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Dansby Swanson 2020 Outlook


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I know I know. SS is super deep. That being said, there's a lot to like here and he could be a very late SS or MI option for people in drafts this year.   "Dansby Swanson (17 HR; 2

Yes. Another satisfied customer.

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7 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

Pretty much.  It was a heck of a run, but it's beginning to look like he would have struggled to be a Top 10 SS if this was a full season.

 

Per NFBC he the 26th ranked SS by ADP, I know Justin Mason had him outside to the top 30. He was drafted as a MI option and producing top 10 SS value now, top 40 overall player. Pretty great draft buy.  Personally I think he'd finish top 10 or close to it, and that was always the upside. He's having a rough patch right now. Happens. 

 

He's currently a top 35 player on the Razball player rater.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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1 minute ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Per NFBC he the 26th ranked SS by ADP, I know Justin Mason had him outside to the top 30. He was drafted as a MI option and producing top 10 SS value now, top 40 overall player. Pretty great draft buy.  Personally I think he'd finish top 10 or close to it, and that was always the upside. He's having a rough patch right now. Happens. 

 

He's currently a top 35 player on the Razball player rater.

I didn't mean that I thought he sucks period.  I was just agreeing that he does right now, but while I still think he would have continued to fall off more in a full season (his first half of this season was significantly better than his second half).  That would have made it really difficult to be ahead of Tatis, Machado, Story, Turner, Anderson, Seager, Bogaerts, Lindor, and Mondesi, so he would have had to fight with Didi to stick in the Top 10.  Possible, but it would have been hard to finish above the other 9 if things were normal.

Still, like I said, he had a great run for about a month or so as a whole.

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4 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

I didn't mean that I thought he sucks period.  I was just agreeing that he does right now, but while I still think he would have continued to fall off more in a full season (his first half of this season was significantly better than his second half).  That would have made it really difficult to be ahead of Tatis, Machado, Story, Turner, Anderson, Seager, Bogaerts, Lindor, and Mondesi, so he would have had to fight with Didi to stick in the Top 10.  Possible, but it would have been hard to finish above the other 9 if things were normal.

Still, like I said, he had a great run for about a month or so as a whole.

 

Point is he wasn't drafted as anything close to a starting SS in a 12 team league, but he's been one comfortably thus far. He was either a waiver wire pickup in a 10-12 teamer, or an MI option in most leagues and performed pretty serviceably. Being a top 10 SS is pretty much his ceiling.  I assume next year for rankings he'll be around 15 or slightly better, which is a big upgrade from last season.  Based on expectations' he's flourished. If the expectation now is for him to be a near top tier SS, that's probably asking too much.

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He's struggled lately, but we had to see that coming. 

That said, he's played in 51 games, and if you project those to a full season of 153 games, he's putting up five-cat number of .270-129-21-81-15. Obviously the runs should come down because he won't be batting in Albies' no2 hole next year, but even last year he scored 77 runs in 127 games, which projects to over 90 for a full season. If you tell me I'll get .270-90-20-80-15 from him next year as a MI, sign me up. And let's not forget that he had 15 HR and 52 RBI through the end of June last year before getting hurt, so he could possibly hit 25-30 HR over a full season. 

The current slump sucks, and he's striking out a lot more this year...but neither one dampens my outlook on Swanson next year. I just hope he's able to finish strong this season. Tifwiw...but going into tonight, Yahoo has him ranked 9th among SS and 12th among all MI in traditional 5x5. I'm thinking it has to be because of his run total. 

Edited by Flyman75
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Aside from hitting 4 HRs he’s been pretty brutal on the road this year, slashing a weak .214/.279/.359 with only a single stolen base over 29 games.

In contrast, in 23 home games he’s hit .344/.422/.533 with 3 homers, 8 doubles and 4 steals.

Seeing as the Braves play their final 7 games at home, I think I’m going to just cross my fingers and ride this out.

Edited by crafty
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1 hour ago, crafty said:

Aside from hitting 4 HRs he’s been pretty brutal on the road this year, slashing a weak .214/.279/.359 with only a single stolen base over 29 games.

In contrast, in 23 home games he’s hit .344/.422/.533 with 3 homers, 8 doubles and 4 steals.

Seeing as the Braves play their final 7 games at home, I think I’m going to just cross my fingers and ride this out.

 

The sample size here is incredibly small.  Plus Dansby has been relegated to the 8 hole.  Atlanta would have to hit a ton for him to get the counting stats you would want and I think there are better plays in 10 or 12 man leagues.

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4 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

 

The sample size here is incredibly small.  Plus Dansby has been relegated to the 8 hole.  Atlanta would have to hit a ton for him to get the counting stats you would want and I think there are better plays in 10 or 12 man leagues.


True. But the 9 game skid you’d be dismissing him over is an even smaller one ;)

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2 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

What sample size would you like to use? He's been garbage for the past 3 years.  His stats now look eerily like last year's slash line.  


Well, for starters, how about the 44 game sample before this slump began?

You know, the one where he was slashing .310/.375/.500 with 7 HRs, 5 SBs, 43 runs scored and 25 RBIs?

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4 hours ago, crafty said:


Well, for starters, how about the 44 game sample before this slump began?

You know, the one where he was slashing .310/.375/.500 with 7 HRs, 5 SBs, 43 runs scored and 25 RBIs?

But I'm sure at some point during his so far, disappointing career he went 30-40 games with a pretty good slash line.  The only reason that 44 game stands out is being it was during the start of an abbreviated season.

I'm just saying the guy is in the midst of a horrible slump and is now batting 9th.  Unless there's absolutely no one else in a really deep league, picking him up and using him is a poor percentage play. If it was May instead of September in a regular season then absolutely don't do anything.  If it's a keeper league with a good number of keepers and Dansby is held cheaply then keep him.  If Dansby was still batting second, maybe you hold on to him for the runs/RBI potential. But at this point it's a poor percentage play.  I mean I know a guy who calls every bet with 7-2 because it's a favorite hand and I've seen him win some enormous pots because of it.  Might get lucky but it's just not a good move right now.

That being said he will probably hit 3 HRs tonight:)

Edited by KingJoffrey
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8 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

What sample size would you like to use? He's been garbage for the past 3 years.  His stats now look eerily like last year's slash line.  


I will say this for Swanson, he was having a great 2019 before he was hurt. And when he returned, he just wasn’t the same. The question is, can he get back to that great pre-injury 2019? 

Even with this slump, he’s still a top 9 SS and top 12 MI going into tonight (according to Yahoo’s rater).

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2 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

But I'm sure at some point during his so far, disappointing career he went 30-40 games with a pretty good slash line.  The only reason that 44 game stands out is being it was during the start of an abbreviated season.

I'm just saying the guy is in the midst of a horrible slump and is now batting 9th.  Unless there's absolutely no one else in a really deep league, picking him up and using him is a poor percentage play. If it was May instead of September in a regular season then absolutely don't do anything.  If it's a keeper league with a good number of keepers and Dansby is held cheaply then keep him.  If Dansby was still batting second, maybe you hold on to him for the runs/RBI potential. But at this point it's a poor percentage play.  I mean I know a guy who calls every bet with 7-2 because it's a favorite hand and I've seen him win some enormous pots because of it.  Might get lucky but it's just not a good move right now.

That being said he will probably hit 3 HRs tonight:)

Fair enough. I guess I’m just a bit of a glass-half-full kinda guy when it comes to players like Dansby. The home/road splits are thin, I’ll admit that, but in a crazy shortened season such as this, sometimes it’s all we have to go on... 

Plus my waiver wire is absolute garbage as far guys who can contribute in both power and speed, so I guess I’m just hoping that the trend holds for just one more week. Haha

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On 9/20/2020 at 11:18 PM, crafty said:

Aside from hitting 4 HRs he’s been pretty brutal on the road this year, slashing a weak .214/.279/.359 with only a single stolen base over 29 games.

In contrast, in 23 home games he’s hit .344/.422/.533 with 3 homers, 8 doubles and 4 steals.

Seeing as the Braves play their final 7 games at home, I think I’m going to just cross my fingers and ride this out.

 

I know this has been a short term result but thank you, truly, for this tip as I was all but ready to drop him for my H2H championship week. He's looked like a different player the minute he got to Atlanta. I'm now curious what the reasoning is for the drastic home/away split as it's never been the case throughout his career.

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1 hour ago, bly08 said:

 

I know this has been a short term result but thank you, truly, for this tip as I was all but ready to drop him for my H2H championship week. He's looked like a different player the minute he got to Atlanta. I'm now curious what the reasoning is for the drastic home/away split as it's never been the case throughout his career.

Hey, no problem @bly08

I personally wouldn’t read too much into the home/road thing next year, though, as it’s more likely than not something that can be chalked up to the crazy times we’re in... like maybe he’s a bit more worried about COVID than others and it’s made him uncomfortable travelling to different cities/hotel rooms/club houses/etc... but who knows 🤷‍♂️

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Dansby donged 2 times in 2 days to besmirch all the haters.  Some of you are holding expectations on him way too high.  He's #40 hitter on the year per razball and top 10  SS. (side not: SS is so strong these days, 5-7 years ago you maybe get 1-2 SS in the top 50)

 

This guy was drafted outside the top 20 SS this year.  If you drafted him as an MI this year, you did great. If you drafted him as your starter in a deep league, you did great. If you picked him up off the waiver wire early and rode him, you did decently.

He was a top 4 SS for a minute, but realistically he's not that. Closer to 12-14

 

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31 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Dansby donged 2 times in 2 days to besmirch all the haters.  Some of you are holding expectations on him way too high.  He's #40 hitter on the year per razball and top 10  SS. (side not: SS is so strong these days, 5-7 years ago you maybe get 1-2 SS in the top 50)

 

This guy was drafted outside the top 20 SS this year.  If you drafted him as an MI this year, you did great. If you drafted him as your starter in a deep league, you did great. If you picked him up off the waiver wire early and rode him, you did decently.

He was a top 4 SS for a minute, but realistically he's not that. Closer to 12-14

 

 

Yeah, I think the expectations were unreasonable for there to be as much consternation as there was over a slump that spanned something like 30 ABs. After the last two days he's hitting .276-48-9-31-5 in 221 ABs as my MI. Yes, please. Lol. Removing his 129 AB first season in the Majors, in this 60-game sample size, he's setting a career highs in BA, OBP, Slg, OPS, and OPS+. His current pace would set a new career high in R, HR, RBI, SB, DB, TB. And just as important as all that (arguably, more important), he's been healthy all season. 

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