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LeBron James 2019-2020 Outlook


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59 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

Where you live has no bearing on whether or not you’re a LeBron homer.  I’d suspect 90% of people born after 1990 are LeBron homers.  Not that I’m putting you into that camp either.  I guess agree to disagree because my stance is two fold: 1) no one at the age of 35 that I’m aware of has returned from injury and posted top 10 value the previous year; 2) His very nature, punt FT/To caps his upside.  Historically, his freakish stats have been enough to overcome this disadvantage but I’m skeptical if he can do that this year.  I’m not going to entertain notions of him being motivated bc to me that’s an egocentric argument.  Everyone wants to win and one can’t measure how badly a player wants to win, there is no metric for that.  And if you want to go that route then Conley, Mitchell, Stifle etc are so ******** motivated to win bc they’ve never won before.  It’s not measurable. FWIW I almost drafted LeBron 8th in a $200 buy in H2H league but drafted Beal instead.  I don’t like either of those picks which highlights the difficult picking past 5 this year.  If anyone wants to pick LeBron there, may as well, have to pick someone.

 

Oh, I guess I am old school.  To me "homer" means someone who is biased towards their home-town team.  But I forget that this is no longer such a thing, as kids these days only follow players, not teams. I do recognize Lebron's greatness, but don't think that makes me a homer one bit.  And yes, I am a product of the 80's...

I am fine on agree to disagree but then again not sure we're really disagreeing.  I wouldn't draft him before any of:  Harden, Curry, Giannis, AD, KAT, Jokic, Kawhi, Lillard, Beal, and any of PG, Vuc, Drum or Butler are questionable.  Where we may disagree is that I think he will play a lot of minutes and will play more effectively than last year because his team will actually be in the running. Can't fault anyone who thinks otherwise; predicting health is futile.

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as of Aug 19, 2019 the correct answer is Kawhi. We will agree to disagree...

Presumably every player is fired up AF bc their livelihood and legacy relies on it.  Unfortunately, basketball is a skill sport, and I don’t think being fired up is a category in 9 cat. 

Ah, now I see where all these absurd takes are coming from...

1 hour ago, StifleTower2 said:

Where you live has no bearing on whether or not you’re a LeBron homer.  I’d suspect 90% of people born after 1990 are LeBron homers.  Not that I’m putting you into that camp either.  I guess agree to disagree because my stance is two fold: 1) no one at the age of 35 that I’m aware of has returned from injury and posted top 10 value the previous year; 2) His very nature, punt FT/To caps his upside.  Historically, his freakish stats have been enough to overcome this disadvantage but I’m skeptical if he can do that this year.  I’m not going to entertain notions of him being motivated bc to me that’s an egocentric argument.  Everyone wants to win and one can’t measure how badly a player wants to win, there is no metric for that.  And if you want to go that route then Conley, Mitchell, Stifle etc are so ******** motivated to win bc they’ve never won before.  It’s not measurable. FWIW I almost drafted LeBron 8th in a $200 buy in H2H league but drafted Beal instead.  I don’t like either of those picks which highlights the difficult picking past 5 this year.  If anyone wants to pick LeBron there, may as well, have to pick someone.

This injury wasn't an ACL or an achilles. He tweaked a groin, missed like 5 weeks/17 games, and his team fell apart and was a complete trainwreck. In fairness, shouldn't you be asking the question what 35 year old has posted top 10 value?

In general, Lebron's value isn't captured in the ranking because he is really quite poor in 2 categories. 8-cat he is different. H2H he is different. The blanket statement of value should not be applied to Lebron. 

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I think his FG% will  not improve this year.   Lakers roster does not  have guys (other than Green) that can make 3s at high % and I have my doubts about Lakers  PG and C rotations.  LeBron at this stage of his career cannot defend any decent guards, he will need to move up to guard SF/PF/C

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11 hours ago, Gile Pile said:

What counts as " near 60% from the field" and what makes you think his FG% will go up? 

His FG% was higher than 56% only 2  seasons, both with Miami which had (arguably) better team than Lakers this season

60% may be a stretch but predict a career high in fg% with a drop in points. High 50s I'd bet on, very possibly getting to 60% with some blowout performances getting him there overall against weak teams. His floor for fg% will be very high on such a good team and his ceiling for fg% will be insane... I wouldn't put past him a bunch of 80+% fg games against teams like the suns going 12/13 and such with the attention AD will need to have. 

Lebrons basketball IQ is also off the charts nowadays and I think instead of taking bad shots and wasting energy, he is just gonna throw it to AD or Boogie when unsure, maybe not even try unless he's got an easy (for him) basket. His laziness could help his fg% tremendously as he's never had a big to just lazily toss it too who can score easily when in trouble (Bosh is not even a tiny bit close to AD). Lebron is getting wiser every year and his numbers have been relatively consistent because his mental game has increased with each year he ages. You put lebrons current brain into lebrons prime body, he's better than prime Jordan.

You see how much hop in his step hes had the last few years? It hasn't been great for his standards... he is not leaping through the stands and seems kind of sluggish. But he still manages 27 per game because a bulldozing tank can't be stopped without fouling. A dwade or Kobe type can be stopped with age, a lebron hell no. 

Dwade and Bosh were great and all but they didn't compliment lebrons game the way AD can. Actuslly there isn't a single other player alive more compatible for lebron than AD. I think AD goes bonkers and lebron being potentially the 2nd option (at least during the season or first 3 quarters of games) is probable which is going to leave him with lots of easier shots. I'm not sure how lebron being 2nd option won't lead to a higher fg%, just seems inevitable. This may seem like a bold prediction but the runner up GOAT is no joke and with his mental capacity, may be in his prime right now. 

Look at Tom Brady or Roger Federer. They're 2 of the athletically smartest people in history, and are still dominating while being much older than lebron. A good brain goes a long way, although I think lebron is pretty dumb off the court. 

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17 hours ago, Gile Pile said:

I think his FG% will  not improve this year.   Lakers roster does not  have guys (other than Green) that can make 3s at high % and I have my doubts about Lakers  PG and C rotations.  LeBron at this stage of his career cannot defend any decent guards, he will need to move up to guard SF/PF/C

You better check our "guys that can't make 3s at a high %". You are way off. AD was 38% catch n shoot 3s, Dudley career 40%, Daniels also 40, Cook 42% 

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56 minutes ago, ROTY said:

You better check our "guys that can't make 3s at a high %". You are way off. AD was 38% catch n shoot 3s, Dudley career 40%, Daniels also 40, Cook 42% 

Other than  AD, those guys are end-of-bench players good for max 17 min a game. And good luck making deep playoff run if those players are playing more than that

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17 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

Other than  AD, those guys are end-of-bench players good for max 17 min a game. And good luck making deep playoff run if those players are playing more than that

I mean I get what you're saying but you just saw guys like FVV on your Toronto team that knocked down everything in the playoffs. Guys can come out of nowhere and have good seasons, especially when all you're being asked to do is stand on the corner and hit 3s, many of which could be wide open. I'm not saying that is a great strategy banking on lesser known guys to have great seasons, but we literally just saw it happen. The Lakers signed many 3PT shooters in hopes that a few of them connect and they can run them with LBJ, AD, Boogie, Kuz during the playoffs.

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13 hours ago, johnval1362 said:

60% may be a stretch but predict a career high in fg% with a drop in points. High 50s I'd bet on, very possibly getting to 60% with some blowout performances getting him there overall against weak teams. His floor for fg% will be very high on such a good team and his ceiling for fg% will be insane... I wouldn't put past him a bunch of 80+% fg games against teams like the suns going 12/13 and such with the attention AD will need to have. 

Lebrons basketball IQ is also off the charts nowadays and I think instead of taking bad shots and wasting energy, he is just gonna throw it to AD or Boogie when unsure, maybe not even try unless he's got an easy (for him) basket. His laziness could help his fg% tremendously as he's never had a big to just lazily toss it too who can score easily when in trouble (Bosh is not even a tiny bit close to AD). Lebron is getting wiser every year and his numbers have been relatively consistent because his mental game has increased with each year he ages. You put lebrons current brain into lebrons prime body, he's better than prime Jordan.

You see how much hop in his step hes had the last few years? It hasn't been great for his standards... he is not leaping through the stands and seems kind of sluggish. But he still manages 27 per game because a bulldozing tank can't be stopped without fouling. A dwade or Kobe type can be stopped with age, a lebron hell no.  

Dwade and Bosh were great and all but they didn't compliment lebrons game the way AD can. Actuslly there isn't a single other player alive more compatible for lebron than AD. I think AD goes bonkers and lebron being potentially the 2nd option (at least during the season or first 3 quarters of games) is probable which is going to leave him with lots of easier shots. I'm not sure how lebron being 2nd option won't lead to a higher fg%, just seems inevitable. This may seem like a bold prediction but the runner up GOAT is no joke and with his mental capacity, may be in his prime right now. 

Look at Tom Brady or Roger Federer. They're 2 of the athletically smartest people in history, and are still dominating while being much older than lebron. A good brain goes a long way, although I think lebron is pretty dumb off the court. 

" A dwade or Kobe type can be stopped with age, a lebron hell no.  " ... You lost me after this

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1 minute ago, Gile Pile said:

" A dwade or Kobe type can be stopped with age, a lebron hell no.  " ... You lost me after this

 Not to mention tennis is a non-contact skill sport and QB is a skill position.  I’m ok with saying LeBron can play basketball to 40 if it’s admitted that basketball is more similar to golf or tennis.  But the same people who think LeBron will play until he’s eligible for social security are the same people who obsessively watch muscle watch.  The two beliefs are completely contradictory. 

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5 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

" A dwade or Kobe type can be stopped with age, a lebron hell no.  " ... You lost me after this

Uhhh... numbers don't lie bud. Lebrons avg 27 a game his entire career and still is. Dwade avg 30 one season then dropped to 19 or 20 a couple seasons later for the last 5 years or so of his career. Kobe was never as good as he was when he was younger, just looks at the stats. Lebron has seen no stat changes with age while Kobe and dwade showed clear decline. Case closed. Some player types age better than others. You don't get it, its okay.  

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6 minutes ago, johnval1362 said:

Uhhh... numbers don't lie bud. Lebrons avg 27 a game his entire career and still is. Dwade avg 30 one season then dropped to 19 or 20 a couple seasons later for the last 5 years or so of his career. Kobe was never as good as he was when he was younger, just looks at the stats. Lebron has seen no stat changes with age while Kobe and dwade showed clear decline. Case closed. Some player types age better than others. You don't get it, its okay.  

 

I see the point you're trying to make, but you've framed it incorrectly.  Of course Lebron will be stopped with age.  Whether it's this season or the next, or the one after that, his stats are going to decline, because as they say, father time is undefeated.  But you are correct that his sustained production is nearly unmatched (except by maybe Kareem? this could easily be checked on BBreference).

60% FG would be an absolute miracle.  LeBron is a competent (sometimes streaky) shooter, but he's not that good at it, and he likes to shoot jumpers quite often. Those bulldozing drives are tiring.  Let's come back down to earth.

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55 minutes ago, johnval1362 said:

Uhhh... numbers don't lie bud. Lebrons avg 27 a game his entire career and still is. Dwade avg 30 one season then dropped to 19 or 20 a couple seasons later for the last 5 years or so of his career. Kobe was never as good as he was when he was younger, just looks at the stats. Lebron has seen no stat changes with age while Kobe and dwade showed clear decline. Case closed. Some player types age better than others. You don't get it, its okay.  

nobody is arguing that LBJ isn't a good player (he is).  My point is that LBJ, like everyone else, will be stopped with age. Period.

How long  will LBJ  produce at high level remains to be seen. 

Next season  I expect his fg%, pts and reb to go down (playing more on perimeter) with increase in ast and steals.

Also I am expecting some  drama from the locker room, considering that  Lakers have a coach that wasn't 1st or 2nd option, interesting front office, super high expectations (title or bust)  and decent collection of high maintenance characters on the roster

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Code of Hammurabi said:

What do you mean again? When did he tear his ACL the first time? 

my bad,  this is the first time. Still sucks, Boogie will never be same player again

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2 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

 Not to mention tennis is a non-contact skill sport and QB is a skill position.  I’m ok with saying LeBron can play basketball to 40 if it’s admitted that basketball is more similar to golf or tennis.  But the same people who think LeBron will play until he’s eligible for social security are the same people who obsessively watch muscle watch.  The two beliefs are completely contradictory. 

I'm mentioning those sports referring to how mental ability can outlast physical decline. Brady and Federer are both athletic geniuses, lebrons pretty damn smart on the court too. His basketball IQ combined with his bulldozing and surprisingly good jump shot are going to give him years above most players, and will compensate for his age for at least another few years. Basketball is a skill sport too... 

Of course lebron cant play til hes 75 but I think he remains a top 10 player even when he is 40, maybe even top 5. Father time for him is nowhere near the same father time as Kobe and dwade. He is of course eventually going to fall off, its just years too soon still and I wouldn't put past this being the best season of his career due to knowledge and team hes now on. Under estimsting the power of the human brain. That's why Carmelo was bad even when he was prime (maybe had a few good seasons to his 10+ bad ones). Melo is dumb as hell. Lebron is practically a coach. He's like rondo who can still get 20 assists a game. Rondo is still around because of his brain, not ability. 

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4 minutes ago, johnval1362 said:

Of course lebron cant play til hes 75 but I think he remains a top 10 player even when he is 40, maybe even top 5.

You lost me again after this...   He is not top 6 now (Harden, Giannis, Curry,  Durant,  Kawhi, AD),  if you add Embiid, Jokic, Lillard, PG one can argue that LBJ is not event top 10. 

Add improvement from young guys (Zion, KAT, Tatum, Ayton, Booker...)  LBJ will be lucky if he cracks top 20 in 5 years

Are you suggesting that LBJ will improve as basketball player with age?

 

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1 hour ago, Gile Pile said:

You lost me again after this...   He is not top 6 now (Harden, Giannis, Curry,  Durant,  Kawhi, AD),  if you add Embiid, Jokic, Lillard, PG one can argue that LBJ is not event top 10. 

Add improvement from young guys (Zion, KAT, Tatum, Ayton, Booker...)  LBJ will be lucky if he cracks top 20 in 5 years

Are you suggesting that LBJ will improve as basketball player with age?

 

I'm talking real life, not fantasy. Hes still the best player alive. I'm saying that he may be in his prime now because his mental abilities are offsetting his physical decline. 

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9 minutes ago, johnval1362 said:

I'm talking real life, not fantasy. Hes still the best player alive. I'm saying that he may be in his prime now because his mental abilities are offsetting his physical decline. 

I was talking real life too

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5 minutes ago, johnval1362 said:

Oh dear god...  

Still waiting  for answer: Are you suggesting that LBJ will improve as basketball player with age?

And you honestly think that LBJ is the best  player alive as of Aug 15, 2019?

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6 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

And you honestly think that LBJ is the best  player alive as of Aug 15, 2019?

 

I will add some fuel to the fire.. this depends on your definition of best player alive.  If the definition is "the one player you want on your team in an NBA playoff game that you need to win" then I still think he is the best player alive.  But by most definitions, he's probably been passed up by KD, Kawhi and maybe Giannis. 

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