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How do you view this tier and how do you rank them? Very tough tier to gauge and will likely be there in that 3rd/4th round territory in most drafts.

 

Especially relevant for those who pick towards the end of the draft and end up going WR-WR.

 

Chris Carson

Aaron Jones

Damian Williams

Leonard Fournette

Josh Jones

Derrick Henry

David Montgomery 

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Think I've finally got my bearings with this group, although I include Sony Michel as well: 1. LFournette - I don't think he belongs in the tier with these other guys.  Top 5 overall draft pick,

I agree its tough to gauge and I think a convincing argument could be made for any of these guys to be first and for some  drop them out of the group entirely.    Aaron Jones: I think he has

Whoa! mock drafts? Game changer.

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6 minutes ago, bgar15 said:

How do you view this tier and how do you rank them? Very tough tier to gauge and will likely be there in that 3rd/4th round territory in most drafts.

 

Chris Carson

Aaron Jones

Damian Williams

Leonard Fournette

Josh Jones

David Montgomery 

Jacobs has no competition for carries and his team should be good enough in all relevant respects for him to excel. Concerns about his ability to stay healthy are a bit ridiculous imo.

Carson and Williams both have some competition for touches. I doubt it amounts to much of anything.

Montgomery should be fine, but Nagy is an idiot, so that's a concern.

Aaron Jones has had trouble staying on the field. LaFleur likes committees. See below.

Jacksonville has arguably the worst offense in the league, Fournette gets injured every year, and DeFilippo is infatuated with the passing game. He'll end up on 0 of my teams this year.

 

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2 hours ago, bgar15 said:

How do you view this tier and how do you rank them? Very tough tier to gauge and will likely be there in that 3rd/4th round territory in most drafts.

 

Especially relevant for those who pick towards the end of the draft and end up going WR-WR.

 

Chris Carson

Aaron Jones

Damian Williams

Leonard Fournette

Josh Jones

Derrick Henry

David Montgomery 

 

1.  Wms
2.  Jones
3.  Carson
4.  Fournette
5.  M'g'y
6.  Jacobs 
7.  Henry

If you are just looking to avoid a big bust out, Williams should be in a good enough offense to be fine.  Fournette will get volume unless injured or acting like the headcase he is.  Jacobs should get big volume.

I've never been a fan of Jones, or the way GB uses its RBs.  Carson - who knows what Seattle will do with its RBs.  I rarely trust Carroll.  Montgomery should be fine but has Cohen there and you never know.  That offense could take a big step back.  Henry has huge bust risk given his atypical athletic profile for a RB these days and likely miniscule passing game usage; stacked boxes also possible with Mariota pulling the strings.

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I rank them in PPR:

1. Williams. Best offense and he's a big play threat aswell as involved in the passing game. May turn into rbbc though

2. Fournette. Contract year, only option on the team. Should catch a couple balls a game and is good on the GL

3. Carson. Run heavy team and coach speak is he'll be more involved catching the ball

4. Jones. Tough schedule and could be frustrating usage, but very talented

5. Jacobs. Should have a large workload. Who knows how much he'll catch the ball

6. Montgomery. Offense should regress and other rbs on the team could cut into his workload. Talented and involved catching the ball

7. Henry. Already dealing with calf issue. Horrible QB and could get gamescripted out if games. Not involved much catching

 

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Think I've finally got my bearings with this group, although I include Sony Michel as well:

1. LFournette - I don't think he belongs in the tier with these other guys.  Top 5 overall draft pick, undeniable talent, put together a Round 1 caliber season his rookie year, and the offense is built around him.  I think last year was an outlier and wouldn't be surprised if he's a first round pick next year.

Tier Break

2. DWilliams - that situation is bullet proof and it has looked like KC has wanted him to ascend into the RB1 role all offseason.  Still, the sample size scares me and thus I'm not willing to spend a late 2nd on him like a lot of people are.

3. SMichel - Round 1 draft pick in an incredibly friendly RB system and you can cuff him very easily with Damien Harris.

4. DFreeman - little competition in a high powered offense.  Worried that he is starting to decline and break down.

5. AJones - love the talent + situation but I think something is going on with him that we're not privy to, give that GB has continually refused to annoint him to the RB1 role.  Upside is huge in that offense if he emerges as the RB1.

6. CCarson - unsure about the talent + I don't think SEA is just going to keep Penny on ice all year.

7. JJacobs - still unclear what the usage is going to be and the offense is a step below all of those above.

Tier Break

8. DMontgomery - big upside if he's given a 3 down role but Cohen is a fantastic player in his own right and Mike Davis is decent as well.

Tier Break

9. DHenry - want no part of him.  He was a complete bust last year (and his entire career) up until the last few weeks and now he's been hurt essentially all of training camp

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2 hours ago, KennyWoo said:

 

1.  Wms
2.  Jones
3.  Carson
4.  Fournette
5.  M'g'y
6.  Jacobs 
7.  Henry

If you are just looking to avoid a big bust out, Williams should be in a good enough offense to be fine.  Fournette will get volume unless injured or acting like the headcase he is.  Jacobs should get big volume.

I've never been a fan of Jones, or the way GB uses its RBs.  Carson - who knows what Seattle will do with its RBs.  I rarely trust Carroll.  Montgomery should be fine but has Cohen there and you never know.  That offense could take a big step back.  Henry has huge bust risk given his atypical athletic profile for a RB these days and likely miniscule passing game usage; stacked boxes also possible with Mariota pulling the strings.

Evil grimus??? Is that you bro?

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9 hours ago, bgar15 said:

How do you view this tier and how do you rank them? Very tough tier to gauge and will likely be there in that 3rd/4th round territory in most drafts.

 

Especially relevant for those who pick towards the end of the draft and end up going WR-WR.

 

Chris Carson

Aaron Jones

Damian Williams

Leonard Fournette

Josh Jones

Derrick Henry

David Montgomery 

I assume you meant Josh Jacobs? :)

I'd like to add Kerryon to this tier btw. A bit later there's still guys like Lindsay and Cohen; probably not an RB1, but they are interesting RB2/Flex to have.

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12 hours ago, bgar15 said:

How do you view this tier and how do you rank them? Very tough tier to gauge and will likely be there in that 3rd/4th round territory in most drafts.

 

Especially relevant for those who pick towards the end of the draft and end up going WR-WR.

 

Chris Carson

Aaron Jones

Damian Williams

Leonard Fournette

Josh Jones

Derrick Henry

David Montgomery 

 

I agree its tough to gauge and I think a convincing argument could be made for any of these guys to be first and for some  drop them out of the group entirely. 

 

Aaron Jones: I think he has one of the higher upsides of the group given his talent and him looking very much like a RB1 when Packers finally seemed to trust him after dealing away Ty Mont. This is in a year where Rodgers didn't really look himself as he was hobbling around on one leg so with a healthy Rodgers and the offense fully humming the value is really there as it typically has for whomever happens to be Rodger's RB (and I think Jones is one of the more talented ones he's had). The major issue with him though is his knees as he's not been able to stay healthy when GB has attempted to try to lean on him as a true lead back. Luckily he doesn't need a ton of touches to put up strong numbers so finding the right balance mixing in the other backs might actually be a good thing if it keeps him healthy. I don't think Jamaal Williams is good (certainly not as Jones or even the new rookie) and personally expect Dexter Williams to overtake him for the #2 job at some point this season. 

 

Damian Williams: Also, one of the highest upsides of the group because of the offense he is and what he showed last season. There is an innate skepticism because he is a late bloomer as far as his career trajectory and the fact the average person probably didn't even really know who he was until Kareem Hunt was waived especially since Spencer Ware was kind of the initial favorite. I'm not sure he's as talented overall as Aaron Jones (particularly as a pure runner) but he's dangerous in space and in this offense he should get plenty of chances to showcase it as he did last year. I was initially fearful of Hyde turning him into a change of pace/3rd down back but looks like Hyde may not even be on the roster soon and Darwin Thompson is the one to be fearful of. Given Thompson's size he isn't likely to turn into a 3-down workhorse though so Damian Williams would likely still have some value and I think that risk is properly shown in his price. 

Leonard Fournette: A bit mercurial given his injury history (I think out injured like 7 games in his final collegiate season, 3 his rookie year and 7 +1 via suspension last year). If there is a silver lining its that his injuries last year were soft-tissue hamstring injuries and not directly associated with the often touted "chronic" ankle issues that plagued him in college. Not sure if it makes it better or worse but it wasn't like he had one major ankle injury that required surgery and held him out for weeks but niggling injuries where he was in and out of the squad week to week. Still I think his injury history is a bit overblown and when healthy his profiles as a clear 3 down workhorse in an offense that's largely geared around him giving him a high touch total. Lessening the risk (similar to last year with Yeldon who filled in for him and gave high end-RB2 numbers) Armstead looks like a similar styled player who might be able to step in and give RB2 numbers. Also, need to factor that Foles on the surface seems a better QB than Bortles was so his supporting offense might be better than it was in the past even though Bortles' ineptitude didn't directly prevent him from putting up good numbers as his volume made up for lack of efficiency.

Chris Carson: Not a sexy player but if you watch the Seahawks play he is critical to their success and at this time there seems no reason for them to go away with what worked last year. I view him as more of a high floor lower ceiling type guy in this group. Plenty of carries are there for him even with Penny getting more work thanks to Mike Davis' departure. Penny is probably more likely to see more of the receiving work and while not out of the question for Penny to jump him I think he clearly outperformed Penny last year from training camp to throughout the year (with the odds not really in his favor given Penny's draft stock) and even if Penny does I think there will be plenty of carries left in the backfield for Carson to still return value possibly even as a RB2. I think the big concern is that this guy runs a little too violently (which is fun to watch) which makes him seemingly prone to miss a game or two which does leave the door open for Penny too. 

Josh Jacobs:  He is an "unproven rookie" and carries a little more "unknown" risk because most are touting him as a 3 down workhorse despite him not serving this role in college. Looking at his tape he certainly looks capable of being a 3 down workhorse (Alabama RBs of course have a certain reputation for not being nearly as good of pros as they looked in college since their Alabama teams often have more talent especially relative to competition than some NFL teams) but he wasn't actually used as a 3 down workhorse at Alabama, Pats rookie RB Damien Harris was the starter and more productive back with Jacobs providing a complimentary yet more electric role that lead to him profiling as the better pro. Doug Martin threat is no longer there to threaten Jacobs' early down work but I think Jalen Richards could potentially still vulture some touches. Not that bad teams have prevented strong RB performances but Raiders don't profile as the best team especially with Antonio Brown's recent unhinged behavior. There does certainly appear to be a recency bias that is benefitting him given the recent slew of rookie RBs who have become RB1s right away (most notably Barkley last year) however, despite being the #1 RB in this class the class was extremely weak relative to the past few and IMO Jacobs isn't anywhere close to the caliber of guys like Barkley, Guice, Fournette, Zeke, Chubb, ect that have spoiled us in recent years.

 

Derrick Henry: Speaking of recency bias and Alabama RBs Henry is a physical specimen who was a monster down the stretch last year and I don't think anybody doubted he had that type of dominance in him the issue has largely been he has very inconsistently shown it. In fact he has very often been pathetically easy to go down and be tackled for his size. Maybe something clicked in Henry in those last few games and he'll continue it going into next season where his supporting cast can only get better than last year particularly at the QB position. One thing he doesn't do is receive passes so he is quite vulnerable to game script unlike a lot of the other RBs in this tier. 

David Montgomery: IMO nothing about him jumps off the page and like Jacobs I think he benefits from the recent success of previous RB classes and being one of the better backs in a weak RB class but Bears clearly believed in him as they traded up to get him even after signing Mike Davis. Despite having a 3 down skill set Tarik Cohen likely to continue to dominate the receiving work so Montgomery is "stuck" to the Jordan Howard role. Assuming he can hold off Mike Davis that role seems plenty to give him RB2 value and given Montgomery's skill set being a bit more versatile he could cut into Cohen's receiving work more than Howard did an be a high-end RB2. 

 

Personally, I would probably put the first 4 in their own tier and the last 3 (Jacobs, Henry and Montgomery) in a slightly lower tier. Kerryon Johnson (I view him similarly to Aaron Jones as a talented player who may see his workload limited due to injury concerns albeit in a fairly weaker offense lowering his upside), Devonta Freeman (significant injury risk but is in a very attractive offense and could reasonably put up RB1 numbers like he has not too long ago, although a few considerable knee injuries ago, if he can stay healthy), and Sony Michel (his knees really scare me but looked like a borderline RB1 last year once he got up to speed and was healthy, Damien Harris isn't a threat to take his job imo but can be a thorn in his side) I think deserve significant consideration to be part of this tier.

Prior to Luck's retirement I would've had Mack up with Jones and Williams at the top of this tier but I think it cuts his upside enough that he probably isn't suited for this tier especially given the uncertainty surround his passing game role. I think he is still one of the surer bets outside of these guys since he should see a fairly decent workload, the Colts o-line is very good and while not remotely close to Luck's level I think Brissett could be a solid enough starter to keep the offense moving (I don't think he is in the bottom 5 of worst starting QBs in the league). 

 

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36 minutes ago, kidsgotsoul said:

I avoid all of these guys. I'll take Carson if he drops enough, especially if Penny is on the outs. 

 

If you're avoiding all of these guys, I'm assuming you're grabbing a RB in the 1st?

Or are you more fond of the Phillip Lindsay, James White, Duke Johnson a couple rounds later?

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1 hour ago, bgar15 said:

 

If you're avoiding all of these guys, I'm assuming you're grabbing a RB in the 1st?

Or are you more fond of the Phillip Lindsay, James White, Duke Johnson a couple rounds later?

Yes - It's worked out that I've either had an early or late 1st round pick this year so I either take one of the no-brainer guys at the start or opt or someone like Conner or Cook at the end of the first (Cook is the guy I'm comfortable with reaching for by a few spots before the second). If Duke or Coleman are hanging around in that 6-7 range I may take one of them and then load up on high upside guys like Darwin, J. Hill, etc. Drake is another guy I keep an eye out for if he drops late. 

Obviously all subject to how the drafts shake out in real time but I'm generally comfortable with this approach.

 

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1 hour ago, kidsgotsoul said:

Yes - It's worked out that I've either had an early or late 1st round pick this year so I either take one of the no-brainer guys at the start or opt or someone like Conner or Cook at the end of the first (Cook is the guy I'm comfortable with reaching for by a few spots before the second). If Duke or Coleman are hanging around in that 6-7 range I may take one of them and then load up on high upside guys like Darwin, J. Hill, etc. Drake is another guy I keep an eye out for if he drops late. 

Obviously all subject to how the drafts shake out in real time but I'm generally comfortable with this approach.

 

For me, the only thing about this approach is while all these RBs have question marks, I like them better than the WRs that are being taken in the same range.  So in mocks, if I start with RB/WR or vice versa in the first 2 rounds, I find myself grabbing a 2nd RB in the 3rd and going WR in the 4th, then often TE in the 5th.  

I agree with you about the group of RBs in the 6th/7th, but then I have them as my 3rd instead of 2nd.

 

Who do you target in the 3rd if you’re avoiding the RBs?

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17 minutes ago, SkinsChargersFan said:

For me, the only thing about this approach is while all these RBs have question marks, I like them better than the WRs that are being taken in the same range.  So in mocks, if I start with RB/WR or vice versa in the first 2 rounds, I find myself grabbing a 2nd RB in the 3rd and going WR in the 4th, then often TE in the 5th.  

I agree with you about the group of RBs in the 6th/7th, but then I have them as my 3rd instead of 2nd.

 

Who do you target in the 3rd if you’re avoiding the RBs?

TE?

My plan, which I'm thinking of changing because no plan survives first contact, is to go with 3 RBs, TE, and QB in the first 5 rounds - then pound receivers the next 5.

I think this middle tier of RBs is good for that.  KJ, AJ, Mack, Montgomery, Mixon, Fournette, Henry, Ingram, DWill, Jacobs, and whoever I'm forgetting are all fairly indistinguishable to my mind

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