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Aristides Aquino 2019 Outlook


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[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2019 season will be locked on 2019-11-28. Please finish any 2019 discussions here, and take any 2020 outlook discussions to the 2020 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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Love the haters on guys like this. Price is literally zero and even if he falls off a cliff he has still helped anyone who took a flyer on him. It's not like anyone spent a draft pick on this guy. It'

Lol.

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Just now, MSkibisky said:

I just can't bring myself to bench him...

 

Unless you have other options with some reasonable upside, you probably shouldn't (unless he comes up against DeGrom, Max or one of those stud rightys)

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1 hour ago, MSkibisky said:

I just can't bring myself to bench him...

 

Aquino is set it and forget it... There is a really bad misconception floating around here that many have applied strongly to Aqunio.  Which is that he WILL SUCK EVENTUALLY.  Yes everyone understood regression was on the horizon when he was pacing for over 80 HRs.  But that doesn't mean he regresses into uselessness.  If he regresses to an .890 OPS guy the rest of the season that is still extremely useful.  Guys who have these huge hot streaks everyone expects them to go 0 for 30 to make up for (or balance out) the hot streak and that isn't how it works. 

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39 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

  But that doesn't mean he regresses into uselessness.  If he regresses to an .890 OPS guy the rest of the season that is still extremely useful.  

 

Obviously an 890 OPS guy is very useful at any position, he's hit nowhere near that recently. i think he could still be good, but 890 is still quite high, I'd take the under on that ROS. 

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You can’t teach plate discipline overnight.  These are numbers that scream AWFUL plate discipline.  As I said previously in this thread he seemed like a batter that could easily be exploited once pitchers figured out his weaknesses.  Seems that has happened.

 

With that said, Aquino still suffers substantial swing-and-miss (17% SwStr in INT, 18.5% SwStr in MLB). Further, he utilizes one of the most swing-happy (57% swing!) approaches in the majors. As such, he almost certainly will regress, and it would not be surprising if his batting average flirted with the Mendoza Line.

 

 

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On 8/18/2019 at 8:50 PM, miasma16 said:

Sure.

I suppose we're all a bit confused. His K rate and BB rate are passable, despite what you never said above. He's hitting a homer every game, so he passes the eye test. So why are you trying to rag on his plate skills? From both a mathematical and observational standpoint, he seems just fine at the plate.

Oops.  Looks like the K:BB is a huge concern, like he pointed out.  Your analysis in this thread is horrifying.

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To further elaborate on the plate discipline issues that some reckless posters wanted to deem as a non talking point because he was “homering every single game” (like that was going to last).  His O swing% if he had enough at bats to qualify would put him in top 8 in MLB, and his O contact % would be top 25 worst.  He’s extending zone far too much.  Pitchers have clearly adjusted as shown by his .422 September OPS.  It’s sad when posters who come into these threads with an objective opinion and get eaten alive by people. 

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5 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

To further elaborate on the plate discipline issues that some reckless posters wanted to deem as a non talking point because he was “homering every single game” (like that was going to last).  His O swing% if he had enough at bats to qualify would put him in top 8 in MLB, and his O contact % would be top 25 worst.  He’s extending zone far too much.  Pitchers have clearly adjusted as shown by his .422 September OPS.  It’s sad when posters who come into these threads with an objective opinion and get eaten alive by people. 

I agree with this 100%. Not sure why anyone is surprised at what's happening with Aquino. Half of us predicted this. Yes, it's always fun to ride the hot hand, and you should definitely enjoy it, but too many people here were super dismissive when we mentioned how bad his plate discipline is. The power will be there for sure, but home runs aren't extremely valuable right now, and that makes Aquino not that great.

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2 hours ago, jspeco9 said:

I agree with this 100%. Not sure why anyone is surprised at what's happening with Aquino. Half of us predicted this. Yes, it's always fun to ride the hot hand, and you should definitely enjoy it, but too many people here were super dismissive when we mentioned how bad his plate discipline is. The power will be there for sure, but home runs aren't extremely valuable right now, and that makes Aquino not that great.

Agreed, it’s usually the plankton posters of the forums who ruin threads for people.  Sadly their trolling attempts go unnoticed and they get to continue posting and harming the community.  Pretty clear looking back through this thread who the posters are who should be apologizing to guys like @absknicks who came in here in mist of hot streak to try and give another angle and was greeted with vitriol from posters.  Debate in any thread is a good thing.  It’s sad these fluff threads turn so violent quickly when you doubt the flavor of the week.  Keeping an open mind is always key to best analysis.  Hope a few who whiffed violently in here will come back and be better next year.  

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14 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Agreed, it’s usually the plankton posters of the forums who ruin threads for people.  Sadly their trolling attempts go unnoticed and they get to continue posting and harming the community.  Pretty clear looking back through this thread who the posters are who should be apologizing to guys like @absknicks who came in here in mist of hot streak to try and give another angle and was greeted with vitriol from posters.  Debate in any thread is a good thing.  It’s sad these fluff threads turn so violent quickly when you doubt the flavor of the week.  Keeping an open mind is always key to best analysis.  Hope a few who whiffed violently in here will come back and be better next year.  

*clap clap*. What a great post.  I too find that there is a lot of vitriol (great word choice btw) on here when someone doesn’t tow the company line.  Debates on here are excellent and have helped me immensely.  As far as Aquino is concerned, I’m consider myself completely impartial because I don’t own him, yet was very jealous of those that did (not bitter.) in my opinion, you cannot discount the power surge he had.  It was real, it happened.  He will get drafted next year and contribute to teams.  Matt Olson is the guy  I can’t  get out of my head (massive power month rookie year, 25%ish k rate, 2 something to 1 k:bb.)  Power IS important, even though it’s easy to find, if EVERYONE can find power, all the more reason that I want an over abundance of it so that I’m ahead of the game.  I’d probably bench him for these 2 weeks if that was an option,  He’ll likely be kept in my league, but he definately interests me.

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2 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

*clap clap*. What a great post.  I too find that there is a lot of vitriol (great word choice btw) on here when someone doesn’t tow the company line.  Debates on here are excellent and have helped me immensely.  As far as Aquino is concerned, I’m consider myself completely impartial because I don’t own him, yet was very jealous of those that did (not bitter.) in my opinion, you cannot discount the power surge he had.  It was real, it happened.  He will get drafted next year and contribute to teams.  Matt Olson is the guy  I can’t  get out of my head (massive power month rookie year, 25%ish k rate, 2 something to 1 k:bb.)  Power IS important, even though it’s easy to find, if EVERYONE can find power, all the more reason that I want an over abundance of it so that I’m ahead of the game.  I’d probably bench him for these 2 weeks if that was an option,  He’ll likely be kept in my league, but he definately interests me.

Between Aquino and Matt Olson, I do pick Matt Olson everyday without any hesitation. I luckily was able to pick both kids. I still own Matt Olson. I dropped Aquino after he cooled off.

Aquino was a hot hand to ride just like 3/4 of prospects called up on Major. We should just pick them, and ride them as long as they are hot, and then goodbye. At least in re-draft league. Aquino isn't the only kid in this case. Will Smith (Dodgers) the same.

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Last 8 games: .290-6-3-7-3 in 31 ABs. This includes today’s games. We all knew this guy wasn’t a .300 hitter, but if he can be a .250+ hitter with 35 HR (in a non-juiced-ball season) and 15 SB, that’s very useful. 

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But, but, that plate discipline.... (ducks as the talking heads arrive to preach about that)........ this thread went waaaay off track, from both sides, not just 1, even HOF posters crossed the line at times....Dynasty owners are gonna pop the popcorn, sit back and enjoy the read seeing as most of us picked up the Punisher for our end of bench player, you know,  FREE.........So save your breath as I could care less about anything other than my leagues' settings, the 4 cats he's gonna stuff, and reading his thread next season, it's gonna be polarizing...those sbs man, might they sway you negative nellies? I mean, KDavis gets love, but he doesn't steal, has a similar profile, no? 240ish with 30-40 bombs, heath impacting?  AND, The Punisher plays in a bandbox... 

Don't punish the believers until he proves you right, until then, you're not, plate discipline be damned, in the end, counting stats are all we care about....

 if he flames out?   I'll eat crow here,(even though this is my first post in this thread),  will you do the same?  But asking for apologies? Really? and calling them names?  Still as classy as always...

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