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Teams + Position Groups on your DND list


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What teams are you writing off complete position groups for because they seem like total headaches?  Teams who you wouldn't take anyone from the roster until the teens in your draft and that is a random dart throw.  Or, someone you are simply taking because you have to fill up your roster which could be any number of QBs for example.

 

QB

Dolphins

Jets

Ravens

Bengals

Jaguars

Titans

Broncos

Giants

Redskins

Cardinals

 

RB

Patriots

Bills

Dolphins

Raiders

Eagles

Redskins

Packers

49ers

Seahawks

 

WR

Bills

Dolphins

Ravens

Bengals

Jaguars

Titans

Cowboys

Eagles

Redskins

Bears

Panthers

Cardinals

Seahawks

 

TE

Bills

Dolphins

Patriots

Ravens

Texans

Jaguars

Titans

Broncos

Raiders

Cowboys

Lions

Packers

Cardinals

Seahawks

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11 hours ago, Sternes said:

What teams are you writing off complete position groups for because they seem like total headaches?  Teams who you wouldn't take anyone from the roster until the teens in your draft and that is a random dart throw.  Or, someone you are simply taking because you have to fill up your roster which could be any number of QBs for example.

I generally don't have specific DNDs, just price ranges where they become interesting. I would prefer not to get saddled with a Tampa RB, but if you can get Barber in the 10th round, then that is suddenly value.

Obviously it also depends on league and bench size. In a 10 team/15 player league you're probably not going to bother with Marquise Goodwin or Marquise Brown or Marquez Valdes-Scantling unless you're a fan (and unless you have your spell-checker turned off) but in a 14x18 league, they're suddenly interesting.

Is that a boring answer?

Even in Miami and Washington (and I think they're generally terrible) I see some options. I'll take Ballage. I'll get me some Guice, at the right price. Sure, I'll take them with my nose firmly clenched shut, but beggars can't be choosers, sometimes.

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As much as I love the talent of both kerryon and Galloday I am staying away from that Detroit offense after having both last year and dealing with the frustration of having to rely on Stafford.

 

Another one is Tennessee. Corey Davis has all the talent in the world but Mariota stinks so want no part of that. Nor Henry who needs volume to wear down a defense. Don’t see that happening with this team trailing most of the time. 

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4 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I generally don't have specific DNDs, just price ranges where they become interesting. I would prefer not to get saddled with a Tampa RB, but if you can get Barber in the 10th round, then that is suddenly value.

Obviously it also depends on league and bench size. In a 10 team/15 player league you're probably not going to bother with Marquise Goodwin or Marquise Brown or Marquez Valdes-Scantling unless you're a fan (and unless you have your spell-checker turned off) but in a 14x18 league, they're suddenly interesting.

Is that a boring answer?

Even in Miami and Washington (and I think they're generally terrible) I see some options. I'll take Ballage. I'll get me some Guice, at the right price. Sure, I'll take them with my nose firmly clenched shut, but beggars can't be choosers, sometimes.

Exactly. As long as you don't have to rely on these guys off the bat, you're fine. It's not hard to see some of these talented younger guys finding a path to fantasy relevance despite their ugly situations. 

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7 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I generally don't have specific DNDs, just price ranges where they become interesting. I would prefer not to get saddled with a Tampa RB, but if you can get Barber in the 10th round, then that is suddenly value.

Obviously it also depends on league and bench size. In a 10 team/15 player league you're probably not going to bother with Marquise Goodwin or Marquise Brown or Marquez Valdes-Scantling unless you're a fan (and unless you have your spell-checker turned off) but in a 14x18 league, they're suddenly interesting.

Is that a boring answer?

Even in Miami and Washington (and I think they're generally terrible) I see some options. I'll take Ballage. I'll get me some Guice, at the right price. Sure, I'll take them with my nose firmly clenched shut, but beggars can't be choosers, sometimes.

 

Agreed.  OPer must be in a 6 team league if he can "DND" half the teams in the NFL.  

There's a big difference between DO NOT DRAFT and "I probably won't draft him because he'll go for a more expensive price than I want to pay".  For instance, the DND list in the OP lists any Panthers WR?  Does that mean you wouldn't take DJ Moore or Samuel in the 15th round if they were still there?  It's highly unlikely I will own any shares of Moore because I don't like the value he presents in the 5th round, but if he was sitting there in the 7th round I'm surely going to snap him up.  

The closest thing I have to DND players are guys like Luck or AJG with current injuries and vague timelines.  But even those guys have upside if they fall far enough.  Oh and maybe Kareem Hunt sitting on your bench for half the season suspended would be another DND.  

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14 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

Agreed.  OPer must be in a 6 team league if he can "DND" half the teams in the NFL.  

There's a big difference between DO NOT DRAFT and "I probably won't draft him because he'll go for a more expensive price than I want to pay".  For instance, the DND list in the OP lists any Panthers WR?  Does that mean you wouldn't take DJ Moore or Samuel in the 15th round if they were still there?  It's highly unlikely I will own any shares of Moore because I don't like the value he presents in the 5th round, but if he was sitting there in the 7th round I'm surely going to snap him up.  

The closest thing I have to DND players are guys like Luck or AJG with current injuries and vague timelines.  But even those guys have upside if they fall far enough.  Oh and maybe Kareem Hunt sitting on your bench for half the season suspended would be another DND.  

 

What a marvelous example you put up there.  If you read my post, that is something I wrote in the second sentence.

 

Teams who you wouldn't take anyone from the roster until the teens in your draft and that is a random dart throw.  Or, someone you are simply taking because you have to fill up your roster which could be any number of QBs for example.

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7 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I generally don't have specific DNDs, just price ranges where they become interesting. I would prefer not to get saddled with a Tampa RB, but if you can get Barber in the 10th round, then that is suddenly value.

Obviously it also depends on league and bench size. In a 10 team/15 player league you're probably not going to bother with Marquise Goodwin or Marquise Brown or Marquez Valdes-Scantling unless you're a fan (and unless you have your spell-checker turned off) but in a 14x18 league, they're suddenly interesting.

Is that a boring answer?

Even in Miami and Washington (and I think they're generally terrible) I see some options. I'll take Ballage. I'll get me some Guice, at the right price. Sure, I'll take them with my nose firmly clenched shut, but beggars can't be choosers, sometimes.

 

Isn't that supporting my list?  Tampa isn't on my list at RB, but the Dolphins and Redskins are.  I would rather have Barber then any back on the Dolphins or Redskins as things stand as of right now.

As for league size, I had 12 team leagues in mind with 7 bench spots.

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2 minutes ago, Sternes said:

 

What a marvelous example you put up there.  If you read my post, that is something I wrote in the second sentence.

 

Teams who you wouldn't take anyone from the roster until the teens in your draft and that is a random dart throw.  Or, someone you are simply taking because you have to fill up your roster which could be any number of QBs for example.

 

OK, let's make the example more realistic, then.  DJ Moore's ADP right now is pick 5.09.  You're picking at 7.10 and he's still there, you're saying you are so opposed to taking a Panthers WR that you continue to pass on him?  Or Pats RB's - you're not going to grab up Michel in the 7th round if he's still there?  Waiting until the teens for any players from those teams seems a bit hyperbolic.

Maybe I'm taking this thread and "DND" too literally.  But realistically there are going to lots of examples of players whose value you don't agree on, but to say "I see all players on this team value-less until my last picks" doesn't make sense to me.

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20 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

OK, let's make the example more realistic, then.  DJ Moore's ADP right now is pick 5.09.  You're picking at 7.10 and he's still there, you're saying you are so opposed to taking a Panthers WR that you continue to pass on him?  Or Pats RB's - you're not going to grab up Michel in the 7th round if he's still there?  Waiting until the teens for any players from those teams seems a bit hyperbolic.

Maybe I'm taking this thread and "DND" too literally.  But realistically there are going to lots of examples of players whose value you don't agree on, but to say "I see all players on this team value-less until my last picks" doesn't make sense to me.

 

That is correct. I want nothing to DJ Moore. I think Curtis Samuel is incredibly underrated.  They added speedsters over the top to stretch the field with Hogan and Smith.  Olsen is there. Cam is throwing the ball and they have CMC.  I have zero interest in anyone in that WR corp in the single digit rounds.

I have no interest in Michel either.  James White is there, Burkhead (though I don't think much of him as a threat but who knows) is there, they drafted Damien Harris in the 3rd round.  Oh, and Develin might vulture a few TD as well.

These team position groups all seem like unreliable headache situations where they aren't going to return value and each week you start them they do poorly, and when they do well on your bench.

You have two examples that you disagree with my assessment.  Take one list and tell me who you want from it.  Who do you want from the Bills, Dolphins, Bengals, Ravens, Jaguars, etc., at WR?   Even if you disagree with the two you listed, do you disagree with the entire list?  Sell me on some of these teams.  I know I put my opinions on some of these selections, I'd love to be convinced of the merit of some of these teams.

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8 minutes ago, Sternes said:

 

That is correct. I want nothing to DJ Moore. I think Curtis Samuel is incredibly underrated.  They added speedsters over the top to stretch the field with Hogan and Smith.  Olsen is there. Cam is throwing the ball and they have CMC.  I have zero interest in anyone in that WR corp in the single digit rounds.

I have no interest in Michel either.  James White is there, Burkhead (though I don't think much of him as a threat but who knows) is there, they drafted Damien Harris in the 3rd round.  Oh, and Develin might vulture a few TD as well.

These team position groups all seem like unreliable headache situations where they aren't going to return value and each week you start them they do poorly, and when they do well on your bench.

You have two examples that you disagree with my assessment.  Take one list and tell me who you want from it.  Who do you want from the Bills, Dolphins, Bengals, Ravens, Jaguars, etc., at WR?   Even if you disagree with the two you listed, do you disagree with the entire list?  Sell me on some of these teams.  I know I put my opinions on some of these selections, I'd love to be convinced of the merit of some of these teams.

In redraft not too many from the bolded teams, dynasty changes that for most of them.  (Singletary, Preston Williams, Justice Hill, etc.)

 

As for Michel; White, Burkhead (granted he played in only 8 games), and Develin were all on the team last year and Sony had a good year.  Not to mention, they lost Gronk, and Josh Gordon possibly.  Michel might rise to be too rich for my blood but if he's healthy I don't see how he doesn't at least replicate last year

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The Jets use to be on my DND but I am eyeing up the entire roster including Sam Darnold (possibly as a breakout QB1). 

Kenyan Drake is on my DND.  f that guy

Not really sure where I stand right now on DND and I have my first draft in a few days.  I got to get my s.h.i.t together

 

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2 hours ago, Sternes said:

You have two examples that you disagree with my assessment.  Take one list and tell me who you want from it.  Who do you want from the Bills, Dolphins, Bengals, Ravens, Jaguars, etc., at WR?   Even if you disagree with the two you listed, do you disagree with the entire list?  Sell me on some of these teams.  I know I put my opinions on some of these selections, I'd love to be convinced of the merit of some of these teams.

 

I guess I just disagree with the whole premise of putting a whole team on a DND list - like I said, there are plenty of players I don't like at their current ADP's, but it doesn't mean they don't provide value maybe a round or two or three later.  

That list of teams you just provided barely even have any players with ADP's in the single digit rounds.  What's your criteria here?  Nobody is taking a Bills WR early because John Brown is the highest as a 12th-13th rounder.  Their next highest WR is Zay Jones in the 17th.  Dolphins' highest ranked WR is in the 13th-14th round.  Ravens' highest WR is 14th round.  There are some names from some of those teams I wouldn't mind owning as deep league dart throws, like John Brown, Kenny Stills, Preston Williams, etc, but all of these WR's are already widely considered end of the draft type players.

Bengals WR's, I like Boyd this year around pick 60ish.  His numbers last year were quite good both with and without AJG on the field, and that was with big portions of the year with really bad QB's.  I'd take Ridley and Mike Williams over Boyd, but once you get into that Landry / Moore / A-Rob / Jeffery tier, I'll take Boyd over them any day.  

Jags I'll buy into Dede around pick 100, he had a strong season with Bortles, and camp reports seem to be very positive about his talent.  Foles has to be an upgrade on Bortles and likes his slot guys.  Plenty of value there.  

Cardinals WR's you listed as DND but I would take Kirk or Fitz pretty close to their current ADP's.  Both finished OK in fantasy last year with disgustingly bad QB play, fewest offensive plays ran, poor coaching, etc.  Air Raid could be a bust in the NFL, but if they run a lot more plays than they have in the past then these guys could be PPR gold, even if the efficiency is poor.  Kirk was a borderline WR3 the last half of the season last year in much worse circumstances, and his current ADP is WR30.  I could see with better QB play and a lot more targets / plays he could out-play that draft cost easily.

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7 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

 

I guess I just disagree with the whole premise of putting a whole team on a DND list - like I said, there are plenty of players I don't like at their current ADP's, but it doesn't mean they don't provide value maybe a round or two or three later.  

That list of teams you just provided barely even have any players with ADP's in the single digit rounds.  What's your criteria here?  Nobody is taking a Bills WR early because John Brown is the highest as a 12th-13th rounder.  Their next highest WR is Zay Jones in the 17th.  Dolphins' highest ranked WR is in the 13th-14th round.  Ravens' highest WR is 14th round.  There are some names from some of those teams I wouldn't mind owning as deep league dart throws, like John Brown, Kenny Stills, Preston Williams, etc, but all of these WR's are already widely considered end of the draft type players.

Bengals WR's, I like Boyd this year around pick 60ish.  His numbers last year were quite good both with and without AJG on the field, and that was with big portions of the year with really bad QB's.  I'd take Ridley and Mike Williams over Boyd, but once you get into that Landry / Moore / A-Rob / Jeffery tier, I'll take Boyd over them any day.  

Jags I'll buy into Dede around pick 100, he had a strong season with Bortles, and camp reports seem to be very positive about his talent.  Foles has to be an upgrade on Bortles and likes his slot guys.  Plenty of value there.  

Cardinals WR's you listed as DND but I would take Kirk or Fitz pretty close to their current ADP's.  Both finished OK in fantasy last year with disgustingly bad QB play, fewest offensive plays ran, poor coaching, etc.  Air Raid could be a bust in the NFL, but if they run a lot more plays than they have in the past then these guys could be PPR gold, even if the efficiency is poor.  Kirk was a borderline WR3 the last half of the season last year in much worse circumstances, and his current ADP is WR30.  I could see with better QB play and a lot more targets / plays he could out-play that draft cost easily.

 

Again, it is pretty simple. The team/player isn't worth the headache.

Cool for you liking Boyd. I don't.

Cool for you wanting to take Dede, let me know when you feel confident starting him.

Cool for you liking Kirk and Fitz, I want NOTHING to do with that situation.

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11 hours ago, Sternes said:

 

Again, it is pretty simple. The team/player isn't worth the headache.

Cool for you liking Boyd. I don't.

Cool for you wanting to take Dede, let me know when you feel confident starting him.

Cool for you liking Kirk and Fitz, I want NOTHING to do with that situation.

 

You asked me to give some more specific examples of players from your lists and reasoning and I did.  You reply with a bunch of "cool's" and just calling them all headaches, without really giving any reasoning or logic.  Dead end thread is a dead end.

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8 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

You asked me to give some more specific examples of players from your lists and reasoning and I did.  You reply with a bunch of "cool's" and just calling them all headaches, without really giving any reasoning or logic.  Dead end thread is a dead end.

 

I don't want any Bengals WR.  New offense, I'm not a fan of Dalton, team wants to lean on Mixon, and no AJ Green until the 2nd half, right when you will need points in the fantasy playoffs. Boyd has better numbers with Green in the lineup than without.

I don't want any Jaguars WR.  New offense, I'm not a fan of Foles, team wants to lean on Fournette, haven't had a WR go over a 1,000 yards since 2015, their entire WR corp is a bunch of interchangeable guys who don't impress (aside from Dede). 

I don't want any Cardinals WR.  New offense, I'm not a fan of Murray, team wants to lean on Johnson, Fitzgerald is the only trustworthy guy and he is 36 in 2 weeks, everyone else is a bunch of "hope they pan out guys".

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, ToO_BaD said:

@Sternes do you have any specific reasons you are fading Josh Jacobs?

 

Coach bias:

Gruden seems to favor veterans.  There are a lot of mouths to feed on that roster. It seems that Richard is entrenched as the 3rd down back. They brought back Martin and Gruden seems to love him.  Gruden also has a bizarre fetish for Washington.  Gruden is a terribly overrated offensive mind and I'm still not sure how he is gotten the title of a QB guru.  Gruden hasn't had a top 10 offense 2003.  He hasn't had a top 10 rushing attack since 2000. Gruden's rush offense rankings

 

Rush offense Attempts rank/Yardage rank/TD rank

1998 - 17th/16th/29th

1999 - 7th/3rd/4th

2000 - 3rd/1st/2nd

2001 -12th/24th/9th

2002 - 23rd/27th/31st

2003 -22nd/24th/30th

2004 -27th/29th/26th

2005 -15th/14th/14th

2006 - 28th/28th/31st

2007 - 11th/11th/7th

2008 - 11th/15th/19th

2018 - 23rd/25th/27th

 

Out of 12 seasons, he has finished in the top 10 twice.  He has been in the bottom 1/3 in 5 seasons. The other 5 seasons scattered between 11th and 17th. He also loves to pass the ball: In years of studying play callers' tendencies, we've never seen anyone lean on running backs as pass catchers as much as Gruden has. Practically a third of his quarterbacks' completions have gone to the position! For some context, 30.2 percent of the Panthers' receptions went to running backs this season, when Christian McCaffrey led the team in catches. And we're not talking about one or two years of massive outliers propping up that number – it's been real consistent. A rusher has caught at least 40 passes in eight of Gruden's 11 years.


Oakland also has a questionable offensive line that they have made changes to, but I'm not sure of what kind of results they will have.

 

Statistical bias:

Since 2000, there have been 40 rookie RB that have received over 200 carries their rookie year.  There have been 20 rookies who have gotten over 250 carries.   At a glance, all of those situations which allowed success were where the rookie was given the job from the start and not have to work his way up to the starter.  He would have to be remarkable efficient on a low volume of carries.  Fantasy points of the top rushers last season went from #1 Gurley 313.1 to #10 David Johnson 196.6.  There are only 19 rookie seasons since 2000 that would fit between those two numbers.  Two of those stand out as anomalies.  Kamara in 2017, (120 carries) due to the 8 rushing TDs to go with his ridiculous catching yardage and 5 receiving TD, and MJD in 2006, who had 166 carries, but averaged 5.67 YPC, while rushing for 13 (!!!!) TD.  He all had 426 receiving yards and 2 TD. The chances of him being a fantasy contributor are low in the crowded backfield and him being a rookie. With his ADP hovering in the 4-5 round range, HARD PASS on that.

 

Personal Bias

He is a rookie RB which will work against him in a crowded backfield. He also didn't have to pass protect much at Alabama which will limit his 3 down chances.  Alabama is a very successful program, but I find it harder to judge their player talent because they are better than their opponents at nearly every position.  Is that RB as good as he appears, or is that those 5 star recruits on the line that make him look good? With the rotation at RB they do, everyone is fresh and no one has to be leaned on.  He can be a workhorse but he never has had to be. He had 251 carries for his entire college career. He looks like a decent runner, I admittedly have seen very little film on him.  I watched a handful of Alabama games and often couldn't tell which back was in and lost track of who did what play.  That isn't me complaining, that is my crappy eyes not keeping up! Nothing screams to me elite talent from his measureables and he seems more of a mystery as to what kind of back he and what his actual potential is.  Even if is Barkley, he won't have the opportunity to be Barkley until half this season is gone or more likely, next year.

 

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1 hour ago, Sternes said:

 

I don't want any Bengals WR.  New offense, I'm not a fan of Dalton, team wants to lean on Mixon, and no AJ Green until the 2nd half, right when you will need points in the fantasy playoffs. Boyd has better numbers with Green in the lineup than without.

I don't want any Jaguars WR.  New offense, I'm not a fan of Foles, team wants to lean on Fournette, haven't had a WR go over a 1,000 yards since 2015, their entire WR corp is a bunch of interchangeable guys who don't impress (aside from Dede). 

I don't want any Cardinals WR.  New offense, I'm not a fan of Murray, team wants to lean on Johnson, Fitzgerald is the only trustworthy guy and he is 36 in 2 weeks, everyone else is a bunch of "hope they pan out guys".

 

Boyd was marginally better with AJG in the lineup, but it wasn't like he faded away without AJG - he was still putting up WR2 numbers.  The other part of this data that nobody seems to talk about is that AJG's absense from the lineup was almost perfectly mirrored by Dalton's injury.  So the data set of "Boyd without AJG" is also the data set of "Boyd with Jeff friggin' Driskoll as his QB".  Is it more reasonable to think that losing Dalton was a bigger contributor, or losing AJG opposite him?  I would say the fact that he was still a borderline WR2 with Jeff Driskoll and being covered by the opposition's best corners is commendable.

Jags haven't had a good fantasy WR since 2015, but that's also how long they've had Blake Bortles as their starting QB.  Maybe some correlation there too?  I don't think Foles is an elite QB, but he's a huge upgrade on Bortles.  The fact that the rest of the WR corps is interchangeable is a positive for Dede, less competition for targets.  Word from camp is he is looking good and has a good connection with Foles already.  He put up 700 yards last year after really only working his way into a starting role halfway through the year.  Being the go-to WR from Week 1 and having Foles, and a healthy o-line, I see a good year for him.  Plus he's being drafted as a WR4 essentially, so yeah, basically at that point you're looking at upside players and maybe a Flex plug-in.

Cards are going to the Air Raid offense and going to be making a ton of short passing plays, which will be PPR gold.  Christian Kirk was a 2nd round pick and put up 50 yards per game in literally the worst passing offense in the league last year, so I wouldn't really say he's a "hope he pans out" kinda guy.  Opinions on Murray are going to be varied, but he's a proven winner, athlete, and his skillset is tailor made for this offense.  New offense and CS is a positive because they were horrible last year.  And again, these guys are WR3/4 prices, it's not like you're spending your 1st rounder on them.  Plenty of upside here if the Air Raid actually works, but I guess it helps if you're a Kyler believer.  

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I know that this may surprise some folks, but I'm not excited about the Eagles WR's this year. I love Ertz and I think he will get his 160+ targets and dominate at TE again this year, but I'm not too optimistic about their WR corp as a whole. Alshon going in the 6th seems a bit rich. He wasn't getting any separation last year and looked like he lost a step. A lot of experts like the value that Jackson could bring being that he is being drafted in the 9th and 10th rounds, but he could be as volatile as ever this year.

When you sprinkle in Agholor, Goedert, and their young up and coming receivers like Whiteside and Hollins, I can definitely see this being a situation where stats are being spread out amongst wide receivers. 

The Eagles were only 18th in scoring last year and I would make the argument that the secondaries in the NFC East have improved. The Eagles haven't had a 1000 yard receiver since Jeremy Maclin and Chip Kelly.

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1 hour ago, Sternes said:

 

Coach bias:

Gruden seems to favor veterans.  There are a lot of mouths to feed on that roster. It seems that Richard is entrenched as the 3rd down back. They brought back Martin and Gruden seems to love him.  Gruden also has a bizarre fetish for Washington.  Gruden is a terribly overrated offensive mind and I'm still not sure how he is gotten the title of a QB guru.  Gruden hasn't had a top 10 offense 2003.  He hasn't had a top 10 rushing attack since 2000. Gruden's rush offense rankings

 

Rush offense Attempts rank/Yardage rank/TD rank

1998 - 17th/16th/29th

1999 - 7th/3rd/4th

2000 - 3rd/1st/2nd

2001 -12th/24th/9th

2002 - 23rd/27th/31st

2003 -22nd/24th/30th

2004 -27th/29th/26th

2005 -15th/14th/14th

2006 - 28th/28th/31st

2007 - 11th/11th/7th

2008 - 11th/15th/19th

2018 - 23rd/25th/27th

 

Out of 12 seasons, he has finished in the top 10 twice.  He has been in the bottom 1/3 in 5 seasons. The other 5 seasons scattered between 11th and 17th. He also loves to pass the ball: In years of studying play callers' tendencies, we've never seen anyone lean on running backs as pass catchers as much as Gruden has. Practically a third of his quarterbacks' completions have gone to the position! For some context, 30.2 percent of the Panthers' receptions went to running backs this season, when Christian McCaffrey led the team in catches. And we're not talking about one or two years of massive outliers propping up that number – it's been real consistent. A rusher has caught at least 40 passes in eight of Gruden's 11 years.


Oakland also has a questionable offensive line that they have made changes to, but I'm not sure of what kind of results they will have.

 

Statistical bias:

Since 2000, there have been 40 rookie RB that have received over 200 carries their rookie year.  There have been 20 rookies who have gotten over 250 carries.   At a glance, all of those situations which allowed success were where the rookie was given the job from the start and not have to work his way up to the starter.  He would have to be remarkable efficient on a low volume of carries.  Fantasy points of the top rushers last season went from #1 Gurley 313.1 to #10 David Johnson 196.6.  There are only 19 rookie seasons since 2000 that would fit between those two numbers.  Two of those stand out as anomalies.  Kamara in 2017, (120 carries) due to the 8 rushing TDs to go with his ridiculous catching yardage and 5 receiving TD, and MJD in 2006, who had 166 carries, but averaged 5.67 YPC, while rushing for 13 (!!!!) TD.  He all had 426 receiving yards and 2 TD. The chances of him being a fantasy contributor are low in the crowded backfield and him being a rookie. With his ADP hovering in the 4-5 round range, HARD PASS on that.

 

Personal Bias

He is a rookie RB which will work against him in a crowded backfield. He also didn't have to pass protect much at Alabama which will limit his 3 down chances.  Alabama is a very successful program, but I find it harder to judge their player talent because they are better than their opponents at nearly every position.  Is that RB as good as he appears, or is that those 5 star recruits on the line that make him look good? With the rotation at RB they do, everyone is fresh and no one has to be leaned on.  He can be a workhorse but he never has had to be. He had 251 carries for his entire college career. He looks like a decent runner, I admittedly have seen very little film on him.  I watched a handful of Alabama games and often couldn't tell which back was in and lost track of who did what play.  That isn't me complaining, that is my crappy eyes not keeping up! Nothing screams to me elite talent from his measureables and he seems more of a mystery as to what kind of back he and what his actual potential is.  Even if is Barkley, he won't have the opportunity to be Barkley until half this season is gone or more likely, next year.

 

Fair I guess.  But not really sure why you bring up top 10 RB numbers or the #1 fantasy back for a guy who you say you are avoiding in the rounds 4-5.    

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The Broncos don’t look particularly exciting. Sure, Lindsay but he’s almost going in the 3rd round in standard. Maybe if he drops to the 5th.

The Dolphins look like a dumpster fire. Again.

San Francisco doesn’t look great: RBBC, crappy WRs, QB never played a full season and Kittle has a really high ADP but unsure about his connection with JG. Maybe Kittle if he falls to me in the 4th (non ppr)

Jags - Fournett and that’s it

 

Bills - John Brown in the 10th or preferably later and that’s it.

Giants - Barkley and that’s it. Engram’s ADP is too high for me

Redskins - with Trent Williams gone this might be the worst team in the league. 

Bungles - Mixon and that’s it

Lions - Kenyon and Golloday are the only 2 I’d consider but their ADPs are way too high 

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