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27 minutes ago, Dead Money said:

David Montgomery.

 

I have drank the full cup of Kool-Aid. His college tape looks so good..he's gotta be the MAN this year right?!?!?!

 

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I love the college tape plus what I have seen in preseason. I feel like if I already have a solid RB1 that I can take a flier on him early third. I just fear picking him and then seeing Mike Davis starting the game week 1. You just never know with rookies. I guess it'a about making a leap of faith.

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Trey Quinn WR WSH as the last pick in all of my draft. Nobody talking about him. Primary slot receiver and Keenum is a slot slut, he is the QB who throws the most to the slot on average in the NFL

First post and i don't mean to derail but it doesn't seem the site will allow me to create a new topic. so sorta on topic... i do auctions only. so while there might be similarities between

1 hour ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

I like your choices but unfortunately I think most of the fantasy community likes them too.  This means their ADPs are climbing rapidly and they won't be "reaches" anymore.

Exactly.  At this point, 10 days before the season starts, there are no such things as sleepers.  Thus the disadvantage of the drafts closer to the start of the season, everybody is on an even playing field and players are going to go where they should be valued.

Cat is out of the bag with Chris Carson and Josh Jacobs.  Darwin Thompson?  Everyone knows about him now.  The time to get him was when he was 3rd string and nobody even knew his name.

Basically you are looking for double digit guys who aren't on the radar at all but may have a shot at real opportunity.

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39 minutes ago, Stratocasters said:

Your guys are pretty much my guys (exceptions being Prescott and Sanders).

Prescott has been near top ten every year. Last year when they got Cooper he was ranked 4th the rest of the way. I feel he has even better targets this year with Gallup, Witten, Cobb(sort of). I'm talking about maybe reaching a little if I wait super late to get QB.

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I reached a little for Lockett too. I've always thought he's ultra talented despite not being the prototypical WR size and this year is the best opportunity he's had, and he would appear to be finally healthy again. I expect a very strong season

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Good thread. I likey.

A few things though, I know that we cant put an exact number on what a "reach" is, but if you are taking either Jacobs or Montgomery in the 3rd, I would not consider that a reach. Many owners will be just as optimistic as the next person, so someone moving up a few slots or a pick to get their guy(s) isn't really a reach. Taking them in the 2nd, now that is a reach that is just too expensive. But again, who am I to tell what the hell is a reach or not lol.

The only exception to "my" above rule is Tyreek Hill. I can't see why people aren't seriously considering him #1 off the board. I wouldn't mind taking him #5 overall. I guess that's a big reach for some.

Also, I think if you set up good tiers, you wont have to reach as much.

 

Basically this.

14 minutes ago, CooL said:

Exactly.  At this point, 10 days before the season starts, there are no such things as sleepers.  Thus the disadvantage of the drafts closer to the start of the season, everybody is on an even playing field and players are going to go where they should be valued.

Cat is out of the bag with Chris Carson and Josh Jacobs.  Darwin Thompson?  Everyone knows about him now.  The time to get him was when he was 3rd string and nobody even knew his name.

Basically you are looking for double digit guys who aren't on the radar at all but may have a shot at real opportunity.

 

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26 minutes ago, CooL said:

Exactly.  At this point, 10 days before the season starts, there are no such things as sleepers.  Thus the disadvantage of the drafts closer to the start of the season, everybody is on an even playing field and players are going to go where they should be valued.

Cat is out of the bag with Chris Carson and Josh Jacobs.  Darwin Thompson?  Everyone knows about him now.  The time to get him was when he was 3rd string and nobody even knew his name.

Basically you are looking for double digit guys who aren't on the radar at all but may have a shot at real opportunity.

Sleeper has been retired as a reasonable fantasy word. I'm just looking at guy's you are excited about and would be disappointed not getting but you may not get them if you don't reach now.

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15 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

Good thread. I likey.

A few things though, I know that we cant put an exact number on what a "reach" is, but if you are taking either Jacobs or Montgomery in the 3rd, I would not consider that a reach. Many owners will be just as optimistic as the next person, so someone moving up a few slots or a pick to get their guy(s) isn't really a reach. Taking them in the 2nd, now that is a reach that is just too expensive. But again, who am I to tell what the hell is a reach or not lol.

The only exception to "my" above rule is Tyreek Hill. I can't see why people aren't seriously considering him #1 off the board. I wouldn't mind taking him #5 overall. I guess that's a big reach for some.

Also, I think if you set up good tiers, you wont have to reach as much.

 

Basically this.

 

The third round running backs may all be reaches but things really start to thin out after this round. Rounds 3-7 RB's have recently had a high bust rate. There is risk taking these guy's for sure.

I think Tyreek is getting better each year and is connected Mahomes in an Andy Reid coached offense. I'm probably gonna take him with my second pick. If your picking at 5 you probably don't get him in the second. pick 5 is too rich for me but I get it.

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1 hour ago, scheibler said:

 

How soon

 

Damien Williams:

2nd round. With Zeke and Gordon's holdout questions the only RBs ranked ahead of him on my board are Saquon, McCaffrey, and Kamara. 

If I had an early 1st round pick I'd grab one of the top guys and then double down with him in the 2nd in available. If I was drafting in the mid-to-late 1st I'd be very happy to draft a top-tier WR and then grab him in the 2nd. 

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10 minutes ago, Dalton Gang said:

I'm thinking of taking Tyreek at 9 in my 12 team this Thursday. Afraid he won't be there when it comes back in the 2nd. It will depend who falls to me at 9 but thinking I may not like anyone if Hopkins and Adams and all the top Rb's are gone.

 

if Zeke is still sitting ...

Bark/Kamara/CMC - then?

think you'd be fortunate to see 'Reek at 9 

let's say Nuk and Adams go after the three RBs - then who? perhaps Chubb, maybe Kelce?

that's still only seven picks in ... maybe JuJu or Thomas?

see, no way i let Hill fall to you if i'm at pick 6/7/8 ... no. freakin. way. 

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I'll leave the first 4 rounds of my 10-teamer with a TE. That probably means I reach for Kelce. I'll reach for Ertz in the late 3rd if he and Kittle are gone.

I might end up with a couple of backs in the 3rd and 4th. I don't really have any concerns about Carson, Jacobs, or Henry. I'm not worried about Penny. I don't think Oakland is as bad as, say, Arizona. And what's Henry's concern? Inconsistency and the calf? I'll take my chances. I may not have to reach for any of those guys, but I'd be happy to.

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22 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

if Zeke is still sitting ...

Bark/Kamara/CMC - then?

think you'd be fortunate to see 'Reek at 9 

let's say Nuk and Adams go after the three RBs - then who? perhaps Chubb, maybe Kelce?

that's still only seven picks in ... maybe JuJu or Thomas?

see, no way i let Hill fall to you if i'm at pick 6/7/8 ... no. freakin. way. 

Well thanks for raining on my parade. But now you got me worried you may be right. I am hoping the lemmings follow the ESPN rankings cause Tyreek isn't in the top 10. But now you confirmed if he is there, that I will take him.

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8 minutes ago, Dalton Gang said:

Well thanks for raining on my parade. But now you got me worried you may be right. I am hoping the lemmings follow the ESPN rankings cause Tyreek isn't in the top 10. But now you confirmed if he is there, that I will take him.

 

look, he very well could fall to you, and if lemmings do follow the adp rankings, all the better - consider it a gift at #9 overall. 

but best have contingency lined up - i say Chubb if he's there and 'Reek is gone ... think that kid is gonna tear the leeg a new one. 

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11 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

look, he very well could fall to you, and if lemmings do follow the adp rankings, all the better - consider it a gift at #9 overall. 

but best have contingency lined up - i say Chubb if he's there and 'Reek is gone ... think that kid is gonna tear the leeg a new one. 

 

Consider it a "GIFT" if Tyreek Hill is there at 9? Huh?

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4 minutes ago, bgar15 said:

 

Consider it a "GIFT" if Tyreek Hill is there at 9? Huh?

 

the most explosive talent in the leeg, on the best offense, unconscious QB, fatman offensive Merlin pulling the strings  ... yeah, i JUMP if he's there - 

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Just now, Hatfieldodger said:

I've seen him go 5th in a bunch of mocks. I think its crazy

 

with all due respect, this is loser mentality ...

see, if you're shut out of the big four then you gotta go BIG up top ... no one is BIGGER than 'Reek. 

plz keep letting him drop if you're in my leegs 👳‍♂️

 

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I LOVE going WR-WR with a late draft slot because the running backs in rounds 3,4,5 are so juicy.  (Fornette, Carson, Freeman, Jacobs, Montgomery, Damien).  Yes some of them get sniped in round 2 the closer we get to week 1 but you still have a great chance at getting 1-2 of those to pair with a combo like Juju + Beckham .  

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2 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I disagree with the process.

I will generally try not to reach. I have a list of targets, guys I like if they fall to me, and I will always try to pick the highest on that list. I will try to avoid reaching.

From your list, I like Carson and Montgomery, but I strongly disagree with some of the others. To each their own of course :)

 

I agree somewhat with this, especially in the first half of the draft. I’m looking for value, and as my roster rounds out, I may reach for some of my targets in the later rounds.

I spend a lot of time figuring out a couple avenues of strategy (which one I take is dependent on my first 2 picks), and then choosing/ranking my targets within the tiers. I go in with rounds written next to each target that I feel is good value for that player.

If I get to about round 7, and I feel like I am thin at WR, RB, etc... then maybe I reach for a player I have graded at an 8th round value, etc., if I feel the need to strengthen that position.

In short, I believe in drafting value early, and reaching for your targets late to fill out the roster.  I usually go into a draft with a list of several Round 8+ guys I really want, and make sure to come away with at least 2-3 of them.

 

My Round 8+ value targets this year (so far):

QB: Cam, Jameis, Lamar & Rivers

RB: Breida, Pollard, Darwin, Ito Smith, J. Jackson, J. Samuels

WR: M. Jones, Dede, C. Samuel, Gallup, John Brown, G. Allison

TE: Hooper

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1 hour ago, Dalton Gang said:

I'm thinking of taking Tyreek at 9 in my 12 team this Thursday. Afraid he won't be there when it comes back in the 2nd. It will depend who falls to me at 9 but thinking I may not like anyone if Hopkins and Adams and all the top Rb's are gone.

I pick 9 and would be happy with Thomas or Julio with my first pick and Tyreek with my second pick. If he goes I'll just take whatever RB wasn't picked between Conner, Chubb and Cook. I find it's a much easier draft If I go RB with my second pick instead of scrounging for my two starters. I do love Tyreek though.

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20 minutes ago, Mathew Berry said:

I LOVE going WR-WR with a late draft slot because the running backs in rounds 3,4,5 are so juicy.  (Fornette, Carson, Freeman, Jacobs, Montgomery, Damien).  Yes some of them get sniped in round 2 the closer we get to week 1 but you still have a great chance at getting 1-2 of those to pair with a combo like Juju + Beckham .  


I love the WR pair you end up with as well but haven't forbid your league goes RB heavy after that and a great deal of those guys listed aren't available, you're screwed

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2 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I disagree with the process.

I will generally try not to reach. I have a list of targets, guys I like if they fall to me, and I will always try to pick the highest on that list. I will try to avoid reaching.

 

 

The thing is...there's reaching, and there's REACHING.  It's one thing to grab Aaron Jones in the 2nd round because you like him and think he's in a good situation.

It's another to draft Kyler Murray in the 2nd round because you think he's the next big thing.

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13 minutes ago, Stratocasters said:

 

The thing is...there's reaching, and there's REACHING.  It's one thing to grab Aaron Jones in the 2nd round because you like him and think he's in a good situation.

It's another to draft Kyler Murray in the 2nd round because you think he's the next big thing.

Your first paragraph is realistic, your second one you’ll never see outside of a joke league with trolls.

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