Lauri Markkanen 2019-2020 Outlook

[Gorgeous George 424]

Any thoughts?

I'm expecting a big season from him.  He put up top 40 production last season and I expect more the same.  Concern might be whether or not WJC returning will impact the uptick we saw in rebounds.  He seemed to develop and nice pick and pop type game with Lavine last season.  Sato should help with ball movement.

[hipriest69 840]

I suppose he's one of those players that you have to be ok with having below average FG, stl, and blk, and kind of hope at least 1 or more of those go up.  It's not that he doesn't contribute at all, just doesn't give you anything beyond the mean.  I suppose I would target Kristaps a tad earlier...similar low-ish FG, not much stls / assists...and Lauri could be a fall-back option knowing you would have to supplement stocks and FG at some point.  I suppose a punt assists team would be a nice fit as your 4th round pick since he shores up 3's and rebounds with above average scoring...Kristaps would also be an option there...

 

Say hypothetically something like this punt assist team

AD

Butler 

Turner

Lauri

 

[StifleTower2 2,525]

Punt FG% seems most likely as he’s 27th in that build and punt FG/To is the most common punt build.  He can easily hit 20/10 with 2.5 threes.  If you can get Harden, Steph, or Dame first round then a lot of littles go up in value when you put the punt FG filter on.  Lauri is an easy third round pick in that build with someone like brook or gasol in the fourth.  Just have to hope he doesn’t get injured or shutdown.

[RedRaider27 534]

13 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

Punt FG% seems most likely as he’s 27th in that build and punt FG/To is the most common punt build.  He can easily hit 20/10 with 2.5 threes.  If you can get Harden, Steph, or Dame first round then a lot of littles go up in value when you put the punt FG filter on.  Lauri is an easy third round pick in that build with someone like brook or gasol in the fourth.  Just have to hope he doesn’t get injured or shutdown.

Don't see him grabbing 10 boards. He's a 4, not a 5, and WCJ figures to grab most of the rebounds. Lauri had an uptick in that cat with Wendell gone, I see him going back down to 7 or 8 per game.

[StifleTower2 2,525]

1 minute ago, RedRaider27 said:

Don't see him grabbing 10 boards. He's a 4, not a 5, and WCJ figures to grab most of the rebounds. Lauri had an uptick in that cat with Wendell gone, I see him going back down to 7 or 8 per game.

Yeah, you're probably right.

[Gorgeous George 424]

What do you expect from him this year?  every ranking has him ahead of players like Tatum, who I think will have a break out year.  With WCJ back in the picture, will Lauri's blocks, and rebounds drop?  With Dunn replaced with Sato, will Lauri's scoring soar?  

[Gile Pile 1,206]

I am hoping for better health. As for numbers,  there are few factors to consider:   better PG,  more stable situation, WCJ is back (I think that is positive), ready for that 3rd year jump.

I think his numbers will slightly improve across  the board. 

[Quazza 2,353]

dude is yolked

[RedRaider27 534]

16 hours ago, Quazza said:

dude is yolked

Him and Porzingis are competing for World's Strongest Man: NBA Edition. Too bad it probably does nothing for their fantasy outlook.

[StifleTower2 2,525]

On 8/25/2019 at 12:03 PM, Gorgeous George said:

What do you expect from him this year?  every ranking has him ahead of players like Tatum, who I think will have a break out year.  With WCJ back in the picture, will Lauri's blocks, and rebounds drop?  With Dunn replaced with Sato, will Lauri's scoring soar?  

They have him ahead of Tatum because Lauri draws comparison to early Kevin Love.  He can be 18/8 with close to three 3s easily with excellent FT%.  Downside being low stocks and FG%.  There’s no doubt he has top 50 potential.  Health concerns, poor playoff schedule, and rest days down the stretch are much bigger concerns.  I think Tatum is a better irl player but Lauri is a better fantasy player per game.  But it depends on whether you trust him to play during the fantasy playoffs, when Tatums over/under has to be around 9.5 for those three weeks, while his is maybe 7.5??  How much does two extra games matter to you, assuming it’s H2H?

[Gile Pile 1,206]

59 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

They have him ahead of Tatum because Lauri draws comparison to early Kevin Love.  He can be 18/8 with close to three 3s easily with excellent FT%.  Downside being low stocks and FG%.  There’s no doubt he has top 50 potential.  Health concerns, poor playoff schedule, and rest days down the stretch are much bigger concerns.  I think Tatum is a better irl player but Lauri is a better fantasy player per game.  But it depends on whether you trust him to play during the fantasy playoffs, when Tatums over/under has to be around 9.5 for those three weeks, while his is maybe 7.5??  How much does two extra games matter to you, assuming it’s H2H?

depends on the rest of  your team.  I would take Lauri (1st or 2nd  offensive option, top heavy team) over Tatum (2nd or 3rd offensive option, deep team ). 

[freddo 378]

4 hours ago, RedRaider27 said:

Him and Porzingis are competing for World's Strongest Man: NBA Edition. Too bad it probably does nothing for their fantasy outlook.

I don't know man, shows they are putting in work and trying to improve. The opposite was true of John Wall last year.

[Mikhov 574]

Disagree that getting jacked means nothing to player outlook, he can def absorb more contact and assuming his core / lower body was also a priority, Lauri should be more durable.

This also coincides with him stating that his offseason goals were to improve defensively, attack the rim and post up more - an increase in fg is definitely on the table and hopefully defensive stats.

[Tekno Team 2000 1,623]

I have never seen the appeal with this guy.  Low FG% for a big, minimal stocks, no assists, and not a stud rebounder.  Yes he scores and shoots threes, but in this era, a lot of bigs shoot threes now and threes in general are not hard to come by.

Unless the added strength and another offseason to work on his game equates to a higher percentage and stocks (wasn't a stocks guy in college so I doubt it), for where he is being drafted, he is a pass for me.

[Gorgeous George 424]

My mind is blown everytime i see a posters talk with absolute certainty that kids in their second or third year can't improve.  These guys are 21 and 22 years old in most cases and are not a final product.  

/rant.

[StifleTower2 2,525]

48 minutes ago, Gorgeous George said:

My mind is blown everytime i see a posters talk with absolute certainty that kids in their second or third year can't improve.  These guys are 21 and 22 years old in most cases and are not a final product.  

/rant.

On the contrary, I think it's interesting when people assume with 100% certainty that their guys will take a big leap.  They forget that regression also occurs.  We don't really know which way it will go...which is why I'm not enamored with players under the age of 25 like some people are.  I prefer proven veterans ages 28-32 because they've proven their value and yet it's also before their decline.  I'm not referencing you or anyone else specifically, just a rebuttal to your comment.  

[Tekno Team 2000 1,623]

2 hours ago, Gorgeous George said:

My mind is blown everytime i see a posters talk with absolute certainty that kids in their second or third year can't improve.  These guys are 21 and 22 years old in most cases and are not a final product.  

/rant.

 

Was this regarding my previous post? I said that with absolute certainty? Really?  That is an exaggeration.

The furthest I went was I doubted an improvement in stocks, based on stocks in college being a good indicator of players' stocks in the pros. 0.4 steals and 0.5 blocks in college.

But I didn't guarantee anything tho.  So how does doubting something equate to absolute certainty?

Not all of us can be high on him....

[RedRaider27 534]

6 hours ago, Tekno Team 2000 said:

I have never seen the appeal with this guy.  Low FG% for a big, minimal stocks, no assists, and not a stud rebounder.  Yes he scores and shoots threes, but in this era, a lot of bigs shoot threes now and threes in general are not hard to come by.

Unless the added strength and another offseason to work on his game equates to a higher percentage and stocks (wasn't a stocks guy in college so I doubt it), for where he is being drafted, he is a pass for me.

Agreed. Never been a huge fan, I think he is overrated at well. He is what he is, but is just too expensive for me.

[bkw77 181]

Intresting thread - a few comments I'll add:

- assessing his value is completely dependent on your team build - as an example I have a punt assists team (built around KAT, Turner, Siakam, JJJ, Harris, Markannen) so he is very valuable in that context.

- I like the comparison to a young Kevin Love (actually made that same comp the other day) that's pretty much his long term upside IMO, top 20 with elite out of position threes and FT%, and 20/10. 

- As a third year guy I'm expecting a steady leap this year and top 35-40 finish overall in 9-CAT (I'm probably a little higher on him than others)

- playoff schedule depends on your league settings - in my leagues were running with earliest setting available (playoffs finishing 22nd March) and in that case the Bulls go 4-4-3 which is better than most teams 

Edited August 27, 2019 by bkw77

[StifleTower2 2,525]

2 minutes ago, bkw77 said:

Intresting thread - a few comments I'll add:

- assessing his value is completely dependent on your team build - as an example I have a punt assists team (built around KAT, Turner, Siakam, JJJ, Harris, Markannen) so he is very valuable in that context.

- I like the comparison to a young Kevin Love (actually made that same comp the other day) that's pretty much his long term upside IMO, top 20 with elite out of position threes and FT%, and 20/10. 

- As a third year guy I'm expecting a steady leap this year and top 35-40 finish overall in 9-CAT (I'm probably a little higher on him than others)

- playoff schedule depends on your league settings - in my leagues were running with earliest setting available (playoffs finishing 22nd March) and in that case the Bulls go 4-4-3 which is better than most teams 

I think he will actually finisher higher than 35th in 9 cat on a per game basis, but I seem more concerned about his injury risk/schedule than you.  In my leagues the Bulls have the nut low schedule.    

[bkw77 181]

8 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

I think he will actually finisher higher than 35th in 9 cat on a per game basis, but I seem more concerned about his injury risk/schedule than you.  In my leagues the Bulls have the nut low schedule.    

 

Fair enough - Is that the standard yahoo schedule or have you moved it back a week later? 

 

We just moved ours one week earlier than normal in both my dyno leagues - we're keen to avoid late season resting/tanking situations as much as possible!

Edited August 27, 2019 by bkw77

[StifleTower2 2,525]

4 minutes ago, bkw77 said:

 

Fair enough - Is that the standard yahoo schedule or have you moved it back a week later? 

 

We just moved ours one week earlier than normal in both my dyno leagues - we're keen to avoid late season resting/tanking situations as much as possible!

We’ve moved it back a week so that’s 4-3-3.  I think standard is 3-3-2.

[Gile Pile 1,206]

Interesting that he went 38th...

https://www.fantrax.com/news/nba/fantasy-columns/c3hut1eijzo34l1l

[StifleTower2 2,525]

5 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

Interesting that he went 38th...

https://www.fantrax.com/news/nba/fantasy-columns/c3hut1eijzo34l1l

The draft was  ruined when Lloyd went Cousins/Randle 36/37.  Randle finished 79th last year despite going 21.4/8.7/3.1 due his weakness in other areas.  Chance in a million he finishes top 50 in 9 cat because the last two months of the season when he scored 24.6 he was actually worse at 91st.  I just don't see him improving enough to make up for his poor FT/TO.  Granted, Lloyd was working on a three cat punt after picking Westbrook/Drummond at 12/13.  Even so, I hate those two picks.  This was before the Cousins injury, obviously, but I'd still never pick those two there.  There were other bizarre picks but Lloyd is the guy most people on this forum recognize and he completely punted the draft away....    

[Mikhov 574]

3 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

The draft was  ruined when Lloyd went Cousins/Randle 36/37.  Randle finished 79th last year despite going 21.4/8.7/3.1 due his weakness in other areas.  Chance in a million he finishes top 50 in 9 cat because the last two months of the season when he scored 24.6 he was actually worse at 91st.  I just don't see him improving enough to make up for his poor FT/TO.  Granted, Lloyd was working on a three cat punt after picking Westbrook/Drummond at 12/13.  Even so, I hate those two picks.  This was before the Cousins injury, obviously, but I'd still never pick those two there.  There were other bizarre picks but Lloyd is the guy most people on this forum recognize and he completely punted the draft away....    

 

Says its a Points league though, they should be better in that format