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you guys ready for Rotoworld mock draft 1????


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f you'd like to follow along with the picks in this draft, you can do so here.

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How do you guys see pitching in this one? In past couple season I've loaded up on offense and taken my chances at pitching. I feel like flipping on that approach this season. Seems like the elite guys are fewer this year. How many SP's would you want to have by round 5? round 10? or Where did you guys see the quality drop off? Were all the top guys cone by round 6?

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no excuses please , this is rotoworld mock draft 1. Very serious stuff. 

I'm a bit late with this, but now that I'm participating in the current mock, I thought it might be cool to run some projections at the end to see how my team looks compared to the rest "on paper".  T

Well that was fun. Thank you Tony 

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29 minutes ago, Dark Kn19ht said:

How do you guys see pitching in this one? In past couple season I've loaded up on offense and taken my chances at pitching. I feel like flipping on that approach this season. Seems like the elite guys are fewer this year. How many SP's would you want to have by round 5? round 10? or Where did you guys see the quality drop off? Were all the top guys cone by round 6?

IMO it depends on the spot you're drafting from. I'm usually very hitter heavy early but I do think you want to get 1 top arm. I love Nola, Wheeler, similar guys, but I don't want any as my top arm. 

Scherzer, Cole, Strasburg, Severino, Verlander, deGrom, Bieber, Flaherty, Clevinger, Snell, Buehler (not in that order necessarily) - gotta have 1 on my team. 

It pretty much translates into you need to take a pitcher in one of the first 3 rounds in a 12 team league. Who and when just depends on where you're drafting, who you've taken, and who is left. 

Ideally I'd be picking in the 5-8 range and get: 

pick 1 - Bregman, Story, Lindor, Turner, Bellinger

pick 2 - Rendon, Freeman, Tatis or deGrom

pick 3 - Flaherty, Bieber, Stras or Pete Alonso

I feel like that's a strong start. In my first 3 picks I want 1 pitcher and 1 1B. Otherwise, I'm all about grabbing best value and filling the gaps later. 

By round 5 - 1 pitcher. I want 1 in the first 3. After round 5 I start picking off arms as I like em. Guys with ADP's after round 5 include Greinke, Morton, Glasnow, Bauer, Kluber, Paxton, Berrios, Ryu, Carrasco, Montas... plenty of quality. 

The thing to consider is there are going to be Montas, Sonny Gray and Ryu type guys every year. You want to leave some room to throw darts at a couple of guys like that. Urias, Manaea, McCullers, Hendricks, Price, Stromas, Urquidy, Puk, May, Houser, Richards, Civale, Matz, Quintana, Gonzales... there are a lot of nice arms late. I wouldn't want to lean on one, but I'd want to roster a couple. 

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1 hour ago, MSkibisky said:

So my biggest takeaway from the mock - Where the F#$^ did the speed go?!

 

I understand that speed is becoming more and more rare in today's game, but it seems that even finding a guy that can swipe 10-15 bags without the rest of their line being .240/5/35 is impossible. It's really hard for me to draft someone like Mallex Smith anywhere inside the top 200 with him being such a 1 trick pony. I have almost my entire mock team capable of 30HR/80RBI.. but the speediest guy in the mix is (not counting Yelich) ... Ozuna? DeJong? Christian Walker? all at around 10sb? Jeez. what happened to the Crawford/BJ Upton/Matt Kemp guys? Or even the Chone Figgens guys that you can grab a little later on that at least wouldn't completely destroy your other cat's (At least he hit around .285). I don't want to pay the premium for speed-scarcity, and at this point, it seems that the scarcity is turning to extinction. Granted, I surely could have taken someone like Danny Santana or Tommy Pham a little later on who have decent speed with other category upside later in the draft, but for some reason, I overlooked those guys. Could this be another result of the "Juiced Ball" issue? More HR = less guys left on base to run? Maybe.. but it is still a trend that speed is becoming more and more of an anomaly statistic.

Just to reiterate how terrible these Speed-only guys are.. in 2019, the top 20 SB leaders - only 5 batted over .285, and of those 5, only 2 of them are outside a top 10 ADP (Marte and Merrifield). The guys who didn't bat over .285 who were drafting outside the top few rounds were guys like Mallex Smith, Elvis Andrus, Jarrod Dyson, Kolton Wong, Delino Deshields, Dee Gordon. And for the most part, those guys are all 1-trick-pony's. 

 

I guess I can consider myself a FBB "Veteran" at this point because now I have been in it long enough to remember when you didn't have to pay top 20 ADP price to get a guy that can steal bags AND do something else.

 

Boy.. I miss you 2006-2012 Han-Ram..

agree with u on speed.

its why my first 3 picks (Story, Jo Ram and Marte) are going to give me 70+ steals but also hit 80+ hrs...

Edited by jfazz23
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1 hour ago, Dark Kn19ht said:

How do you guys see pitching in this one? In past couple season I've loaded up on offense and taken my chances at pitching. I feel like flipping on that approach this season. Seems like the elite guys are fewer this year. How many SP's would you want to have by round 5? round 10? or Where did you guys see the quality drop off? Were all the top guys cone by round 6?

 

im perfectly happy with Snell and Severino.  as i think they can both finish top 10 maybe top 5

 

as i said above, i want to get guys who can run in at least 2 of my first 3 picks

Edited by jfazz23
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7 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

agree with u on speed.

its why my first 3 picks (Story, Jo Ram and Marte) are going to give me 70+ steals but also hit 80+ hrs...

I think this it the go-to strategy going into 2020. 30hr guys are a dime-a-dozen.. but it seems to be worth the price for those who can do that AND steal bases.. aka JoRam/Story/ even Turner with his quiet power.

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CSB but related to these posts.  A few years ago I was in a draft champions League with Lindy Hinkleman.  If you don’t know who that is, google him.  He won it again last year.  He was drafting around the turn and for his second pick, he took starling marte.  Marte was probably a late 2nd early 3rd that year so it seemed like a bit of a reach.  We asked him about it and he said “I like to get two guys who can get 5 categories early”.  Strategy seems to work out pretty well for him.

 

i try to get at least one who can get 5 cats early.  Sometimes an Arenado or pitcher falls and I can’t help it. FWIW, last year he took Yelich and Freeman.  Freeman isn’t a warrior on the base paths, but he killed it in 4 others

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40 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

 

 

i try to get at least one who can get 5 cats early.  Sometimes an Arenado or pitcher falls and I can’t help it. FWIW, last year he took Yelich and Freeman.  Freeman isn’t a warrior on the base paths, but he killed it in 4 others


ideally you certainly want five category guys but the four category guys that go early feel really safe for the four at least .

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10 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

Absent some fundamental change in MLB attitudes toward the value of steals, I could see SB scarcity driving a stake through the heart of the standard 5x5 roto format in the next few years.  We don't need a category to map perfectly to real life baseball value, and sometimes it's arguably more fun to have the "game within a game" aspect of chasing a category that doesn't necessarily correlate with just getting the best players, but the boom/bust nature of SB dart throws adds so much variance to a format that already has plenty of randomness associated with other categories.

We all embrace some amount of randomness, but roto players as a rule tend to be less comfortable with it than H2H players.  We want the results to more or less reflect how we did at the draft table, and how we managed our teams during the season.  Having only a few elite contributors in a category and a bunch of guys maybe chipping in but killing you elsewhere is a real drag.  I'm almost certainly going to be experimenting with a 6x6 league in 2020 to try to see what it's like playing with SB and SV devalued a bit.


Two hitting 6x6 I really like

HR/R/RBI/SB/AVG/OPS

and my favorite:

HR/R/RBI/SB/OBP/TB


for pitching, I would be sure to do “Sv+HD” as a category instead of SV 

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9 hours ago, sngehl01 said:

IMO it depends on the spot you're drafting from. I'm usually very hitter heavy early but I do think you want to get 1 top arm. I love Nola, Wheeler, similar guys, but I don't want any as my top arm. 

Scherzer, Cole, Strasburg, Severino, Verlander, deGrom, Bieber, Flaherty, Clevinger, Snell, Buehler (not in that order necessarily) - gotta have 1 on my team. 

It pretty much translates into you need to take a pitcher in one of the first 3 rounds in a 12 team league. Who and when just depends on where you're drafting, who you've taken, and who is left. 

Ideally I'd be picking in the 5-8 range and get: 

pick 1 - Bregman, Story, Lindor, Turner, Bellinger

pick 2 - Rendon, Freeman, Tatis or deGrom

pick 3 - Flaherty, Bieber, Stras or Pete Alonso

I feel like that's a strong start. In my first 3 picks I want 1 pitcher and 1 1B. Otherwise, I'm all about grabbing best value and filling the gaps later. 

By round 5 - 1 pitcher. I want 1 in the first 3. After round 5 I start picking off arms as I like em. Guys with ADP's after round 5 include Greinke, Morton, Glasnow, Bauer, Kluber, Paxton, Berrios, Ryu, Carrasco, Montas... plenty of quality. 

The thing to consider is there are going to be Montas, Sonny Gray and Ryu type guys every year. You want to leave some room to throw darts at a couple of guys like that. Urias, Manaea, McCullers, Hendricks, Price, Stromas, Urquidy, Puk, May, Houser, Richards, Civale, Matz, Quintana, Gonzales... there are a lot of nice arms late. I wouldn't want to lean on one, but I'd want to roster a couple. 

 

You dont think Sonny Gray is in that greinke, kluber, paxton round 5 category? i mean he had a 5.6 WAR, 205ks,  (both bests of career) 2.87 era, 1.08 whip.  it was the best k/9 of his career as well.  seems like he really likes the NL and cincy. couldnt handle the NY media apparently.  plus cincy seems like they are adding bats to win.  he may get run support and can possibly be a 15 game winner.

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10 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

 

You dont think Sonny Gray is in that greinke, kluber, paxton round 5 category? i mean he had a 5.6 WAR, 205ks,  (both bests of career) 2.87 era, 1.08 whip.  it was the best k/9 of his career as well.  seems like he really likes the NL and cincy. couldnt handle the NY media apparently.  plus cincy seems like they are adding bats to win.  he may get run support and can possibly be a 15 game winner.

No, I absolutely do not think Gray is there. That said, I didn't necessarily say he wasn't, I was just indicating how valuable he was after years of mediocrity. 

It was the first year since 2015 he's had a sub 3.5 ERA, and his FIP those years weren't any better (4.67, 3.90, 4.17). Even his FIP this past season was 3.42, which was further helped by his jump in K/9 (first year he's jumped over a batter an inning). 

I like Sonny Gray as a back end piece just fine, but there's no way I'm putting him with guys who have done work for years. I can understand someone favoring him over Kluber at this point given injury concerns, but I am not going to really reach on him based on 1 year. Even his first half last year was more of the same just about, with a few more K's. He turned it on down the stretch. This also leaves some decent room for him to be a good draft pick that really helps squads. 

Gray is right around pick 100 on NFC. I think round 5 is a huge reach for him in a 12 team league. 

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4 hours ago, sngehl01 said:

No, I absolutely do not think Gray is there. That said, I didn't necessarily say he wasn't, I was just indicating how valuable he was after years of mediocrity. 

It was the first year since 2015 he's had a sub 3.5 ERA, and his FIP those years weren't any better (4.67, 3.90, 4.17). Even his FIP this past season was 3.42, which was further helped by his jump in K/9 (first year he's jumped over a batter an inning). 

I like Sonny Gray as a back end piece just fine, but there's no way I'm putting him with guys who have done work for years. I can understand someone favoring him over Kluber at this point given injury concerns, but I am not going to really reach on him based on 1 year. Even his first half last year was more of the same just about, with a few more K's. He turned it on down the stretch. This also leaves some decent room for him to be a good draft pick that really helps squads. 

Gray is right around pick 100 on NFC. I think round 5 is a huge reach for him in a 12 team league. 

 

i mean i got him at pick 113 in the 10th. i think its a great value.  i think he can maintain this production in the NL.  and it seems cincy is getting pieces around him.

 

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47 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

i mean i got him at pick 113 in the 10th. i think its a great value.  i think he can maintain this production in the NL.  and it seems cincy is getting pieces around him.

 

Well you asked about round 5, not ~pick 120. 

 

😊

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  • 2 months later...

I'm a bit late with this, but now that I'm participating in the current mock, I thought it might be cool to run some projections at the end to see how my team looks compared to the rest "on paper".  Then I remembered that I signed up for FantasyPros My Playbook feature last season when they had some super cheap deal on it, and that they support Fantrax as a provider.  So I figured I'd run it first for the two mocks that have completed, then again after the 3rd one is done, so that people can see how they did based on Fantrax's 2020 projections.

Anyway, here are the results of the first mock.  Congrats to @MSkibisky, the paper champion of Mock Draft #1!

image.thumb.png.4c1f3569a00cf2f597dad16ef14a8544.png

image.thumb.png.3325331c720907dddb1b1c4cce0c8d5d.png

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