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Aristides Aquino 2019 Outlook


KilloWertz
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[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2019 season will be locked on 2019-11-28. Please finish any 2019 discussions here, and take any 2020 outlook discussions to the 2020 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2020.]

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Predictions of .275 and .270 and .265...for a guy with a minor league career avg of .248? I get that he changed his swing this year, and I am hopeful for his 2020 season, but I'm putting him down for .245 and hoping for better. He hit .240 in AA last year (404 ABs) and .216 in AA in 2017 (459 ABs). So I wouldn't remotely call .275 "conservative", nor can I see BAs of .265 or better over the course of a full season. Jmho. Maybe he's turned the corner this year with his BA as well as his HRs [...] 

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Just now, BigPapi44 said:

Funny, I was going to post a .265-.270 avg with 40HRs.

 

40 is conservative I feel too... This guy's power is immense while you can call his hot streak a fluke his power is no fluke it will play very well over the course of 150 games.  He already has 40 HRs between AAA and The MLB in only 102 games.  Also remember The Reds traded Puig because they wanted to make room for this guy to play every day.

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3 hours ago, FouLLine said:

 

40 is conservative I feel too... This guy's power is immense while you can call his hot streak a fluke his power is no fluke it will play very well over the course of 150 games.  He already has 40 HRs between AAA and The MLB in only 102 games.  Also remember The Reds traded Puig because they wanted to make room for this guy to play every day.

 

Depends on what MLB does with the ball, I believe. If they dial it back, I think 35-40 is reasonable to expect for 2020. I think about guys like Matt Olson and Cody Bellinger in their second years after having huge HR totals when they were called up. I'm not comping Aquino to them, but am just pointing out that we've see big HR binges from guys who come into the league, only to leave fantasy owners disappointed the following season. 

If the juiced ball remains, I can see 45ish. But I'm not going to go bananas with the projections. I want to see how he finishes this year, but I'm probably going to be putting him down for 35-100 type numbers...maybe 40-110. 

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19 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Depends on what MLB does with the ball, I believe. If they dial it back, I think 35-40 is reasonable to expect for 2020. I think about guys like Matt Olson and Cody Bellinger in their second years after having huge HR totals when they were called up. I'm not comping Aquino to them, but am just pointing out that we've see big HR binges from guys who come into the league, only to leave fantasy owners disappointed the following season. 

If the juiced ball remains, I can see 45ish. But I'm not going to go bananas with the projections. I want to see how he finishes this year, but I'm probably going to be putting him down for 35-100 type numbers...maybe 40-110. 

even with sub-par BA, that projection should be a top 50 guy, no?

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1 minute ago, MSkibisky said:

even with sub-par BA, that projection should be a top 50 guy, no?

 

Hard to say. I come at it from a 5x5 mentality, so it depends on how many runs we think he'll score and how many bases he might steal. I'll be captain obvious here, but I think the range on his potential 2020 stats is pretty wide (assuming a full, healthy season), and I wouldn't be surprised to see it fall anywhere within that range. 

Personally, I wouldn't be targeting him as a top 50 player. That's essentially the top 4 rounds in a 12-teamer, and I'd much rather go with more established hitters in that range. 

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1 minute ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Hard to say. I come at it from a 5x5 mentality, so it depends on how many runs we think he'll score and how many bases he might steal. I'll be captain obvious here, but I think the range on his potential 2020 stats is pretty wide (assuming a full, healthy season), and I wouldn't be surprised to see it fall anywhere within that range. 

Personally, I wouldn't be targeting him as a top 50 player. That's essentially the top 4 rounds in a 12-teamer, and I'd much rather go with more established hitters in that range. 

Yea, that's what im thinking. although even with a 12 man 5x5 (what i am currently in), 40/100 is almost a solidified keeper.

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I'm going to be keeping a close eye on his SB numbers.  He's known primarily as a slugger, but he's no slowpoke out there. Some names right around him on the Statcast sprint speed leaderboard are Wil Myers, Jose Altuve, and Christian Yelich.  Stealing bags is obviously about more than just raw baserunning speed, but if the team's going to let him run and he's not regularly running into outs, chipping in 10-15 steals a year could be huge boost that could help him provide some roto value even when he slumps a bit at the plate.

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8 minutes ago, MSkibisky said:

Yea, that's what im thinking. although even with a 12 man 5x5 (what i am currently in), 40/100 is almost a solidified keeper.

 

I think depends on how guys view this juiced ball. If the HR production is off-the-charts again next year, 40-100 isn't as big a deal as it normally would be. We have four days left in August (including today), and there are 24 players with 30+ HRs. There's another 22 with 27-29 HRs, so we could have over 40 players entering September with 30+ HR. The HR has been devalued quite a bit, imho, because it's so easily accessible for fantasy owners. So I can see Aquino being left off keeper lists for safer keepers, unless he is a low-round keeper or has a low dollar value in an auction league. 

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IMO they aren’t going to change the ball... from what I heard ever since MLB bought the rights to make the baseballs, the ball is being made at an extremely higher quality and more tightly wound due to better equipment and more control over production. I don’t think they are going lower the quality of the ball or reduce production quality. HR’s are fun and MLB knows this... no point to revert a good thing.

 

Now with Aquino, I have been watching his at bats the last couple games and he has a great batters eye. Been laying off fastballs and breaking pitches right outside the zone. Working the count and taking walks. Driving outside and off-speed pitches the other ways. These are qualities of a good hitter. I do see where there could be some hesitation though because of his awkward batting stance, long lanky limbs, and small sample size so far... he could be on one hell of a hot streak.. I think more time is needed for evaluation...but I’m starting to be a believer.

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1 hour ago, bjvance5 said:

IMO they aren’t going to change the ball... from what I heard ever since MLB bought the rights to make the baseballs, the ball is being made at an extremely higher quality and more tightly wound due to better equipment and more control over production. I don’t think they are going lower the quality of the ball or reduce production quality. HR’s are fun and MLB knows this... no point to revert a good thing.

 

This assumes you can't have a high quality ball while mitigating some of the HR potential. Or that you'd have to lower the quality of the ball to reduce HR totals. I don't believe either assumption is true. Simply raising the seams some would be helpful. And yes, HRs are fun, but there is conversation about there being too much of a good thing. 

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3-5 with another HR.  It's getting tougher to not see this kid as being the real deal.  Again, I don't think he's hitting .300 next year but I also don't think he's going to be Joc Pederson.  Will be interesting to see how he finishes out the year.

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47 minutes ago, checkers said:

steroid check pls..... unreal!

nah, he's clean. Dude has doesnt half the arms of Mikey Stanton. He just swing out of his shoes. He is 6'4" 220, so just a naturally big dude. I am 6'4" 205  so adding 15lbs to me would be some meat.

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3 hours ago, bradwatson said:

Most homers ever in a single month by a rookie. But everyone should drop him because he Ks 25% of the time.

Nobody said drop him.  It’s fair to have people point out flaws so posters can analyze all angles.  If every thread was one big circle jerk it wouldn’t do anyone any good.  He’s had a historic start.  Baseball is a strange game though.  Will be an interesting guy to follow to see who he truly is.

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1 hour ago, Cmilne23 said:

Nobody said drop him.  It’s fair to have people point out flaws so posters can analyze all angles.  If every thread was one big circle jerk it wouldn’t do anyone any good.  He’s had a historic start.  Baseball is a strange game though.  Will be an interesting guy to follow to see who he truly is.

I agree.  I don't think we can just discount the K rate.  Look, he just past Rhys Hoskins for the fastest HR start in league history.  That's super impressive and it should reinforce the power is real.  But we should remember how Rhys Hoskins came out of the gate and it is a good reminder when looking at him now in terms of where is average may go.  Does it mean that Aquino's average will drop dramatically like Hoskins?  No.  But it does serve food for thought and there will be some regression, it's just a matter of where you believe his average will wind up on the spectrum.

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