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Gary Harris 2019-2020 Outlook


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He was consistently improving each year ending up 35th in 9cat in 2017-2018 but was just straight up horrible last season.
There were injuries of course and normally you would expect a return to form the next season but it is pretty alarming that he still played 57 games and was just consistently bad even through the stretches where he was supposedly healthy.

A permanent drop in steals or minutes could also greatly reduce his value, but the top 35 potential is clearly there as we've seen him reach it before.
At this point I'm not even sure if he should be projected in the top 50 or the top 150, how do you guys feel about him going forward?

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He's been terrible who would be buying after one game? Dropped him a long time ago in a 12 team.

Not to mention his skill set is one of the most replicable: 3 and D wing.  His scoring is solid but that’s going to drop given their depth.  His steals are solid but unremarkable.  The only thing impr

My problem with rostering Gary is, you’re hoping for four things: him to shoot well in most of his games, not turn it over, get a three and a steal, of which, him not turning it over is the only sure

1 hour ago, greatestmetfan said:

Drafted him in the 5th round last year over Vucevic... never again.

 

Love Gary but the injury history is real.  I have no doubt he can turn it around because he's very skilled but I would only take him if he's available in the 7th-8th round.

 Not to mention his skill set is one of the most replicable: 3 and D wing.  His scoring is solid but that’s going to drop given their depth.  His steals are solid but unremarkable.  The only thing impressive about him is high FG for a shooting guard.  Idk if that’s worth a top 50 pick, even if he plays to expectation.  Sure if I can get him in the 6th round I’d be happy to take the risk but I don’t really want him to be my fourth or fifth best player.  The best word to describe him is serviceable. 

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I'm looking to get him in the 10th. He cant stay on the floor and wasn't able to come near his steals from a couple seasons ago. Denver has depth and I think he will slip to the late rounds so I wouldn't be too aggressive on him, but you could get a bargain pick if late. 

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My problem with rostering Gary is, you’re hoping for four things: him to shoot well in most of his games, not turn it over, get a three and a steal, of which, him not turning it over is the only sure thing as his usage is so low when Denver is healthy. IIRC him breaking out had a lot to do with Barton, Millsap and Murray missing time (and pre-Beasley relevance) - he’s talented and can be a high IQ scorer, but he defers too much.

He barely contributes anywhere else (<3 rpg / <3apg) and looking at his steals, his 1.8 spg two seasons ago seem like an outlier compared to the rest of his career.

If he can stay healthy, he should bounce back from last season, but with a floor in the 200s, poor popcorn stats and more young talent available in the mid-late, i’ll probably only consider him a round or two into the 100s

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9 minutes ago, Mikhov said:

My problem with rostering Gary is, you’re hoping for four things: him to shoot well in most of his games, not turn it over, get a three and a steal, of which, him not turning it over is the only sure thing as his usage is so low when Denver is healthy. IIRC him breaking out had a lot to do with Barton, Millsap and Murray missing time (and pre-Beasley relevance) - he’s talented and can be a high IQ scorer, but he defers too much.

He barely contributes anywhere else (<3 rpg / <3apg) and looking at his steals, his 1.8 spg two seasons ago seem like an outlier compared to the rest of his career.

If he can stay healthy, he should bounce back from last season, but with a floor in the 200s, poor popcorn stats and more young talent available in the mid-late, i’ll probably only consider him a round or two into the 100s

Coincidentally the same could all be said of Barton...and worse.  I think they’ll both bounce back to a degree but they won’t be good insofar as good is defined as above median in a 12 team league. 

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For me, if he slips to round 10 I'll probably get him, but where he's currently ranked at I have other interests.

His ranking is #85 on FanTrax and Hashtag, and for T40 upside that seems low and a great value, but around that ranking both sites also have Hayward, SGA, Oubre, Kanter, Jonathan Isaac, LeVert, and Delon Wright. I'd probably take all of those guys over Gary most days, because as mentioned his statset isn't irreplaceable and there are injury concerns.

 

I would, however, take him over Jeremy Lamb, who is also ranked above him on both lists  (#79/#80).

 

I've always liked his game and his defense, so I think he can bounce back for a T50 finish, but I'm not going to overpay and draft him in the T50. I'll also have to see where his ADP is in relation to rankings. 

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Solid DND for me.  I have never targeted him until last year, was about to take the plunge and got sniped.  Thank God.  Congrats to whoever drafts him if he bounces back.  It won't be me.  If I want steals and 3's I'll take PJ Tucker with my last pick.  

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Before last season he was very highly hyped, but I never considered him before 6th round. For example last season: why I had to draft Harris at 4th or 5th round, if Vucevic and Horford were available? But starting from late middle rounds he is valuable even this year when all hype is gone.

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Very much a guy I'm targeting in later rounds with the potential to replicate top 50-ish value from 2  years ago when fully healthy.  Just reading the comments on this thread (e.g. the one right above my post) and considering some of the awful low-ball offers I'm gotten in a few of my dynasties, his value is at its lowest point so he should be easy to get quite late in drafts.

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Somehow he is labeled as injury prone now. And man, Denver has got too many talents, Will Barton, Malik Beasley, Blue Arrow, Monte Morris, that's just too many mouths to feed. 

And the ball will be in Jamal Murray and N Jokic's hand 70% of the time. The only way those guys can outperform their ADP is steal and FG%. 

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I've done three early drafts so far and haven't gotten him.  Here's why I wouldn't call him a "sleeper".  His finishes have been: 163, 34, 56, 88.  You can see a clear progression until his injury plagued last season, which is good.  However, if you dig deeper into his stats you see some serious problems.  He only achieved 1.8 steals once so that is an outlier.  Every other year he has been 1-1.3 so I think his true median is about 1.2.  He's scored over 15 only once: 13, 17.5, 15, 12.  I think the most likely outcome for him is 14 points.  I would project his line to be: 14/3/3; 2 threes, 1.2 steals; 48/82/1.5 TO.  That's mediocre for H2H and I would put it about the same tier as Ingles, Ross, Gordon.  In roto, what you're paying for is high FG% for a shooting guard, that's about the only advantage he has over other shooting guards in his tier.

 

But here's a bigger problem, his games played are: 57, 67, 57, 76.  Somehow he was able to avoid the injury prone label until last year.  I would pencil him in for about fifteen missed games.  Given Denver's depth I think they will be even more prone to rest him.  If you compare him to someone like Ingles, who hasn't missed a game in three seasons and has a great PO schedule (at least in my leagues), I'd put Ingles at least a round ahead of Gary.  Past 75 or so there's less statistical differentiation between players so I'd put a lot of weight on injury history/schedule.  

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  • tonycpsu changed the title to Gary Harris 2019-2020 Outlook

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