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Markelle Fultz 2019-2020 Outlook


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I think the discussion should also focus on who are you holding onto over a guy like Fultz, especially if you’re in a league that is 14 or more.

 

Personally, I think Fultz can be a pretty serviceable player with better upside than a lot of other guys on the WW. As a comparison for context, I’m choosing him over guys like Ntilikina, DSJ, Dunn, Coby White, Rondo, Tyus Jones, Napier etc.

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So close to a double-double! Not that it matters, though, as he's still 6 minutes short of being remotely rosterable.

But ppl were trynna tell me that he’s not rosterable unless he gets 35 minutes ... fuk outta here 

Inching close to top 100 value, and in the right lineup, he already has that kind of value.  He is a valuable source of assists and has shown consistent improvement over the course of the season.

52 minutes ago, GJDHouse said:

 

Its clear that Fultz will never be (or at least won't be in the near future) the player that everyone thought he could be, but this isn't fair either.  He provides a different kind of a threat/weakness from a traditional PG, but with the Magic's team construction, he actually fits quite well.  Fournier, Isaac, Gordon, and Vucevic are all solid to above average shooters.  The fact that teams sluff off Fultz just makes it easier at times for him to get deep into the paint.  He is doing a pretty good job of not forcing the action, taking what the defense gives him, and providing good length and athleticism on defense.  He is still a 'baby deer' out there at times on defensive, but his length is already giving opponents some problems, and he should continue to improve on his fundamentals.

Some interesting offensive stats (comparing DJA and Fultz):

Off Rating:
- Fultz: 107.7
- DJA 98.4

Def Rating:
- Fultz: 103.4
- DJA: 100.4

NET Rating:
- Fultz: 4.2
- DJA: -2.0

True Shooting:
- Fultz: 55.5
- DJA: 51.4

 

When you mention that his best hope is Rondo, you aren't really looking at his current game.  You are assuming he is going to shoot a poor percentage from both the field and the line.  That simply hasn't been the case this year.  Sample size is 13 games, but you have to remember that he has only played 46 games TOTAL (33 before this year), so everything is a small sample size.  The biggest key for Fultz is his ability to knock down free throws.  He is proving that he can get into the lane, and if the defense knows that they can't foul you, then all of the sudden they have to play him more honestly.  

I don't think anyone is expecting Fultz to be an all-star anytime soon, but it would also be a mistake to dismiss a 21 year old former phenom, who is now starting, showing some improvement in key areas, and producing some interesting stats.  The key is going to be his free throw.  If he can hit close to 80% he will end up a top 100 - top 150 player in my opinion.  He won't win the league for anyone, but he can be a solid flex/bench guard for a team.  In deep leagues he should definitely be a player of interest.

This is a well-stated view. My only quibble is that to compare to DJA is not enough, because DJA is not a true starting-caliber PG either. My position is that in this modern NBA, a starting PG who can't shoot the 3 is a liability. Very few are left. Instead of Rondo, maybe Dejounte Murray might be a good comp. That would be a lovely comp, I'm sure.

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1 hour ago, hornrimmed_rambis said:

This is a well-stated view. My only quibble is that to compare to DJA is not enough, because DJA is not a true starting-caliber PG either. My position is that in this modern NBA, a starting PG who can't shoot the 3 is a liability. Very few are left. Instead of Rondo, maybe Dejounte Murray might be a good comp. That would be a lovely comp, I'm sure.

 

He is a liability at 3s, but unlike Ben Simmons, he will actually attempt them. He's shooting 2.2 a game, albeit at 0.5 makes per game (21%). He'll never be a reliable 3 point shooter, but if they're going to leave him open, that's good for us because he doesn't really hesitate when taking them. 

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AG and Vucevic being out is going to result in a lot more usage for other guys. I believe Fultz will be one of the guys to benefit. He is looking good on the court and getting better, he was also given the starting PG position within a month of playing. It’s risky but I think with those “main guys” out he will have more room to be creative which could result in a decent bump in his numbers

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3 minutes ago, NoahsArc said:

Season high in minutes and assists tonight. Fultz has a good opportunity to flourish with Vuc and Gordon out. Hard to find dimes like this on the wire! 

Any hope for them to become a regular occurrence now that he's crossed the Rubicon?

Edited by brickcitymamba
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15 minutes ago, brickcitymamba said:

Any hope for them to become a regular occurrence now that he's crossed the Rubicon?

I think so. The rotowire podcast was talking about this - the bigs on the floor right now are much more dependant on playmaking than Vuc and Gordon and play at a faster pace so there's a lot of opportunity for fultz to rack up the dimes. 

Even when those guys return, I think fultz will be fine. He's showing flashes of being a coveted #1 pick and this is probably what Orlando was hoping for

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This Vuc injury couldn’t have come at a better time. With the Magic managing his minutes at the start of the season to whip him into game shape, they’re ready to unleash him as they need his playmaking. I expect this to stick even when Vuc comes back - this is the test to see if he can handle heavy minutes.

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Any chance he starts shooting more three's? He shot 2 three's on 40% shooting and 5 attempts back in college. It'll boost his value a lot.

It's kinda like Brandon Ingram who shot similarly back in college (2 three's on 40%, 5 attempts), but didn't shoot enough with the Lakers until he got to the New Orleans.

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23 minutes ago, ThisIsSparta said:

Any chance he starts shooting more three's? He shot 2 three's on 40% shooting and 5 attempts back in college. It'll boost his value a lot.

It's kinda like Brandon Ingram who shot similarly back in college (2 three's on 40%, 5 attempts), but didn't shoot enough with the Lakers until he got to the New Orleans.

 

Very unlikely given the drama about his shooting.

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He’ll shoot the occasional 3 if he’s left wide open but his shot has such a slow and low wind up that it’s not a great option unless he has time.

 

It’s not something that’ll likely be a consistent part of his game this season but he’s providing enough value outside of that to be owned in standard leagues.

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So what is everyone's rough draft expectations for stats?

 

Current numbers are like Dejounte without the reb which is good for mid 100's rank now. I don't know much about his game but his college stuff and the his last game that he played, in which he looked smooth as hell.

 

So with 28 min a game and no Vuc and Augustin still in play....I know I'm at a loss at what to expect....more scoring and a slight uptick in boards, assists, and defense stats?

 

48/80 %'s gonna hold?

 

I feel like the scoring has to go way up with good efficiency for him to break top 100?

 

What yall got?

 

 

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3 hours ago, SkalChriston said:

So what is everyone's rough draft expectations for stats?

 

Current numbers are like Dejounte without the reb which is good for mid 100's rank now. I don't know much about his game but his college stuff and the his last game that he played, in which he looked smooth as hell.

 

So with 28 min a game and no Vuc and Augustin still in play....I know I'm at a loss at what to expect....more scoring and a slight uptick in boards, assists, and defense stats?

 

48/80 %'s gonna hold?

 

I feel like the scoring has to go way up with good efficiency for him to break top 100?

 

What yall got?

 

 

12-14ppg 

2-3 rpg

5-7 apg 

1.5stl

Percentages to stay on course
 

The upside is definitely real. 

 

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I appreciate that you guys are trying to realistically project his stats going forward to keep my expectations in check.  I've been holding this guy as a lottery ticket for awhile without really projecting his stats, just hoping he takes a huge step and has some sort of breakout.  I think I'd be happy with how you guys seem to be projecting him without a major breakout though.

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9 minutes ago, CharlesCC2 said:

I appreciate that you guys are trying to realistically project his stats going forward to keep my expectations in check.  I've been holding this guy as a lottery ticket for awhile without really projecting his stats, just hoping he takes a huge step and has some sort of breakout.  I think I'd be happy with how you guys seem to be projecting him without a major breakout though.

I think the major downside for Fultz is 3pt shooting. Competition for 3s is steep and you want all your players to shoot them. If he was hitting 1-2 3s per game, he wouldn't be on ww in 12 team leagues.

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Assists are at a premium this year. Maybe it's the system or go-to passers getting older but assists are hard to come by. Definitely scoop this guy up. I could see this guy at around 12-13 points, 6 assists, 1.5 ish steals. It's a matter of preference but would choose him over the current popular waiver wire topics at the moment, ie. PJ Washington, Frank Ntilikina, Deandre Hunter (Allan Houston 2.0), etc. 

Edited by Rotokilla
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