been 72%, 71%, 69%

 

Not quite trending in the right direction but he does have those 3 seasons in college where he was around 80%

 

 

[Tekno Team 2000 1,619]

I love LeVert and want to be a driver of the bandwagon again this year because he really could be an all-star this year if he stays healthy.  I haven't decided yet (want to see preseason first), but its the FT% that at this time is holding me back from saying he is a must-draft.  Since he is no longer a sleeper, not sure yet it is worth it in terms of where I would need to draft him this time. 

The first month of last season he shot 81.8% (preseason he was 6-7).  A lot of FT shooting is mental, so hopefully its something he worked on this summer and gained some confidence in because if he can get it to upper 70's, he is 100% a must draft player where I would definitely reach to get him. 

[MilesBridgesBetterThanZion 288]

LeVert is too good to be the third guy behind KD & Kyrie, and he'll show that this season. 

[MilesBridgesBetterThanZion 288]

1 minute ago, a-rob said:

On most teams he should be an alpha or at least be a Robin, and he will be good kyrie side kick this year. But KD and Kyrie will dominate usage rate when KD returns. I still think he will be an All Star this year, maybe in years 2020 and beyond too if Nets can have good W-L record, but he will definitely be 3rd guy and take back seat to KD.

Absolutely it's pretty much a given. He's got the talent, if everything goes perfectly to turn into a star & possibly demand a trade. But the alternative is better, as KD slows down LeVert will be moving into his prime. Going to be very interesting. 

[Lifschitz 2,246]

I want to like him, but I'm really having a hard time with those percentages. I do see some samples in his month to month splits similar to Luka Doncic where there are months with very high FT% and FG%, so there is some light at the end of the tunnel, maybe he can average out higher in the middle.

[apatas 437]

16 hours ago, Tekno Team 2000 said:

He is 100% a must draft player where I would definitely reach to get him. 

Where you plan to reach him? I put LeVert in my prerank as 6th round player, but somebody said it is too high.

[apatas 437]

If he takes 4 free throws per game (last season average 3,1), it is about 9 of 13 per week, which doesn't affect too much.

[Lifschitz 2,246]

2 hours ago, apatas said:

Where you plan to reach him? I put LeVert in my prerank as 6th round player, but somebody said it is too high.

 

I can't justify the 6th round. You're passing up guys with better more consistent current value who also have decent ceilings. For example guys like Oubre, Miles Bridges, and Josh Richardson are available in the 6th. They have safe floors/upside, and you won't have to worry about possible percentage issues in both percentage cats. Having a guard with poor percentages is an issue because bigs won't save your FT, so if you're not tanking that category you also have to peg him down a little bit, especially if you don't have any strong FT catalysts in your guard spots who take high volume on high percentage. 

If you expect him to fully fix his FT problem then I'm all for it, I personally don't hold that belief.

Health issues are also a concern. One of the reasons Caris slipped in the draft is because he had red flags about his health. He's played 57, 71, and 40 games through 3 seasons. If you're someone who mitigates risk that should also peg him down.

I have him more in the 7th - 8th round range. I personally won't be drafting him, if he falls to me in the 9th or so great. Otherwise there are some more targets in those rounds with better percentages who don't have health concerns (I'd love to name them but I have guys from my league lurking here).

Prior to his injury we do have a few weeks where he was very impressive and was in the running for MIP, so if you think he can get back to a 17 / 4 / 3 / 1+ level, go for it. I see value in some safer options where I won't have to worry about percentages/health without having to draft him in the 6th ahead of better options.

For what it's worth in the mocks I've done (and there are guys aggressively targeting sleepers), he's always drafted around 8-9, I've even seen him fall to 10. Don't overpay. 

Edited September 26, 2019 by Lifschitz

[apatas 437]

I don't argue here, but it looks like Rotoworld experts are much higher on LeVert than people here in forum. Whom I have to believe? Look again today's column where Mike Gallagher says: I love Caris LeVert, of course. You see: of course!!

Edited September 26, 2019 by apatas

[chaiway 416]

12 hours ago, Lifschitz said:

 

I can't justify the 6th round. You're passing up guys with better more consistent current value who also have decent ceilings. For example guys like Oubre, Miles Bridges, and Josh Richardson are available in the 6th. They have safe floors/upside, and you won't have to worry about possible percentage issues in both percentage cats. Having a guard with poor percentages is an issue because bigs won't save your FT, so if you're not tanking that category you also have to peg him down a little bit, especially if you don't have any strong FT catalysts in your guard spots who take high volume on high percentage. 

...

Prior to his injury we do have a few weeks where he was very impressive and was in the running for MIP, so if you think he can get back to a 17 / 4 / 3 / 1+ level, go for it. I see value in some safer options where I won't have to worry about percentages/health without having to draft him in the 6th ahead of better options.

For what it's worth in the mocks I've done (and there are guys aggressively targeting sleepers), he's always drafted around 8-9, I've even seen him fall to 10. Don't overpay. 

 

1. Consistency - the other guys mentioned aren't exactly consistent - Miles Bridges (pretty big unkown after one season and remake of the team), Oubre (had an insane finish to last year with big uptick in Steals & Pts), Jrich (new situation)

2. What categories you are prioritizing - I expect CLV to lead the group mentioned in both Points and Assists. 

3. Health is a definite concern but his playoffs helped assuage fears of where he's at in his recovery from last year's injury. I do hope for improved %s and better 3 point shooting as mentioned previously

for what it's worth, I got him at 72 after Oubre was already selected but ahead of Jrich and Miles in an 8 cat roto draft

[Lifschitz 2,246]

3 hours ago, apatas said:

I don't argue here, but it looks like Rotoworld experts are much higher on LeVert than people here in forum. Whom I have to believe? Look again today's column where Mike Gallagher says: I love Caris LeVert, of course. You see: of course!!

 

Two years ago was the one and only time I bought their draft guide. They were off about so many sleepers it’s not even funny. They put several guys who were total reaches and advocated readers to draft them 4 5 rounds higher than their actual perceived value. They do this yearly and they even jokingly get called out for it around here. If you throw enough things at the wall eventually something sticks and you can hone in on that one thing through bias and tell people how right you were, while avoiding how you predicted several players who were just bad.

 

Aaron Gordon is one example, Jamal Murray, Josh Richardson, James Johnson, and there were many others. They unanimously told people to take Jamal Murray in the third round, he didn’t come close to that value. 

I’m not saying mike is wrong about Caris, but make your own conclusions and use them as soft guides who point you to something interesting. Look at age, read scouting reports, watch scouting videos (strengths/weaknesses) watch some highlights, look at the makeup of the team, track his usage rate, extrapolate based off the first three years. For example, how many players do you remember in recent memory that in their first three years averaged almost identical stats, but suddenly improved their FG and FT significantly?

His injury is really the most valid reason to expect him to average out somewhere inbetween unless he has one of those drastic breakout years (it’s entirely possible as he’s talented), but don’t make the mistake of overpaying for hype, there are always guys floating around there who have their own high ceilings but also a better floor. 

 

 

[MilesBridgesBetterThanZion 288]

The man was robbed of his third year leap, his breakout has simply been delayed. Kyrie's just as injury prone as LeVert if not more considering last season's was a complete accidental, freak injury. His playoffs performance was outstanding, a taste of what to expect. Drafting everywhere.

[Tekno Team 2000 1,619]

On 9/26/2019 at 2:49 AM, apatas said:

Where you plan to reach him? I put LeVert in my prerank as 6th round player, but somebody said it is too high.

 

If his preseason gives me some sort of sign his free throws are improved which will be hard given the limited sample, then 6th/7th round is where I would be comfortable reaching.

Percentages are the only thing holding him back at this point from being that top 50 player.