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Shohei Ohtani 2020 Outlook


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At the risk of being tarred and feathered, I’m starting to think he’s a little over rated.  That doesn’t mean I’m saying be sucks or that I don’t like him, but are we overvaluing the “extra roster spot” which is so league dependent?  He is a util which anyone can play and he’s probably set for about 110-125 innings if everything goes right.  you can often just stream for those positions. unless he’s an above average SP is that worth it?   he hasn’t pitched over 100 innings since Japan in 2016.  We don’t know what we are going to get there as a SP.

Hes particularly difficult to trade in a dynasty because everyone gushes over his “value” or ceiling but nobody is willing to pay the price for it.  

Edited by kidtwentytwo
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This outing doesn’t change that fact, in case you weren’t aware.

No hitter!  Stud!

When any other pitcher gets TJ. They don't lose P eligibility. That is the point. Rules and conventional wisdom don't pass the sniff test when an exception presents itself. Which is what Othani i

On 1/10/2020 at 8:12 AM, kidtwentytwo said:

At the risk of being tarred and feathered, I’m starting to think he’s a little over rated.  That doesn’t mean I’m saying be sucks or that I don’t like him, but are we overvaluing the “extra roster spot” which is so league dependent?  He is a util which anyone can play and he’s probably set for about 110-125 innings if everything goes right.  you can often just stream for those positions. unless he’s an above average SP is that worth it?   he hasn’t pitched over 100 innings since Japan in 2016.  We don’t know what we are going to get there as a SP.

Hes particularly difficult to trade in a dynasty because everyone gushes over his “value” or ceiling but nobody is willing to pay the price for it.  

 

It is so league dependent it's hard to have a discussion on whether he is overrated or underrated. I'll give an extreme example- I have him in a relatively shallow 12 team league with no CI or MI, 3 OF slots and 2 UTIL slots, 5 bench slots with only 5 transaction a week allowed to limit streaming.  Daily rosters, HTH 6x6 categories league with QS and OPS added. I can't imagine a league where he would be more valuable. I'll be able to plug him in the day he starts, put him at UTIL the other four or so days. In a league like that, roster slot flexibility is huge. You get a full time UTIL (plugging in another bench player the days he's off) and an extra SP start every week, without having to use one of my 5 transactions. 

 

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On 1/9/2020 at 10:33 PM, StevieStats said:

I'm going to say in one Ohtani leagues that him being a closer would significantly hurt his value.

Let's think about this, as a one player you have to choose on a given day whether he is going to be in your UTIL slot or your Pitcher slot. So as an SP with scheduled starts it makes it very easy to determine when to put him in your SP slot and when in UTIL. However, if he's a closer, unless they bench him certain days from hitting and tell you ahead of time it would be difficult to blindly guess when to stick him in RP. If they use him as a DH then bring him in to close, forget it, good luck guessing when to hit or pitch.

 

Good points and didn't think of that. Unless the fantasy sites came up with some sort of way to allow him in two roster slots same day, you'd have to decide on UTIL or RP each day. 

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1 hour ago, bluefrogguy said:

 

Good points and didn't think of that. Unless the fantasy sites came up with some sort of way to allow him in two roster slots same day, you'd have to decide on UTIL or RP each day. 

He would be a fantasy monster if he were a closer and could collect both hitting and pitching stats on the same day as a single player. I'd love to see that!

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46 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

He would be a fantasy monster if he were a closer and could collect both hitting and pitching stats on the same day as a single player. I'd love to see that!

 

Would NL pitchers get credit for their hitting stats as well?  Would that make AL pitchers more valuable since you wouldn't get the horrible average.  Would it make relievers more valuable since they never get to hit.

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The part that will suck is that in Yahoo leagues where he is split is that you likely will have to carry him (pitcher) as a dead roster slot until he is ready to pitch in May or whenever. He won't be on the real-life IL, so you won't be able to stash him in there.

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1 hour ago, supac720 said:

The part that will suck is that in Yahoo leagues where he is split is that you likely will have to carry him (pitcher) as a dead roster slot until he is ready to pitch in May or whenever. He won't be on the real-life IL, so you won't be able to stash him in there.


Yahoo's separating of Ohtani into two players was/is really lame.  I like them overall as a platform, but Ohtani should be one player.  They should've figured it out.  

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2 hours ago, Baseball Jonze said:

Will Ohtani play in the field at all this season?  Get either 1B or RF eligibility or something. 

 

Highly doubt it, they haven't said anything about that potentially happening. You can't have a rehabbing pitcher play in the field.

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have him in a weekly keeper league.  dude loses a ton of value by not playing everyday and/or only pitching one time a week.  than you add a rain out and you have a big zero for the week.  but golly gee i think i am keep him over a ton of other guys just because he is so interesting to own.

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2 hours ago, einstein2u said:

have him in a weekly keeper league.  dude loses a ton of value by not playing everyday and/or only pitching one time a week.  than you add a rain out and you have a big zero for the week.  but golly gee i think i am keep him over a ton of other guys just because he is so interesting to own.

You can kinda take this worry away if the Angles are playing at home

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/05/angels-game-angel-stadium-rainout-rare-1995-mlb

 

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Is there any site that gives an auction value for Ohtani as only a hitter?

Fantasypros gives his auction value as $14 as a hitter and pitcher.  What might be a percentage of that amount I could give as a hitter?

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28 minutes ago, B&F said:

Is there any site that gives an auction value for Ohtani as only a hitter?

$17 according to Fangraphs auction calculator for 5x5.

https://www.fangraphs.com/auctiontool.aspx?type=DH&proj=steamer&pos=2,1,1,1,5,1,1,1,0,1,6,3,0,10,0&dollars=260&teams=12&mp=20&msp=5&mrp=5&mb=1&split=&points=c|0,1,2,3,4|0,1,2,3,4&lg=mlb&rep=0&drp=0&pp=C,SS,2B,3B,OF,1B&players=&sort=1,a

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Platform differences on Ohtani:

 

Yahoo- 2 players, eligibility intact for both (Util/DH and SP)

 

CBS- 1 player, eligibility intact for both

 

Fantrax- 1 player, ineligible at SP until 5 starts. 
 

ESPN- 1 player, eligible for both

 

NFBC- 1 player, eligible for both
 

Is this correct?

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43 minutes ago, bluefrogguy said:

Platform differences on Ohtani:

 

Yahoo- 2 players, eligibility intact for both (Util/DH and SP)

 

CBS- 1 player, eligibility intact for both

 

Fantrax- 1 player, ineligible at SP until 5 starts. 
 

ESPN- 1 player, eligible for both

 

NFBC- 1 player, eligible for both
 

Is this correct?

onroto- Site will accommodate whatever league/commish agree to. Not stuck with platform restrictions. 

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7 minutes ago, Atomicdogg97 said:

So how many times a week will he be a hitter? Where is he worth drafting as a hitter?

Ohtani is a unique player that his ADP is directly dependent on your League type, settings, and your provider.

There's no consensus ADP for him, but assuming he is a batter only (like on Y!) and he's only going to bat 3-4 games per week maybe, and assuming its a redraft standard daily league (and not a weekly league!) then I'd think he's pretty passable, but at around 200 or so I might grab him. 

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