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Jonathan Isaac 2019-2020 Outlook


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2 hours ago, SirMixalot said:

But is the usage counted only for a player's time on court with specific 5-man lineups, or for a team's entire possession of the ball over the course of a game, regardless of whether they're on the court or not?

Case in point, in a full game, a team will only have 5 players on court at a time but go 12 players deep for the game... would you count a player's usage as the ratio of their ball usage over 5 or 12? Could that be why league average doesn't equal 20?

It is only on the court. I can think 2 possible reasons for variation from 20% to 19% (I saw 19.8% posted somewhere for the league average). They could both be wrong or both right or one right. I haven't looked it up. The terminology isn't official either.

1) The average is probably not weighted by playing time. An example with unrealistic numbers:

Five starters play 40 possessions each and "use" 9 of those possession each (assume they overlap with subs). This is 22.5% usage.

Five subs play 10 possession each and "use" 1 possession each. This is 10% usage.

Then the average usage is 16.25%, but this is possible since 9*5+1*5=50 possessions are "used" out of the 50 total possessions.

2) I don't know how the exact method, but it might be that things such as shot clock violations count as possessions where nobody's usage rate goes up.

 

Also, since this is the Jonathan Isaac thread, I think he is going to improve a lot and have a great year, but not enough to provide significant value for a top 50 or 60 pick.

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I think there's two main reasons for this. 1) Vooch is above and beyond the Magic's best player. Having him on the floor takes a lot of pressure off of everybody else. Both defensive pressure/att

I’m not discounting that, my argument is you can get a semblance of that a round, two rounds, or three rounds later with guys who have a safer floor, bigger roles, and their own upside. - Oubre i

14 hours ago, tdye said:

It is only on the court. I can think 2 possible reasons for variation from 20% to 19% (I saw 19.8% posted somewhere for the league average). They could both be wrong or both right or one right. I haven't looked it up. The terminology isn't official either.

1) The average is probably not weighted by playing time. An example with unrealistic numbers:

Five starters play 40 possessions each and "use" 9 of those possession each (assume they overlap with subs). This is 22.5% usage.

Five subs play 10 possession each and "use" 1 possession each. This is 10% usage.

Then the average usage is 16.25%, but this is possible since 9*5+1*5=50 possessions are "used" out of the 50 total possessions.

2) I don't know how the exact method, but it might be that things such as shot clock violations count as possessions where nobody's usage rate goes up.

 

Also, since this is the Jonathan Isaac thread, I think he is going to improve a lot and have a great year, but not enough to provide significant value for a top 50 or 60 pick.

 

Thanks @tdye @StifleTower2 for the clarifications. I've been thinking about usage all wrong up to this point!

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On 10/15/2019 at 2:56 PM, DZaak said:

I have Bryant and Isaac too. But 8 drafted in ESPN where the rankings are out of whack. 

 

I got Bryant at 63, and Isaac at 100. Yes.. 100! I'm happy as all hell because my surname is Isaac hahahaha. 

I play in points leagues. I know its preseason, but out of their 6 games, Aaron Gordon was better than Isaac ONCE by my leagues scoring setup. Yet, Air Gordon went 5th round, i got Isaac 10th round! Best kept secret in the league right now. Gordon still being overdrafted due to previous hype too

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On 10/19/2019 at 5:11 PM, Dominator83 said:

I play in points leagues. I know its preseason, but out of their 6 games, Aaron Gordon was better than Isaac ONCE by my leagues scoring setup. Yet, Air Gordon went 5th round, i got Isaac 10th round! Best kept secret in the league right now. Gordon still being overdrafted due to previous hype too


Isaac is a better player than AG in Fantasy and real life. Should be pretty clear by the end of the season,

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16 minutes ago, flat_eric said:


Isaac is a better player than AG in Fantasy and real life. Should be pretty clear by the end of the season,

It's an interesting complementary situation. Isaac allows the Magic to play Vuc and AG and get away with it. Both those guys can play on offense, and when their man beats them on D, there is Isaac to clean up the problem. Not to say Isaac doesn't make mistakes too, but just has the elastic-man hands to cover for mistakes.

This season, I'm struck by Isaac's ability to bring the ball up the court after getting a rebound, and leading the break. A light switch has hopefully turned on. He is physically dominant, not just a freak. 

 

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So I like Isaac a lot in real life. He's improved a lot since his rookie year, but everyone needs to keep in mind he really hasn't contributed that much in fantasy.

Last season he scored 9.6 a game on .429% shooting and he can't create his own shot. You're drafting a blocks specialist who makes the occasional 3 or finds a few layups throughout the game. Don't blow up in this thread if he doesn't go off because he probably isn't going to.

 

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5 minutes ago, greatestmetfan said:

So I like Isaac a lot in real life. He's improved a lot since his rookie year, but everyone needs to keep in mind he really hasn't contributed that much in fantasy.

Last season he scored 9.6 a game on .429% shooting and he can't create his own shot. You're drafting a blocks specialist who makes the occasional 3 or finds a few layups throughout the game. Don't blow up in this thread if he doesn't go off because he probably isn't going to.

 

Last 20 games of the season he was able to go for 10.9 points with 1.8 threes on .446%. Not the biggest difference but there's no reason to believe he won't improve on his numbers in general from last year. 

It's all about the value on where you draft him.. anywhere close to 100 or if you grab a low-blocks C early, block specialists who are not C become more valuable than represented in the box scores. Or say if you're punting FG, stocks guys like Isaac help prevent you from fully punting blocks as well at the later rounds of the draft.

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20 minutes ago, WhatIsThisWizardry said:

i just swapped him for eric bledsoe. i have high hopes for issac as a solid glue guy maybe a slightly poor mans otto porter. 

i needed the pg position help though so i had to pull the trigger.

Bledsoe is his price tag?? Am I undervaluing Isaac or overvaluing Bledsoe?

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12 minutes ago, ellejamil said:

Bledsoe is his price tag?? Am I undervaluing Isaac or overvaluing Bledsoe?

He got some value out of the trade...

Preseason wise, Bledsoe is probably in the 50-60 (55 Y! ADP) range and Isaac in the 60-70 (68 Y! ADP) range.

More about team fit as he's stated. 

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57 minutes ago, ellejamil said:

Bledsoe is his price tag?? Am I undervaluing Isaac or overvaluing Bledsoe?

yes on paper bledsoe is a clear winner since hes proven, but not to say issac cant suprass that. but stars have to align, he has to keep his stocks and improve offensively. he is just under him 60-70ish

I got some value, but yes its more for position help

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31 minutes ago, DZaak said:

Only took 3 shots today :( But the stocks and rebounds were nice.

Anyone concerned that he only got 25 mins?

Only one player played for more than 29 mins. Stay your hand, even if the scoring doesn't come, 1/1/1 is hard to find.

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3 hours ago, DZaak said:

Only took 3 shots today :( But the stocks and rebounds were nice.

Anyone concerned that he only got 25 mins?

 

Foul trouble, got yanked early in the third. He looked great, I'm guessing he would've ended up around 30 like the other starters otherwise

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45 minutes ago, halbounih said:

Yeah he needs to take more shots, he's too passive in that department

 

I only watched the first quarter of the game and like I had suspected before the season started - he still seems to be low in the pecking order on offense.  They don't really look for him and he is passive which makes for a bad combination. Depending upon where he was drafted, it is fine because the defensive stats are going to be there for sure and better than last year. I got him low enough to where it was worth it for me.

But unless they have some injuries, I don't think the offense is going to develop into more than 11 PPG.  Which is a shame because physically he looks more massive out there with the weight gain and growth in height, and has the physical tools that screams offensive nightmare.   

I was watching his preseason highlights a few days ago and he did look more aggressive.  So I do believe he could be a Giannis/Siakam type player if he had that temperament and the coach's backing to do so.  They just have too many veterans that want to score.  But we'll see.  Just one game so hopefully I am wrong and he will be given more of a chance on offense.

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6 minutes ago, Tekno Team 2000 said:

 

I only watched the first quarter of the game and like I had suspected before the season started - he still seems to be low in the pecking order on offense.  They don't really look for him and he is passive which makes for a bad combination. Depending upon where he was drafted, it is fine because the defensive stats are going to be there for sure and better than last year. I got him low enough to where it was worth it for me.

But unless they have some injuries, I don't think the offense is going to develop into more than 11 PPG.  Which is a shame because physically he looks more massive out there with the weight gain and growth in height, and has the physical tools that screams offensive nightmare.   

I was watching his preseason highlights a few days ago and he did look more aggressive.  So I do believe he could be a Giannis/Siakam type player if he had that temperament and the coach's backing to do so.  They just have too many veterans that want to score.  But we'll see.  Just one game so hopefully I am wrong and he will be given more of a chance on offense.

I think he can get to 12 pts / 7 boards / 2-3 assists / 1.5+ 3s / 1.3+ steals / 1.5+ blocks

That is a killer line and an amazing glue guy in category leagues.

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