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How are you evaluating offensive lines?


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Situation is key, and for the running backs who will be Mixon or Cook (amongst others), how do you learn their OL situation? I've read in a couple of threads that in those two situations that their OLs are either good or improving. I have never really had an issue drafting good talent, but I wanted to better understand how some use this information to help.

Do you know from following the team? Are you reading scouting reports? Are there certain stats you're using?

I would like to learn how you all are determining who has good offensive lines so I can determine for myself if I agree.

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It’s an educated guess at this point since real games haven’t started. That being said the Bengals OL was pretty bad last year and they’ve lost a couple starters this year due to retirement or injury. Probably fair to project their OL will be among the worst this year. Doesn’t mean that inevitably leads to Mixon upside being capped but it’s something to consider. DJ ran behind terrible OL with bad QB play and still finished RB9 last year. That means if stars align the same way for Mixon he could be reduced to RB2 numbers for the year since DJ is IMHO more talented. 

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10 minutes ago, Semitar said:

 

In your opinion, what are some good metrics to use? 

People (some) bash it, but I have found the PFF grading system tends to correlate pretty well with high scoring line play and offensive skill positions fantasy success.

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33 minutes ago, Semitar said:

 

In your opinion, what are some good metrics to use? 

 

RB stuff rate (RB getting stuffed behind the LOS)

Sacks

Quarterback hits/pressures

PBWR (Pass Block Win Rates)

 

38 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

I think continuity is critical to offensive line success.

 

I would like to emphasize this point because in most cases, this is crucial. When you look at most of the top O-lines in the business, they have a strong nucleus that have been together. Obviously free agency and injuries may derail that, but for the most part, these groups like Dallas, NO, Steelers, Pats, Ravens are always residents at the top of the list because they have that nucleus and are able to plug and play minimally year over year. Then you have teams like Indy who came into 2018 with a relatively unknown O-line and now their first and second rounders are all starting pan out so that continuity should continue into 2019 which is why I like Mack so much.

Based on continuity, my sleeper O-line in 2019 is the Giants. They bring back the left side of their O-line for the 2nd year in the system which drastically improved in the 2nd half of last season and they add a veteran tackle and one of the best guards in the game on the right side. Their QB pressures and sacks went down in the 2nd half and PPG skyrocketed. They've invested nearly 37% of their cap to the O-Line. So, it's things like that, that you look for when trying to predict the next up and coming offensive lines.

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1 hour ago, jumper said:

It’s an educated guess at this point since real games haven’t started. That being said the Bengals OL was pretty bad last year and they’ve lost a couple starters this year due to retirement or injury. Probably fair to project their OL will be among the worst this year. Doesn’t mean that inevitably leads to Mixon upside being capped but it’s something to consider. DJ ran behind terrible OL with bad QB play and still finished RB9 last year. That means if stars align the same way for Mixon he could be reduced to RB2 numbers for the year since DJ is IMHO more talented. 

DJ was a top ten back because he played 16 games. I don't think people were happy with his average fantasy stats per game and certainly not happy with his 3.6 yards per carry. DJ went early in the first. I wouldn't take him early in the second based on those stats. I wouldn't touch DJ this year behind this horrific line.

I think Mixons upside is certainly capped with a beat up already bad line. If you put Mixon behind a great line on a good offense he would be top 5.

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1 minute ago, mongidig said:

DJ was a top ten back because he played 16 games. I don't think people were happy with his average fantasy stats per game and certainly not happy with his 3.6 yards per carry. DJ went early in the first. I wouldn't take him early in the second based on those stats. I wouldn't touch DJ this year behind this horrific line.

I think Mixons upside is certainly capped with a beat up already bad line. If you put Mixon behind a great line on a good offense he would be top 5.

That’s fair to say about DJ’s season last year, but in 2016 he was RB1 behind another terrible line... which is why everyone was so confident drafting him last year. They thought with his receiving ability he could overcome his bad line a second time. He didn’t.

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24 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

I would like to emphasize this point because in most cases, this is crucial. When you look at most of the top O-lines in the business, they have a strong nucleus that have been together. Obviously free agency and injuries may derail that, but for the most part, these groups like Dallas, NO, Steelers, Pats, Ravens are always residents at the top of the list because they have that nucleus and are able to plug and play minimally year over year. Then you have teams like Indy who came into 2018 with a relatively unknown O-line and now their first and second rounders are all starting pan out so that continuity should continue into 2019 which is why I like Mack so much.

Based on continuity, my sleeper O-line in 2019 is the Giants. They bring back the left side of their O-line for the 2nd year in the system which drastically improved in the 2nd half of last season and they add a veteran tackle and one of the best guards in the game on the right side. Their QB pressures and sacks went down in the 2nd half and PPG skyrocketed. They've invested nearly 37% of their cap to the O-Line. So, it's things like that, that you look for when trying to predict the next up and coming offensive lines.

Yep, it is also (as bolded) a huge plus to have continuity in the scheme/system itself too...all those (largely) successful lines/teams have had an offense in place for a very long time

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8 minutes ago, mongidig said:

DJ was a top ten back because he played 16 games. I don't think people were happy with his average fantasy stats per game and certainly not happy with his 3.6 yards per carry. DJ went early in the first. I wouldn't take him early in the second based on those stats. I wouldn't touch DJ this year behind this horrific line.

DJ struggled because of terrible scheme, terrible play-calling, and a terrible Quarterback.  All of those things have changed.

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Just now, RMJ_12 said:

DJ struggled because of terrible scheme, terrible play-calling, and a terrible Quarterback.  All of those things have changed.

True. He was greatly misused in the passing game. The offensive line was also one of the worst. 

I think he will be much better in the passing game this year. I still wouldn't touch him in the first round. 

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18 minutes ago, Fierylady said:

That’s fair to say about DJ’s season last year, but in 2016 he was RB1 behind another terrible line... which is why everyone was so confident drafting him last year. They thought with his receiving ability he could overcome his bad line a second time. He didn’t.

The offensive line was bad that year but had some talent.  The team also had talent on both sides of the ball in 2016 and proven coaching. The line this year is looking absolutely awful. The Cards also play against Donald twice and the niner's scary defensive front twice. They are probably gonna be playing from behind a lot so the run game may take a hit. 

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2 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

For running?  RB ave. yards before contact

 

For passing?  Percentage of hurries/QB hits/sacks yielded divided by number of pass plays.

This sounds like a good metric. I am not finding it on the nfl.com site though. Have you seen this reported somewhere?

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We should also remember that things can change drastically from one year to the next at OL. The Colts were a historically bad offensive line before last season, then they skipped right over average-good-great to become dominant. Two years ago the Rams had a meh line that made Gurley look like crap, then they turned it around instantly. You can point to some factors as to why this happens - new players, new coaches, new scheme, etc... - but that doesn’t always work either (the Lions have invested heavily on the o-line and changed coaches too and it has yet to really pan out). 

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Some of the worst rated lines block for some of the early round RBs and rookies.  Mixon, Cook, Jacobs, Bell, K & D Johnson all have lines that are generally rated in the bottom 3rd.  Does that factor into any of your drafting plans on those players? 

 

PFF

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-nfl-offensive-line-rankings-all-32-teams-units-entering-2019

 

FantasyPros

https://www.fantasypros.com/2019/07/offensive-line-rankings-and-fantasy-football-impact-2019/

 

NumberFire

https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/26859/sannes-fantasy-football-offensive-line-rankings-for-2019

 

Rank Team Overall Pass Run
1 Indianapolis Colts Elite Elite Elite
2 New Orleans Saints Elite Elite Above Average
3 New England Patriots Elite Above Average Elite
4 Pittsburgh Steelers Above Average Elite Average
5 Philadelphia Eagles Above Average Above Average Average
6 Dallas Cowboys Above Average Average Elite
7 Atlanta Falcons Above Average Above Average Above Average
8 Green Bay Packers Above Average Average Elite
9 Kansas City Chiefs Above Average Above Average Average
10 Baltimore Ravens Above Average Above Average Above Average
11 New York Giants Average Above Average Average
12 Los Angeles Rams Average Average Above Average
13 Carolina Panthers Average Average Above Average
14 Tennessee Titans Average Average Average
15 Los Angeles Chargers Average Average Average
16 Chicago Bears Average Average Average
17 Jacksonville Jaguars Average Above Average Below Average
18 Cleveland Browns Average Average Average
19 Denver Broncos Average Average Above Average
20 San Francisco 49ers Average Average Above Average
21 Washington Average Above Average Below Average
22 Detroit Lions Average Average Average
23 Minnesota Vikings Average Average Average
24 Seattle Seahawks Average Below Average Above Average
25 Oakland Raiders Below Average Below Average Average
26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Below Average Average Liability
27 New York Jets Below Average Average Liability
28 Cincinnati Bengals Below Average Below Average Below Average
29 Buffalo Bills Below Average Below Average Below Average
30 Arizona Cardinals Below Average Below Average Below Average
31 Miami Dolphins Liability Below Average Below Average
32 Houston Texans Liability Liability Liability

 

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My stab for this year (based on last years rankings, new additions -FAs/draft picks- and overall scheme/continuity):

1) PHI

2) NO

3) PIT

4) NE

5) IND

6) KC

7) DAL

8 ) BAL

9) GB

10) CHI

RISERS on the way up- NYG, MIN, BUF, maybe ATL

FALLERS that might be in trouble- LAR, WAS, CLE

 

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On 8/23/2019 at 9:48 AM, Fierylady said:

That’s fair to say about DJ’s season last year, but in 2016 he was RB1 behind another terrible line... which is why everyone was so confident drafting him last year. They thought with his receiving ability he could overcome his bad line a second time. He didn’t.

He also had a great offensive head coach, a proven QB, and his line that year was way better than it was last

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1 hour ago, ST. STEVEN said:

My stab for this year (based on last years rankings, new additions -FAs/draft picks- and overall scheme/continuity):

1) PHI

2) NO

3) PIT

4) NE

5) IND

6) KC

7) DAL

8 ) BAL

9) GB

10) CHI

RISERS on the way up- NYG, MIN, BUF, maybe ATL

FALLERS that might be in trouble- LAR, WAS, CLE

 

Would you rank Ryan ahead of Mayfield because of that?

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9 hours ago, pbjfb said:

Would you rank Ryan ahead of Mayfield because of that?

 

Lil off topic, but yes I would. Better oline, Ridley improving, all but 3 games indoors, typical divisional shootouts

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