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Why do we draft WRS early again?


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Years ago, RBs would be taken extremely early.  The first few rounds would be filled with RBs.  Back in the day, when Calvin Johnson was a supreme WR he was a questionable first rounder.  

But now, the reason WRs go early is because it was a overcorrection response to medoicre RBs going before great WR.

Now that the trend is for WRs going early and overpicked, you can go back to RBs again.

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We don't. /endthread

Please elaborate the years??  He's in his third year.  Had a decent rookie season and tore his ACL last year.  Have you been telling everybody about him since college or high school?

I mean little early to proclaim a fantasy strategy is dead right?   Typically 0 RB gets stronger through the year where more injuries are accumulated. It's always easy to say xyz WR went off

8 minutes ago, Smoketheclay said:

Years ago, RBs would be taken extremely early.  The first few rounds would be filled with RBs.  Back in the day, when Calvin Johnson was a supreme WR he was a questionable first rounder.  

But now, the reason WRs go early is because it was a overcorrection response to medoicre RBs going before great WR.

Now that the trend is for WRs going early and overpicked, you can go back to RBs again.

Or just go BPA. RB hasn't been that great this year either. 33% of the top tier "can't miss" has pretty much missed so far, if we're counting injuries as misses which we obviously are. In 1 of my 2 leagues I'm doing well I took Kamara then went WR heavy because I hated the RBs available and luckily they've all hit. In my other league I took Tyreek and Adams 1/2 and likely would've been fine without injury. 

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This is exactly the kind of stuff that is going to make you lose your league next season. Every year there is a massive recency bias. Last year in the first two rounds you had DJ, Fournette, Hunt, Bell, Cook, Howard, and Freeman all bust or underperform. So what happens? Naturally, people start to say "RBs are too risky! WRs are the safe pick!" This causes the value of WRs to rise this year and the value of RBs to fall. 

So due to recency bias players were going too high at the WR position and too low at the RB position. Which naturally is going to cause the exact same thing in reverse next season. The top 15 is going to be 12-14 RBs and everyone is going to complain that RBs are too risky after they overdraft some due that had half a season of success. Welcome to the cycle. 

Stop looking at one year. Last year pretty much every WR drafted a a WR1 either delivered on that value or delivered close enough to make him still very valuable. Letting one year drastically influence your drafting is one of the biggest mistakes people make every year.

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55 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

I had Cook ranked higher than Adams. Hit me up next year, I'll give you some tips.

As did I.

I think my problem was having Cook ranked higher than Gurley but being too big of a b**** to pull the trigger. Not that Gurley is looking like a terrible pick...

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16 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

This is exactly the kind of stuff that is going to make you lose your league next season. Every year there is a massive recency bias. Last year in the first two rounds you had DJ, Fournette, Hunt, Bell, Cook, Howard, and Freeman all bust or underperform. So what happens? Naturally, people start to say "RBs are too risky! WRs are the safe pick!" This causes the value of WRs to rise this year and the value of RBs to fall. 

So due to recency bias players were going too high at the WR position and too low at the RB position. Which naturally is going to cause the exact same thing in reverse next season. The top 15 is going to be 12-14 RBs and everyone is going to complain that RBs are too risky after they overdraft some due that had half a season of success. Welcome to the cycle. 

Stop looking at one year. Last year pretty much every WR drafted a a WR1 either delivered on that value or delivered close enough to make him still very valuable. Letting one year drastically influence your drafting is one of the biggest mistakes people make every year.

I agree.

When it comes to deciding between RBs, WRs and TEs in the first two rounds, I draft the player, not the position.

Good research, IMO, is not, "this position underperformed expectations in these rounds last year" or, "I drafted a new FA signing last year and he burned me, so never again" it's more about what you understand about that player's abilities, teammates, coaching staff, health, consistency, etc.

It's not the positions that burn you, it's lack of preparation and bad luck.

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I usually draft elite WRs with my first 2 picks every year. I've had much success with that formula and I would have stuck with it again this year except the elite WRs were no longer in predictably elite situations.

 

AB - new team/HC/offensive coordinator/quarterback

OBJ - new team/HC/offensive coordinator/quarterback

Evans - new HC/offensive coordinator

Tyreek - boom/bust WR with unusual home/away splits

Hilton - Luck injury/subsequent retirement

JuJu - No AB/new role as WR1

Julio - new OC/return of Dirk Koetter

Adams - new HC/offensive coordinator

Diggs/Thielen - new OC (from middle of last season)/commitment to running the ball

Allen - Gordon was holding out/unsure of the offenses efficiency.

 

Thomas, Hopkins and maybe Allen were the only ones I felt comfortable drafting. Hopkins and Thomas were gone before my 1st selection. Allen was available, but I felt very strongly about Cook in the 2nd. Allen was gone before my 3rd selection.

 

The situations are just as important and sometimes even more important than the elite talent.

Having said that, I still expect all of those guys to eat before season's end.

I'm also buying low on Hopkins and Allen wherever I can.

 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Newtown said:

I usually draft elite WRs with my first 2 picks every year. I've had much success with that formula and I would have stuck with it again this year except the elite WRs were no longer in predictably elite situations.

 

AB - new team/HC/offensive coordinator/quarterback

OBJ - new team/HC/offensive coordinator/quarterback

Evans - new HC/offensive coordinator

Tyreek - boom/bust WR with unusual home/away splits

Hilton - Luck injury/subsequent retirement

JuJu - No AB/new role as WR1

Julio - new OC/return of Dirk Koetter

Adams - new HC/offensive coordinator

Diggs/Thielen - new OC (from middle of last season)/commitment to running the ball

Allen - Gordon was holding out/unsure of the offenses efficiency.

 

Thomas, Hopkins and maybe Allen were the only ones I felt comfortable drafting. Hopkins and Thomas were gone before my 1st selection. Allen was available, but I felt very strongly about Cook in the 2nd. Allen was gone before my 3rd selection.

 

The situations are just as important and sometimes even more important than the elite talent.

Having said that, I still expect all of those guys to eat before season's end.

I'm also buying low on Hopkins and Allen wherever I can.

 

 

 

Uh yeah this is recency bias to the max as well

 

Evans - His situation was seen as an upgrade

Hill - He got injured. Has nothing to do with your post

Hilton - Who could have possibly predicted the retirement? Luck was good to go

Julio - Has had massive success regardless of the OC his entire career

Adams - Injured. Rough start but was flat out balling in the game he got hurt

I faded Adams a bit because I thought he was too high for his ADP and am not as big of a believer in his talent. I also faded JuJu due to his new role and Odell because I think Mayfield is overrated. Brown was a red flag walking obviously. However, guys like Hill, Evans, Hilton, and a few others are just underperforming for reasons that are unpredictable.

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1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

Uh yeah this is recency bias to the max as well

 

Evans - His situation was seen as an upgrade

Hill - He got injured. Has nothing to do with your post

Hilton - Who could have possibly predicted the retirement? Luck was good to go

Julio - Has had massive success regardless of the OC his entire career

Adams - Injured. Rough start but was flat out balling in the game he got hurt

I faded Adams a bit because I thought he was too high for his ADP and am not as big of a believer in his talent. I also faded JuJu due to his new role and Odell because I think Mayfield is overrated. Brown was a red flag walking obviously. However, guys like Hill, Evans, Hilton, and a few others are just underperforming for reasons that are unpredictable.

 

I will take any offers that result in me getting Hill, Evans, Hilton or Julio by the way.

Newton is absolutely right, they are cooked.  I will offer you my shiny new Tyrell Williams.

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This was by far the most unsettled draft I’ve seen in 20 years of playing FF. Most  of the top 24 picks had big questions.  Barkley, Kamara, & McCaffrey were the only real RB performance guarantees (except for injury, of course). There were 2 RB holdouts (Elliott & Gordon), 3 RB’s in new offenses (DJohnson, Bell & Mixon). The rest were all RBBC situations of varying degrees. 

WR is a dependent position I’ve never been comfortable starting with but I tried it this year because of all the above. The problem with starting with WRs is not only do you have to worry about their own health but chemistry with QBs (especially in new offenses), bracketed coverages, shutdown corners that QBs avoid, & the QB’s health affect them. Hill is only injured, but Hopkins, Jones, Evans, Diggs, Theilen, Hilton & Juju are all victims of the extra issues this year too. 

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27 minutes ago, Newtown said:

I usually draft elite WRs with my first 2 picks every year. I've had much success with that formula and I would have stuck with it again this year except the elite WRs were no longer in predictably elite situations.

 

AB - new team/HC/offensive coordinator/quarterback

OBJ - new team/HC/offensive coordinator/quarterback

Evans - new HC/offensive coordinator

Tyreek - boom/bust WR with unusual home/away splits

Hilton - Luck injury/subsequent retirement

JuJu - No AB/new role as WR1

Julio - new OC/return of Dirk Koetter

Adams - new HC/offensive coordinator

Diggs/Thielen - new OC (from middle of last season)/commitment to running the ball

Allen - Gordon was holding out/unsure of the offenses efficiency.

 

Thomas, Hopkins and maybe Allen were the only ones I felt comfortable drafting. Hopkins and Thomas were gone before my 1st selection. Allen was available, but I felt very strongly about Cook in the 2nd. Allen was gone before my 3rd selection.

 

The situations are just as important and sometimes even more important than the elite talent.

Having said that, I still expect all of those guys to eat before season's end.

I'm also buying low on Hopkins and Allen wherever I can.

 

 

 

 

KA has outperformed his ADP and is WR5. Not sure you are buying low there.

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50 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

This is exactly the kind of stuff that is going to make you lose your league next season. Every year there is a massive recency bias. Last year in the first two rounds you had DJ, Fournette, Hunt, Bell, Cook, Howard, and Freeman all bust or underperform. So what happens? Naturally, people start to say "RBs are too risky! WRs are the safe pick!" This causes the value of WRs to rise this year and the value of RBs to fall. 

So due to recency bias players were going too high at the WR position and too low at the RB position. Which naturally is going to cause the exact same thing in reverse next season. The top 15 is going to be 12-14 RBs and everyone is going to complain that RBs are too risky after they overdraft some due that had half a season of success. Welcome to the cycle. 

Stop looking at one year. Last year pretty much every WR drafted a a WR1 either delivered on that value or delivered close enough to make him still very valuable. Letting one year drastically influence your drafting is one of the biggest mistakes people make every year.

 

A big reason there have been a lot of early RB busts the last couple seasons is teams are on this kick of having multiple guys.  Back in the late 90s early 2000s 20+ teams had their work horse running back that got the vast majority of the load.  These guys are becoming more and more rare.  Jordan Howard got cannibalized a ton by Cohen last year (also were people seriously drafting him in the first 2 rounds?).  With Cook people under estimated Latavius Muarry's role.  If you're talking about Royce Freeman there was Phillip Lindsay to worry about.

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Just now, FouLLine said:

 

A big reason there have been a lot of early RB busts the last couple seasons is teams are on this kick of having multiple guys.  Back in the late 90s early 2000s 20+ teams had their work horse running back that got the vast majority of the load.  These guys are becoming more and more rare.  Jordan Howard got cannibalized a ton by Cohen last year (also were people seriously drafting him in the first 2 rounds?).  With Cook people under estimated Latavius Muarry's role.  If you're talking about Royce Freeman there was Phillip Lindsay to worry about.

 

Then on the flip side of this is WRs while an emerging WR can eat into target share some it generally helps to have a nice tandem at least so that one WR can't always have a lock down DB on them at all times and teams then have to pick and choose.  But then again that also goes to the inconsistency of WRs if a team really tries to shut that one WR down as opposed to the other you can get low scoring games from WRs who have high averages on the season.  The same can be done to a RB but it is harder to do so it's a lot easier to tell your shut down defender hey you're going to shut this guy down all game.  Or every time we see this guy lined up on the outside we are doubling over the top.

 

To shut down the running back it isn't just the running back but the entire block scheme the team has to beat.

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1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

Uh yeah this is recency bias to the max as well

 

Evans - His situation was seen as an upgrade

Hill - He got injured. Has nothing to do with your post

Hilton - Who could have possibly predicted the retirement? Luck was good to go

Julio - Has had massive success regardless of the OC his entire career

Adams - Injured. Rough start but was flat out balling in the game he got hurt

I faded Adams a bit because I thought he was too high for his ADP and am not as big of a believer in his talent. I also faded JuJu due to his new role and Odell because I think Mayfield is overrated. Brown was a red flag walking obviously. However, guys like Hill, Evans, Hilton, and a few others are just underperforming for reasons that are unpredictable.

 

3 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

KA has outperformed his ADP and is WR5. Not sure you are buying low there.

 

Not exactly buy low I suppose, but his last 2 games were stinkers. Someone will be looking to sell.

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11 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Uh yeah this is recency bias to the max as well

 

Evans - His situation was seen as an upgrade

Hill - He got injured. Has nothing to do with your post

Hilton - Who could have possibly predicted the retirement? Luck was good to go

Julio - Has had massive success regardless of the OC his entire career

Adams - Injured. Rough start but was flat out balling in the game he got hurt

I faded Adams a bit because I thought he was too high for his ADP and am not as big of a believer in his talent. I also faded JuJu due to his new role and Odell because I think Mayfield is overrated. Brown was a red flag walking obviously. However, guys like Hill, Evans, Hilton, and a few others are just underperforming for reasons that are unpredictable.

 

Not recency bias for me. It's how I approach a draft. When there are so many factors determining player production, I hope to find some semblance of stability. I usually get it with AB, AJ, Hopkins, OBJ and Jones. More questions than answers for me personally this year so I decided to change and opted for RB early.

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I drafted adams and hill and needless to say am hurting but can turn it around when they come back hopefully this week (2 & 3). The idea was to take the least risk possible after the cant miss rbs go....the rest of the rbs after that all had questionable things about them....when it came to my pick of hill at #2, dalvin cook was already gone and he had the highest upside with less risk when compared to all the rbs available...

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31 minutes ago, lvsaint429 said:

This was by far the most unsettled draft I’ve seen in 20 years of playing FF. Most  of the top 24 picks had big questions.  Barkley, Kamara, & McCaffrey were the only real RB performance guarantees (except for injury, of course). There were 2 RB holdouts (Elliott & Gordon), 3 RB’s in new offenses (DJohnson, Bell & Mixon). The rest were all RBBC situations of varying degrees. 

WR is a dependent position I’ve never been comfortable starting with but I tried it this year because of all the above. The problem with starting with WRs is not only do you have to worry about their own health but chemistry with QBs (especially in new offenses), bracketed coverages, shutdown corners that QBs avoid, & the QB’s health affect them. Hill is only injured, but Hopkins, Jones, Evans, Diggs, Theilen, Hilton & Juju are all victims of the extra issues this year too. 

You're just going to see it get worse and worse.

RBs are not getting as much carries now as they did in the past. Game to game they tend to be more inconsistent and production is going to be down across the board for most. WRs are what they are which is more boom or bust than RBs week to week.

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Just now, tekashi26ix said:

Looking back i would say best place to draft would be last pick, go with CHUBB and COOK and then GODWIN and KUPP on turnaround, just like we all guessed, go figure... 

 

I'd almost guarantee that teams playing the Rams and Bucs are going to experiment with putting their best guy in the slot this year moving forward if they don't already have a very good nickel.

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25 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

You're just going to see it get worse and worse.

RBs are not getting as much carries now as they did in the past. Game to game they tend to be more inconsistent and production is going to be down across the board for most. WRs are what they are which is more boom or bust than RBs week to week.

Being an auction player, I always have the freedom to spend, but wasn’t comfortable dropping $77 or more on any of the top 3, either. Always felt it’s easier on the WW to find a usable WR than it is a RB

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1 hour ago, Newtown said:

I usually draft elite WRs with my first 2 picks every year. I've had much success with that formula and I would have stuck with it again this year except the elite WRs were no longer in predictably elite situations.

 

AB - new team/HC/offensive coordinator/quarterback

OBJ - new team/HC/offensive coordinator/quarterback

Evans - new HC/offensive coordinator

Tyreek - boom/bust WR with unusual home/away splits

Hilton - Luck injury/subsequent retirement

JuJu - No AB/new role as WR1

Julio - new OC/return of Dirk Koetter

Adams - new HC/offensive coordinator

Diggs/Thielen - new OC (from middle of last season)/commitment to running the ball

Allen - Gordon was holding out/unsure of the offenses efficiency.

 

Thomas, Hopkins and maybe Allen were the only ones I felt comfortable drafting. Hopkins and Thomas were gone before my 1st selection. Allen was available, but I felt very strongly about Cook in the 2nd. Allen was gone before my 3rd selection.

 

The situations are just as important and sometimes even more important than the elite talent.

Having said that, I still expect all of those guys to eat before season's end.

I'm also buying low on Hopkins and Allen wherever I can.

 

 

 

 

This is absolutely meaningless.  I can do the same thing with almost every single player

Kamara - Ingram left

Barkley - potential rookie QB

Zeke - new coordinator 

CMC - his big production was with Cam out and Cam was healthy starting the year

Cook - new OC

Chubb - new coach and Hunt looming

etc

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37 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

 

I'd almost guarantee that teams playing the Rams and Bucs are going to experiment with putting their best guy in the slot this year moving forward if they don't already have a very good nickel.

 

I can guarantee you that won't happen . 

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Just now, RunCMC said:

 

I can guarantee you that won't happen . 

 

Aside from the fact that some guys don't play well with inside leverage, why not?

Assuming they can adapt, it makes no sense not to.  Especially with the Rams.  Yeah, Cooks and Woods present challenges, but the connection between Goff and Kupp is on another level this year.  I'd do everything I could to disrupt that as a DC.  Plus if your guys can tackle you mess with the outside runs.

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