Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Considering Kelce over CMC- am I insane? please read why first!


Recommended Posts

I'm in a keeper league, 12 team PPR, 0.1 per carry, QB TD pass = 6

We start 3 WR, 2 RB and 1 flex. 

The keepers are round specific and here's who I am keeping: Kamara as my 8th rd pick, Golladay as my 9th, Aaron Jones as my 10th, and Edelman as my 6th. I'd venture to say I have the best group of keepers in my league.

I also have the 2nd overall pick. Many top players are being kept, but Barkley and McCaffrey are both available (and Zeke but I think I prefer the first two in PPR)

I've got two amazing values at RB with Kamara and Jones costing me so little. With that said, Kittle, Howard, Engram and Henry are all likely to be kept at TE. That leaves Kelce and Ertz as the only worthwhile TE's to draft in the early rounds, and I don't think Ertz will make it back to me in R2, given the guys being kept. Everyone talks about getting a stud RB because quality at that position is scarce, but I already have two very good options, and having Kelce would give me a weekly leg up on everyone in my league at a position where quality is even more scarce than at RB.

 

I could also try to target high upside TE's like McDonald or Andrews in later rounds, but there's no guarantee either will produce, and then I'll be left up a creek at TE. 

Option 1: take whoever is left among CMC/Barkley

Option 2: try to trade down to 4 or 5 (a bit of a gamble, but I'd also consider taking Zeke/Hopkins in this range) and grab Kelce here

Option 3: take Kelce at 2 and screw the rest because he's my guy. 

Thoughts?

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, habslive said:

having Kelce would give me a weekly leg up on everyone in my league at a position where quality is even more scarce than at RB.

having two top4 RBs will give you a double leg up on everyone in your league.

if you take kelce, who could realistically be your RB3 after all the keepers and nearly two full rounds?

Link to post
Share on other sites

I like getting CMC or Barkley, to go with your keepers. Especially in a ppr. But if you want Kelce, I would trade the pick & move a few spots down to grab Kelce & another player in the 1st rd. Have to think giving up the 2nd pick in the draft is worth 2 1st Rd picks. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, warpster said:

having two top4 RBs will give you a double leg up on everyone in your league.

if you take kelce, who could realistically be your RB3 after all the keepers and nearly two full rounds?

I'd be looking at likely Freeman, fournette, Jacobs in that range. Most other options are being kept. Answering this question just gave me my answer. I could grab cooks or maybe Thielen/woods at 2/3. Ertz here would be a dream. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm a big TE guy that usually ends up with a high end TE on my roster. This year, there's really only 3 guys worth taking early in the draft: Kelce, Kittle, and Ertz. Given your situation, I don't blame you for considering taking Kelce early.

However, I don't think you can pass on CMC/Barkley at #2. As much as there's a gap between Kelce and the other available TEs (McDonald, Andrews, Burton, etc.), there's probably a larger gap between CMC and whoever you could get in the 2nd round. Statistically speaking, last year the gap between Kelce and Burton/McDonald/Rudolph/Eifert/Reed in PPR was about 9 points per game. The gap between CMC and the guys around 50th amongst WR/RB (i.e. ballpark what would be available to you in the 2nd round) was about 11 points per game. Plus, if you miss the train on Kelce, Kittle, and Ertz, the next group of TEs can probably be taken much later than the 2nd round. So the difference between a 2nd round WR/RB and a WR/RB drafted around the same spot as the second tier TEs would also add to that gap.

Also, if you go with CMC at #2, there is still a chance that Ertz might be available at #14 (I'm guessing that's where you're drafting in the second round?). Barkley and CMC would go 1 and 2, you'd probably have Hopkins, Zeke, and Kelce go before Ertz, and then with the 4 TE keepers + Kelce being drafted there's 5 guys that won't be after another TE early on in the draft. There's also probably some other good players available because their keeper costs were too high or their situation (M. Gordon possibly available?) first round picks were used to keep elite players. So I don't think it's completely out of the question Ertz could possible slide to you in the 2nd round. If he does, you take him (even if you are a bit light at WR). If he doesn't, then you likely go after a WR for the next couple of rounds and then keep an eye on your TE and QB options.

I'm kind of in a similar situation where I've got the 1st and 9th overall picks in my keeper league where I'm waiting until the 9th pick to take Kittle/Ertz (Kelce likely being kept). If I don't get one of them, the guys I'm looking at are the guys being kept in your league, plus guys like McDonald, Burton, Cook, Graham, Olsen, Herndon, Reed, etc. I'll probably also keep an eye on who the Patriots end up using as well. And I'd probably roster a couple TEs in hopes one of them flourishes. Likely won't have a quality player like Kelce, Kittle, or Ertz, but still not hating the TE options this year.

Finally, if you do draft CMC and completely hate the TEs you have or how your draft worked out, you could probably approach the Kelce, Kittle, and Ertz owners and see if they'd be willing to part with one of them in a deal for CMC. No guarantee you'd be able to get a deal done, but usually if you're willing to give up the 2nd ranked fantasy player people are going to listen.

...Bottom line, I'd draft CMC and go from there. See how the rest of the draft goes, work the waiver wire, and after awhile if you're not happy with your roster try to make a trade.

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

You're overthinking this.  You take the RB that falls to you, get another WR, then draft a TE with upside like a McDonald or Andrews.  Then you can trade Jones for a higher-end TE if you want

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

If you can roll out Kamara, CMC and Jones on a weekly basis, you gotta do it. I love having a top TE and I've had Kelce the last 2 years, but you can't take him over CMC. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...