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Mike Nugent 2019 Outlook


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Kraft probably defers to Younghoe

If this guy misses two kicks in a game guarantee the Pats release him, go with Younghoe and sign another kicker to the practice squad. The Pats are going to stream the position IRL this season lol

Honestly all this talk about Nugent not being able to hit 50 burgers is getting a little ridiculous. His value will come from volume, lots of extra points and lots of kicks from the 30s. The Pats don'

Honestly all this talk about Nugent not being able to hit 50 burgers is getting a little ridiculous. His value will come from volume, lots of extra points and lots of kicks from the 30s. The Pats don't need to be kicking from 50+. Current top kickers like Butker, Gould, Zane, Lambo don't have a 50 yarder to their name yet this season. Tucker only has 1. You don't need to be able to kick across the ocean to produce 10+ fantasy points. It's all about the offense.

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2 hours ago, bigboyish said:

Honestly all this talk about Nugent not being able to hit 50 burgers is getting a little ridiculous. His value will come from volume, lots of extra points and lots of kicks from the 30s. The Pats don't need to be kicking from 50+. Current top kickers like Butker, Gould, Zane, Lambo don't have a 50 yarder to their name yet this season. Tucker only has 1. You don't need to be able to kick across the ocean to produce 10+ fantasy points. It's all about the offense.

To each their own, I suppose.  The top 4 kickers of this young season and the number of 50 yarders: Slye (4), Zuerlein (3), Gay (2), and Lutz (2).  Your "top" kickers - I'd say good or decent - are Butker #5, Gould #15, Zane #9, and Lambo #6.

It's not just "about the offense".  In terms of scoring, Carolina #11, Rams #5, Tampa Bay #3, and New Orleans #19 are the top 4 kickers' offenses.  Butker #5 kicker(KC #1) and Lambo #6 (Jags #19) are next.  So while it helps to have a top scoring offense, it's not a necessity to be a productive kicker.

Gostokowski finished last year as kicker #10.  He was currently #12 kicker for the year, despite the Patriots having the #4 scoring offense.

So the point is, a high scoring offense doesn't always translate to kicking success.  You can take your kicker who will get a ton of extra points and some 30 yard field goals.  I'll roster one with a huge leg whose coach will allow him to attempt those 50 yarders.  Nugent can't hit from that distance regularly.  So you'll see the Pats go for it more on 4th down when they're on the 35 yard line.  They converted 50% of their 4th down attempts last year.  So sometimes the drive continues and your kicker will get a chance for points.  Sometimes they'll turn it over and you get 0.

Anyway, much too analysis for a kicker.  Most would say - it's a kicker, close your eyes and pick one.

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16 minutes ago, CooL said:

To each their own, I suppose.  The top 4 kickers of this young season and the number of 50 yarders: Slye (4), Zuerlein (3), Gay (2), and Lutz (2).  Your "top" kickers - I'd say good or decent - are Butker #5, Gould #15, Zane #9, and Lambo #6.

It's not just "about the offense".  In terms of scoring, Carolina #11, Rams #5, Tampa Bay #3, and New Orleans #19 are the top 4 kickers' offenses.  Butker #5 kicker(KC #1) and Lambo #6 (Jags #19) are next.  So while it helps to have a top scoring offense, it's not a necessity to be a productive kicker.

Gostokowski finished last year as kicker #10.  He was currently #12 kicker for the year, despite the Patriots having the #4 scoring offense.

So the point is, a high scoring offense doesn't always translate to kicking success.  You can take your kicker who will get a ton of extra points and some 30 yard field goals.  I'll roster one with a huge leg whose coach will allow him to attempt those 50 yarders.  Nugent can't hit from that distance regularly.  So you'll see the Pats go for it more on 4th down when they're on the 35 yard line.  They converted 50% of their 4th down attempts last year.  So sometimes the drive continues and your kicker will get a chance for points.  Sometimes they'll turn it over and you get 0.

Anyway, much too analysis for a kicker.  Most would say - it's a kicker, close your eyes and pick one.

Yes of course what will give a kicker their value will vary, but what I was trying to illustrate was that there is no one formula that translates to success. Some of the top kickers get their points from the long bombs, and others volume. Just because Nugent isn't very accurate from 45+ doesn't mean that he won't put up fantasy numbers on the Patriots. Their offense is arguably the best in the league who's consistently knocking on the door and will produce lots of opportunities. The Pats knew Nugent's numbers and still picked him. Obviously Bill saw something he liked despite having a 81% FG%, and if range was everything, someone else would've been signed. I agree all kickers are interchangeable outside of probably Greg and Tucker, that's why if this Nugent experiment doesn't work out, there's always a worthy replacement in 10-12 team leagues. It's definitely worth the gamble for anyone needing a kicker, especially if you have someone like Fairbairn or Elliott.

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Yeah.  If you’re banking on 50 yarders for your kicker then one would think Janikowski was the top fake kicker over the last decade plus and he definitely wasn’t.   You can’t predict 50 yard FGs. 
 

it’s all about volume. 

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8 hours ago, Mr_Baller said:

So I made Nuge for Myers. Myers managed only 6 points tonight.

How do you see Nuge compared to Matt Gay?

 

Gay's got his bye week coming up. I wouldn't bother since you'll have to drop him in a couple weeks anyway. You aren't carrying either guy through the bye, in all likelihood.

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1 minute ago, candygram4mongo said:

Thanks for info,

But, source?

Nevermind. Found it. 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Mike Nugent in warmups, with the snapper and holder, was 2/5 from 48/49 yards and 1/4 from 51/52 yards.</p>&mdash; Mark Daniels (@MarkDanielsPJ) <a href="https://twitter.com/MarkDanielsPJ/status/1180876910152302594?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 6, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

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3 minutes ago, FrancoJavierM said:

Rain and 20 mph winds on Thursday night. Anyone picking up a different kicker for this week, but holding onto Nugent?

 

Million dollar question.  I'm considering dropping him because of weather.  Aren't those winds forecasted to be stronger than that?

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2 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

 

Million dollar question.  I'm considering dropping him because of weather.  Aren't those winds forecasted to be stronger than that?

As of now Google says 18mph, but yes I have heard that it will be stronger. Either way, I think I might bench him and pick someone else up.

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2 minutes ago, Heizz said:

I want to keep him, but due to no bench space, there is no way I can roster two kickers.

 

Might leave him in my line - Pats should be able to nearly score every play - gotta be good for a few close FGs

 

No concerns about strong winds and rain??

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