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T.J. Warren 2019-2020 Outlook


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Mr. Buckets. Plain and simple. He's probably one of my favorite players to target every year and always get him rather late than expected for a middle round guy. He and the Pacers fit like a glove. Not only it was good fit for his defensive development, but more exposure towards an audience. I can't wait to own him on a couple squads ( hopefully ).

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Was really nice to see him knock down threes last year while maintaining his FG%. Crazy that last year at .486 on 14 attempts was his worst year. Also love the spike in FT.

My concern is missed games, as I am a H2H player. Pretty much missed half the season in 3 of his 5 years and hasn't played more than 66 in a season. IIRC with weird head injuries that don't really have timetables.

Love the per game stats, though it's really annoying when he's scheduled for 12 games in 3 weeks and only plays 3. I think I'll be looking for value picks from guys like Joe Harris, Josh Richardson, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kelly Oubre Jr instead of taking TJ Warren as my 6th man (finished 75th per BBM).

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43 minutes ago, tongs said:

Was really nice to see him knock down threes last year while maintaining his FG%. Crazy that last year at .486 on 14 attempts was his worst year. Also love the spike in FT.

My concern is missed games, as I am a H2H player. Pretty much missed half the season in 3 of his 5 years and hasn't played more than 66 in a season. IIRC with weird head injuries that don't really have timetables.

Love the per game stats, though it's really annoying when he's scheduled for 12 games in 3 weeks and only plays 3. I think I'll be looking for value picks from guys like Joe Harris, Josh Richardson, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kelly Oubre Jr instead of taking TJ Warren as my 6th man (finished 75th per BBM).

 

This is probably me talking out of my a**, but I suspect he has Vertigo. It's impossible to really know. Those head injuries have been pretty hush-hush; understandably.

 

 

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He was playing for a tanking suns team who basically needed a small reason to shut a good player down.. remember Bledsoe? 

I think with pacers fighting for playoffs and them losing Bojanhe’ll slot in at 3 and get consistent minutes. The fact that he can also play PF in case the sabonis experiment doesn’t work. you could do worse than him around pick 100 where he is likely available 

Edited by Fantasyvirgin
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4 hours ago, Fantasyvirgin said:

He was playing for a tanking suns team who basically needed a small reason to shut a good player down.. remember Bledsoe? 

I think with pacers fighting for playoffs and them losing Bojanhe’ll slot in at 3 and get consistent minutes. The fact that he can also play PF in case the sabonis experiment doesn’t work. you could do worse than him around pick 100 where he is likely available 

 

I'd be highly surprised seeing him available that late. Probably would grab him a round earlier at least :-)

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One of the most underrated and perplexing players in all of fantasy.  I wonder if his diet is poor and high in sugar and oxidized omega 6 vegetable oil, which promotes inflammation and lengthens the healing process.  

 

I think he'll have his best year statistically, and hopefully the Pacers have a better medical staff than the Suns.  

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  • 1 month later...

I wanted to bring him back into the mix here. I think experts are way too hard on this guy. Josh did an ADP/rank analysis draft about a month back and was completely sour on Warren even though he was 95th ADP. I see that as an amazing bargain value given who else is available in those rounds. He's one of the only guys hovering there who can outplay his ADP by 4-5-6 rounds. He has those kinds of tools.

Pros:

-> coming into his prime year at 26

-> Indiana needs offense badly. Brogdon, Jeremy Lamb, Warren, Sabonis, and Turner is their offense until Oladipo gets back up to speed (and he may not be the same given his injury and time off). Warren is primed to be the leading scorer on this team.

-> His statistical profile (even though it was on a bad team) in fairly large sample size of 43 games reads like someone drafted in the 3rd round (say Otto Porter who scores even less). 18/4/1.5/1.2/.7 and 1.8 3's on 48.6% FG, 81.5% FT in just 31 minutes is great value when his ADP is 95+. 

-> He's had 5 seasons of 40, 47, 66, 65, and 43 games. Watching Suns games, he's had some horrible luck with some random falls that led to concussions which kept him out for long times. On the other hand he also gets nicked up a lot with small injuries and seems to miss a lot more time than most players. The reason why I'm putting a positive spin on it is because if you take a gamble, generally as players get older they get healthier. Many players figure out how to keep their bodies in better shape and also do things differently. We can also hedge that Indiana (a much better team and staff than Phoenix) will take care of him better. So it's entirely possible Warren could play 70+ games for the first time just by taking a gamble that this is the year it happens.

Cons:

-> While his shooting stroke is smooth, he's never shown to be a 42% 3pt FG shooter on such high volume. His volume went up significantly. We don't know if Indiana will keep his volume that high the way Phoenix did, or whether he'll regress back to his previous 3 point shooting. It buoys his value. If he goes back to being a mid range scorer and loses the 3 point, he's basically just a one tricky pony (good percentages, steals, some out of position blocks and high scoring). Aside from injuries this would explain his ADP if Yahoo! believes that was a mirage.

-> Health is the biggest red flag. I drafted him two years ago and he was returning top 30 value for me in the first month or so, I was extremely happy. He then went on to miss so many games that I became insanely frustrated owning him. I can only imagine what people went through last year, missing 40+ games is no joke. It can cost you a playoff position or even a playoff victory if you can't find a statistical replacement.

 

 

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15 hours ago, Lifschitz said:

Cons:

-> While his shooting stroke is smooth, he's never shown to be a 42% 3pt FG shooter on such high volume. His volume went up significantly. We don't know if Indiana will keep his volume that high the way Phoenix did, or whether he'll regress back to his previous 3 point shooting. It buoys his value. If he goes back to being a mid range scorer and loses the 3 point, he's basically just a one tricky pony (good percentages, steals, some out of position blocks and high scoring). Aside from injuries this would explain his ADP if Yahoo! believes that was a mirage.

-> Health is the biggest red flag. I drafted him two years ago and he was returning top 30 value for me in the first month or so, I was extremely happy. He then went on to miss so many games that I became insanely frustrated owning him. I can only imagine what people went through last year, missing 40+ games is no joke. It can cost you a playoff position or even a playoff victory if you can't find a statistical replacement.

 

 

 

TJ's commitment to developing his long range shot during the '18 off-season was well-documented.  He pretty much spent the whole summer working on this 3 stroke and it really showed during the '18-19 season.  I cannot fathom why Indiana would ask TJ to revert back to a mid-range shooter given the leaguewide shift towards efficient scoring (i.e close to the basket or outside the arc). 

The biggest red flags imo, are not just the inevitable random injuries but the more concerning extended recovery time he takes to get back on the court.  Also, the impact Dipo has on the rest of the Pacers starting unit once he gets his legs back under him.  Pacers are a deeper team, obviously, so he's probably not going to see 34-37 mpg like he was during the healthy stretch early/mid-season last year in PHX when they made him their primary stretch 4 and gave him all Ryno's minutes -- that was a perfect scenario for T.J. to ball out. 

More pros; 

- Indy's 3/4/4 playoff schedule 

- Better coaching 

- Playing alongside a true PG in Brogdon 

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I have owned this guy at some point each of the last 3 years.. dude is a flat out  9-cat roto monster when he puts it altogether. I think the change of scenery to a playoff contending team where is he is basically forced to be a scorer from the jump is going to do wonders for his output this year. I am in a 14 team 9-cat roto leage ( extremely competetive) and I am contemplating taking him at 60 because i don't think we will be there at my next pick, 81st. He is easily a top 60 value if he puts it altogether this year and plays 72+ games. EASILY. Im all aboard "Mr. Buckets" this year! choo choo!!   

(18, 5, 2   1.5 treys, 1.2 streals, 0.6 blks, 1.7 TOs-  48FG, 79 FT)

Edited by MNDOGG
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He is absolutely this years Gallo - lite, - injury history, no one likes, but can put up top 30 ish value when healthy.  Not the bargain of Gallo last year, meaning that you'll probably have to take him in the top 100, he won't fall past that (or if he does you so lucky).  I think Gallo was like pick 120-150 or something stupid last year.  

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1 minute ago, hipriest69 said:

He is absolutely this years Gallo - lite, - injury history, no one likes, but can put up top 30 ish value when healthy.  Not the bargain of Gallo last year, meaning that you'll probably have to take him in the top 100, he won't fall past that (or if he does you so lucky).  I think Gallo was like pick 120-150 or something stupid last year.  

The problem with this sort of comparison is that aside from one year when Gallo ranked 82nd, he was top 50 in per game every year for five seasons.  Whereas, Warren's best year was last year.  Gambling on Gallinari late is safer than people think imo, bc if he players you know precisely what sort of production you're getting.  Simply roll the dice and pray he plays.  Warren could go one of many different ways.  He was top 50 last year bc he finally started making threes.  Warren might have higher upside because he gets more stocks and he has more opportunity now than ever.  However, I could see any range of possibilities from him from getting top 30 value but missing games, to falling out of the top 75, to getting top 50 value and playing.  His possible production and games are all over the map.  How do you calculate that sort of risk?  Gallo is like playing J10s, play it, see a flop, easy to fold if you miss.  Warren is dropping your buy-in on the roulette wheel and saying f--- it.    

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17 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

The problem with this sort of comparison is that aside from one year when Gallo ranked 82nd, he was top 50 in per game every year for five seasons.  Whereas, Warren's best year was last year.  Gambling on Gallinari late is safer than people think imo, bc if he players you know precisely what sort of production you're getting.  Simply roll the dice and pray he plays.  Warren could go one of many different ways.  He was top 50 last year bc he finally started making threes.  Warren might have higher upside because he gets more stocks and he has more opportunity now than ever.  However, I could see any range of possibilities from him from getting top 30 value but missing games, to falling out of the top 75, to getting top 50 value and playing.  His possible production and games are all over the map.  How do you calculate that sort of risk?  Gallo is like playing J10s, play it, see a flop, easy to fold if you miss.  Warren is dropping your buy-in on the roulette wheel and saying f--- it.    

 

I think it's crazy that he went from a 22% shooter making 0.3 a game to a 43% shooter making 1.8 a game.  Also his free throw shooting went up by 6%.  Who knows if he can keep this up over a full 82 games?  He only played 43 last year

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11 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

The problem with this sort of comparison is that aside from one year when Gallo ranked 82nd, he was top 50 in per game every year for five seasons.  Whereas, Warren's best year was last year.  Gambling on Gallinari late is safer than people think imo, bc if he players you know precisely what sort of production you're getting.  Simply roll the dice and pray he plays.  Warren could go one of many different ways.  He was top 50 last year bc he finally started making threes.  Warren might have higher upside because he gets more stocks and he has more opportunity now than ever.  However, I could see any range of possibilities from him from getting top 30 value but missing games, to falling out of the top 75, to getting top 50 value and playing.  His possible production and games are all over the map.  How do you calculate that sort of risk?  Gallo is like playing J10s, play it, see a flop, easy to fold if you miss.  Warren is dropping your buy-in on the roulette wheel and saying f--- it.    

 

That is true, also because Gallo's FT/points/3's are stable, whereas TJ has the 3's/steals/FG combo which is a little more volatile in rankings, easier to spike or fall off, and harder to predict (see Harris, Gary).  He could be 48% FG with 2 threes and 1.5 steals, or he could be 45% FG with 1.2 threes and 1 steal...which would probably mean a 30-40 or more swing in his rankings...for points I think he's as safe a bet for 18 points from that last group of top 100 players while still being efficient, and is almost a no-brainer pick for me if I need points and he's there around that 8th-10th round.   

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22 hours ago, chaiway said:

Gallo was top 30 per game and played 68 games last year... Will take anything close to that all day....


Gallos best season in 8 years? Of course youll take that. However hes missed nearly 140 games in those previous 7 seasons. Would you take his 21 games played from the season before? I highly doubt that.

All i know is if im stuck with Gallo or Warren, im waiting until they have a nice decent stretch of games just so i can trade them. I mean whats the point of having a top 50 guy who only plays 60% of the season? Warrens had 5 straight injury riddled seasons so hes already close to Gallo.

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3 minutes ago, jay_00 said:


Gallos best season in 8 years? Of course youll take that. However hes missed nearly 140 games in those previous 7 seasons. Would you take his 21 games played from the season before? I highly doubt that.

All i know is if im stuck with Gallo or Warren, im waiting until they have a nice decent stretch of games just so i can trade them. I mean whats the point of having a top 50 guy who only plays 60% of the season? Warrens had 5 straight injury riddled seasons so hes already close to Gallo.

Well, if you play roto I’d be happy to have 60 games of a guy consistently ranked in the 40s, assuming he’s a 70th pick or later.  If it’s H2H the main thing is playing during the fantasy playoffs. A player could miss the first 40 games and play 40 of the remaining 42 games, so you’ll quickly forget him missing early in the season. Conversely, a player much expensive than Gallo could play the first 70 games, and get shutdown during the fantasy playoffs.  It really just depends. 

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10 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

Well, if you play roto I’d be happy to have 60 games of a guy consistently ranked in the 40s, assuming he’s a 70th pick or later.  If it’s H2H the main thing is playing during the fantasy playoffs. A player could miss the first 40 games and play 40 of the remaining 42 games, so you’ll quickly forget him missing early in the season. Conversely, a player much expensive than Gallo could play the first 70 games, and get shutdown during the fantasy playoffs.  It really just depends. 


I didnt say 60 games, i said 60% lol. That means hell likely play about 50 games. Theres no advantage even if he is ranked in the 40s for that 50 game stretch because the player youre forced to sub in for him will most likely be in the 100s, which will easily offset his top 50 rank. So im glad Gallo is ranked this high, since that means people will most likely overspend for him (in auction leagues), and that will cost them in roto. Warren at least is dirt cheap, so theres still value with him.

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