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Lamar Miller 2019 Outlook


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48 minutes ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

The fact is, Houston was going to acquire another RB in the wake of Foreman's release no matter what. For Miller owners, this could have gone a lot worse. Duke will put an even larger cap on Miller's value in PPR leagues, but he likely isn't the type of RB who is a threat to steal the majority of every down work, like many thought Foreman had the potential to do.

As of about a week ago, a rather large portion of the fantasy community would have suggested that Foreman would take the reins at some point in 2019. Duke isn't going to be that same sort of threat. 

Honestly, if I were a Miller owner I'd sleep easier at night with Duke as my backup than a lot of other backups around the league. Duke's role is relatively defined and Miller's role isn't really any less safe than it was yesterday. 

Exactly, I was expected HOU to sign Ajayi or someone who could credibly threaten Miller's 1st and 2nd down share of touches.  Having Duke as his backup is best case scenario IMHO, anyone who thought the Texans wouldn't sign anyone at all after counting Foreman is delusional. 

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Just finished their drafts and heard the news about Miller  

He just never scores TDs. Him and James Conner had almost identical stats rushing the ball last year. Thing is Conner scored 12 TDs and Lamar only had 5.   

Literally drafted him 5 minutes before this broke lmao.

4 minutes ago, jumper said:

Exactly, I was expected HOU to sign Ajayi or someone who could credibly threaten Miller's 1st and 2nd down share of touches.  Having Duke as his backup is best case scenario IMHO, anyone who thought the Texans wouldn't sign anyone at all after counting Foreman is delusional. 

 

This is exactly right.  The doomsday scenario for Miller would be Houston trying to acquire one of the top guys being shopped (like Gordon), which never seemed likely, or bringing in a two-down runner like Ajayi to compete/split the role.  

If Miller can't keep his role in this offense against Duke Johnson, then he was never going to keep his role and it didn't matter who Houston brought in.

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11 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

I think he goes back to wherever you had him before Foreman was cut.  Foreman was going to take touches...now Duke will.  I don't see Lamar as an every down workhorse like he would've been had they not gotten Duke.

 

So from a RB2/Flex level guy up to....ummm.... what, a RB2/Flex level guy with Foreman gone? And now back to a RB2/Flex level guy with Duke in town?  OK.  Yeah, I guess maybe someone moved him up 1 or 2 spots in their rankings in that brief shining couple days when he was an "every down workhouse" and maybe rated him above Philip Lindsay, but it's not like he suddenly shot up to be a 2nd round pick or something.  

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2 hours ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

The fact is, Houston was going to acquire another RB in the wake of Foreman's release no matter what. For Miller owners, this could have gone a lot worse. Duke will put an even larger cap on Miller's value in PPR leagues, but he likely isn't the type of RB who is a threat to steal the majority of every down work, like many thought Foreman had the potential to do.

As of about a week ago, a rather large portion of the fantasy community would have suggested that Foreman would take the reins at some point in 2019. Duke isn't going to be that same sort of threat. 

Honestly, if I were a Miller owner I'd sleep easier at night with Duke as my backup than a lot of other backups around the league. Duke's role is relatively defined and Miller's role isn't really any less safe than it was yesterday. 

With all due respect, this is quite a horrible take.  Foreman and his blown-out achilles in 2019 was only a threat to make the roster as the 4th string tailback for pure depth and to be inactive on game days.  And Foreman did not even make it that far.

Duke Johnson, on the other hand, is actually quite good.  Yes he was misused by Hugh, but remember Johnson was the all time leading rusher for Miami when he entered the NFL.  Duke is a profound, existential threat to Lamar Miller.  Foreman may have been at one point, but only briefly and only prior to his achilles injury.

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18 minutes ago, jumper said:

 

So from a RB2/Flex level guy up to....ummm.... what, a RB2/Flex level guy with Foreman gone? And now back to a RB2/Flex level guy with Duke in town?  OK.  Yeah, I guess maybe someone moved him up 1 or 2 spots in their rankings in that brief shining couple days when he was an "every down workhouse" and maybe rated him above Philip Lindsay, but it's not like he suddenly shot up to be a 2nd round pick or something.  

 

If you're on this forum, you are obsessing over 1 or 2 spots up and down on your rankings.

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1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

With all due respect, this is quite a horrible take.  Foreman and his blown-out achilles in 2019 was only a threat to make the roster as the 4th string tailback for pure depth and to be inactive on game days.  And Foreman did not even make it that far.

 

Yikes. Well at least some other folks liked/agreed with my post. 

You may have misunderstood what I was saying, or I didn’t convey it effectively. Foreman, in his current form, is obviously not a threat to steal anybody’s job. Throughout his injury and in the months leading up to this year’s TC however, there were rumblings from people speculating that he could usurp Miller’s seat as Houston’s lead back. Once released, it became apparent that Foreman either never fully recovered or was never that great to begin with. 

Duke will see snaps as a 3rd down/pass catcher/COP guy. That doesn’t really ding Miller’s value much. Duke is not the kind of RB that will be a legit candidate to take over the backfield, as people once suspected Foreman might be capable of. 

Like I said initially, Houston was always going to acquire another RB no matter what. Miller is not going to see 100% of the touches obviously. In terms of retaining his share of the carries, there could have been several worse scenarios  

You seem to be turning it into a “who’s better” thing between Duke and Foreman. Obviously anyone looking on right now would say that Duke is better, but he’s not the “Mister Steal Yo Job” type of RB that some people USED TO think Foreman was. He’s a situational COP guy. 

I’m repeating myself alot but like i said, I don’t think my salient point came through when you read my last post. 

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I appreciate the vigorous discussion.  I think Duke is possibly more than simply a COP back.  And I am willing to pay something to find out.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 8/8/2019 at 12:57 PM, SharkSwimmer said:

Duke Johnson, on the other hand, is actually quite good.  Yes he was misused by Hugh, but remember Johnson was the all time leading rusher for Miami when he entered the NFL.  Duke is a profound, existential threat to Lamar Miller.

No offense, but Duke truthers have been saying this for 5 years now.  You can only blame Hugh for so much.  At some point you have to concede that what he does on the field and in practice every week, simply isn't showing anyone workhorse traits.  Hugh wasn't even there in '15, and got fired early last year, in fact the new CLE coach used Duke even less than Hugh did.  It's not like Duke has had any major competition either.  Terrance twinkletoes West, even as much as I liked him Isaiah Crowell, and then they went out and drafted Chubb.  The Browns organization is absolutely terrible, so while it wouldn't shock me to realize 'oh CLE was sitting on a gold mine this entire time and didn't notice!' the more realistic outcome is that Duke simply isn't what you, and many others, thought he was going to be.

Miller isn't special, he looked like he could be back in Miami, but those days have passed and at this point, I too, have to concede that Miller is also JAG.  While many are correct, he was a slow and steady RB2 at year's end, it's important to remember what it's like to own him.  You don't want to start him, unless it's a bye week hell, you can't trade him, you can't drop him, no one will take him, and you'll never start him except that bye week, and deep down every week, you know you're contemplating dropping him for an upside WW pickup, but you're just afraid of dropping a player you know your opponent(s) might pick up.

I think his draft price is fair, and for the right team compositions, he'll make perfect sense.  But I think Duke, while not a threat to his job, is a bigger threat to his touches.  Duke is a far better CoP than Foreman ever could have been.  If HOU can, for once, keep their players on the field, and with the right progression from Watson, KeKe, and Fuller in combination with Hopkins, and their defense finally players on field like they look on paper, then the entire team could significantly improve.  At the end of the day though, Miller will still most likely be a 2 down back, losing catches to Duke, and who never got goal line work in the first place.  Miller had 5 carries inside the 5 yard line last year, converting 2, which ranked 31st, and accounted for only 35% of his teams carries inside the 5.

Like I said, for certain draft scenarios, he's going to make sense in the 6th.  I just really hope I don't put myself in a position where he makes sense for me.  Even if he does, I'm going to look at guys like Adrian Peterson, Peyton Barber, LeSean McCoy who are getting drafted 4 rounds later and ask myself... what's the difference?  A bit of job security, maybe?

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4 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

No offense, but Duke truthers have been saying this for 5 years now.  You can only blame Hugh for so much.  At some point you have to concede that what he does on the field and in practice every week, simply isn't showing anyone workhorse traits.  Hugh wasn't even there in '15, and got fired early last year, in fact the new CLE coach used Duke even less than Hugh did.  It's not like Duke has had any major competition either.  Terrance twinkletoes West, even as much as I liked him Isaiah Crowell, and then they went out and drafted Chubb.  The Browns organization is absolutely terrible, so while it wouldn't shock me to realize 'oh CLE was sitting on a gold mine this entire time and didn't notice!' the more realistic outcome is that Duke simply isn't what you, and many others, thought he was going to be.

Miller isn't special, he looked like he could be back in Miami, but those days have passed and at this point, I too, have to concede that Miller is also JAG.  While many are correct, he was a slow and steady RB2 at year's end, it's important to remember what it's like to own him.  You don't want to start him, unless it's a bye week hell, you can't trade him, you can't drop him, no one will take him, and you'll never start him except that bye week, and deep down every week, you know you're contemplating dropping him for an upside WW pickup, but you're just afraid of dropping a player you know your opponent(s) might pick up.

I think his draft price is fair, and for the right team compositions, he'll make perfect sense.  But I think Duke, while not a threat to his job, is a bigger threat to his touches.  Duke is a far better CoP than Foreman ever could have been.  If HOU can, for once, keep their players on the field, and with the right progression from Watson, KeKe, and Fuller in combination with Hopkins, and their defense finally players on field like they look on paper, then the entire team could significantly improve.  At the end of the day though, Miller will still most likely be a 2 down back, losing catches to Duke, and who never got goal line work in the first place.  Miller had 5 carries inside the 5 yard line last year, converting 2, which ranked 31st, and accounted for only 35% of his teams carries inside the 5.

Like I said, for certain draft scenarios, he's going to make sense in the 6th.  I just really hope I don't put myself in a position where he makes sense for me.  Even if he does, I'm going to look at guys like Adrian Peterson, Peyton Barber, LeSean McCoy who are getting drafted 4 rounds later and ask myself... what's the difference?  A bit of job security, maybe?

Great post.  You are probably right.  If Duke could be a true workhorse back in the NFL, he likely would have shown it by now.

So true about Lamar Miller!  Can't really start him, trade him, or drop him.  The last year I won my main league, 2014, I had Miller but kept him glued to the bench in favor of my other RBs who performed well down the stretch. 

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4 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

No offense, but Duke truthers have been saying this for 5 years now.  You can only blame Hugh for so much.  At some point you have to concede that what he does on the field and in practice every week, simply isn't showing anyone workhorse traits.  Hugh wasn't even there in '15, and got fired early last year, in fact the new CLE coach used Duke even less than Hugh did.  It's not like Duke has had any major competition either.  Terrance twinkletoes West, even as much as I liked him Isaiah Crowell, and then they went out and drafted Chubb.  The Browns organization is absolutely terrible, so while it wouldn't shock me to realize 'oh CLE was sitting on a gold mine this entire time and didn't notice!' the more realistic outcome is that Duke simply isn't what you, and many others, thought he was going to be.

Miller isn't special, he looked like he could be back in Miami, but those days have passed and at this point, I too, have to concede that Miller is also JAG.  While many are correct, he was a slow and steady RB2 at year's end, it's important to remember what it's like to own him.  You don't want to start him, unless it's a bye week hell, you can't trade him, you can't drop him, no one will take him, and you'll never start him except that bye week, and deep down every week, you know you're contemplating dropping him for an upside WW pickup, but you're just afraid of dropping a player you know your opponent(s) might pick up.

I think his draft price is fair, and for the right team compositions, he'll make perfect sense.  But I think Duke, while not a threat to his job, is a bigger threat to his touches.  Duke is a far better CoP than Foreman ever could have been.  If HOU can, for once, keep their players on the field, and with the right progression from Watson, KeKe, and Fuller in combination with Hopkins, and their defense finally players on field like they look on paper, then the entire team could significantly improve.  At the end of the day though, Miller will still most likely be a 2 down back, losing catches to Duke, and who never got goal line work in the first place.  Miller had 5 carries inside the 5 yard line last year, converting 2, which ranked 31st, and accounted for only 35% of his teams carries inside the 5.

Like I said, for certain draft scenarios, he's going to make sense in the 6th.  I just really hope I don't put myself in a position where he makes sense for me.  Even if he does, I'm going to look at guys like Adrian Peterson, Peyton Barber, LeSean McCoy who are getting drafted 4 rounds later and ask myself... what's the difference?  A bit of job security, maybe?

Great post, but it’s “Hue” Jackson. Pedantic, but it’s been misspelled so many times on the Miller and Duke threads.

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Love having Miller back on my roster.  He provides that much needed depth and consistency.  He is not sexy at all but he always brings some points to the table week in and week out.  Not really scared of the Duke Johnson appearance.  I think that Duke had every opportunity to shine at Cleveland and, for some reason, it did not work out.  Maybe it was Hue...but maybe it was Duke.  Hell, new regime came in and Duke went non-existent.  Not sure what that says.  Let's be frank - I like Duke but I think he is not your ground and pound guy like Lamar.  Lamar makes a living between the tackles and still have the ability to catch passes.  My bigger concern is how Watson uses him once Coutee gets traction.  Hell, they may never run the ball. 

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