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2019-2020 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread


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4 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Right, being a CF who plays the corners that's what helps his age curve. Not hurt.

He has consistently hit for power way better then Ellsbury and Crawford. I'm not gonna aruge if he's going to be worth a 350M deal by his mid 30's. Just that he's not going to becomes replacement level-1 win player like a dime into his 30's.

 

but the corner OFs who age better tend to be the guys with big bats like a nelson cruz, manny ramirez because their game isnt tied to their speed and athleticism.  plus i think leaving boston really hurts him.  i guess agree to disagree for now.  lets see how the year plays out.

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1 minute ago, jfazz23 said:

 

but the corner OFs who age better tend to be the guys with big bats like a nelson cruz, manny ramirez because their game isnt tied to their speed and athleticism.  plus i think leaving boston really hurts him.  i guess agree to disagree for now.  lets see how the year plays out.

Betts IS a great hitter pure hitter. He is top 20 in the last decade. Just off his hitting. Nothing to do with speed and defense. 

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8 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Betts IS a great hitter pure hitter. He is top 20 in the last decade. Just off his hitting. Nothing to do with speed and defense. 

 

id say a pure hitter hits 3rd or 4th and carries a team (maybe 2nd nowadays).  hits for power (which right now is 40 homeruns or more) or constantly hits above 300 (which betts has done twice in 5-6 years and he probably had stolen signs in 2018)  hes a career 890 OPS guy (with his suspect 2018 year included).  thats not a pure hitter IMO.  a lot of his value is tied to his stolen bases/base running/defense. betts is more MAchado than Trout and i think the machado contract was horrible and i think giving betts a machado contract is a VERY bad idea.  just my opinion of course

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6 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

id say a pure hitter hits 3rd or 4th and carries a team (maybe 2nd nowadays).  hits for power (which right now is 40 homeruns or more) or constantly hits above 300 (which betts has down twice in 5-6 years and he probably had stolen signs in 2018)  hes a career 890 OPS guy (with his suspect 2018 year included).  thats not a pure hitter IMO.  a lot of his value is tied to his stolen bases/base running/defense. betts is more MAchado than Trout and i think the machado contract was horrible and i think giving betts a machado contract is a VERY bad idea.  just my opinion of course

Mookie Betts is no Trout. I do think him asking for Trout money is stupid. I don't think you realize how few plays consistently put up 900+ OPSs. Nelson Cruz's career OPS is .873. 

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Just now, Slatykamora said:

Mookie Betts is no Trout. I do think him asking for Trout money is stupid. I don't think you realize how few plays consistently put up 900+ OPSs. Nelson Cruz's career OPS is .873

 

betts should have jumped all over 10 years 300 million.  brock is right, hell probably get a Rendon type contract unlesshe hits 275 with 20 homers (which i think is possible)

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36 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

betts isnt your typical corner outfielder.  he is basically a CF playing RF.  hell lose some speed in a few years and that hurts his game a good deal.  plus i think a good amount of his AVG and HRs were tied to Fenway.  314 in fenway last year.  275 on the road. 17hr vs 12....  and many of his road games are in very hitter friendly parks.  yankee stadium, camden, toronto....as well as facing baltimore pitching lol

 

edit: although hes hit more homeruns on the road in previous years his avg is always substantially lower

Betts is and outfielder who play all three positions. I never understood this infatuation about home/road splits. Why is a Yankee fan bringing that **** up makes me wonder. Don’cha remember a dude named DJ LaMahieu? 

We also should factor in defense and isn’t Betts one of the best. 

49 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

i actually think rendon is the better player IRL.  i think if betts has a soso year, teams are gonna look at MAchado's contract and think twice before giving betts anything like that.  i think Rendon ages better than betts too

Crystal ball says so? 

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3 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

Betts is and outfielder who play all three positions. I never understood this infatuation about home/road splits. Why is a Yankee fan bringing that **** up makes me wonder. Don’cha remember a dude named DJ LaMahieu? 

We also should factor in defense and isn’t Betts one of the best. 

Crystal ball says so? 

 

grab a snickers

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17 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

betts should have jumped all over 10 years 300 million.  brock is right, hell probably get a Rendon type contract unlesshe hits 275 with 20 homers (which i think is possible)

I love what the Dodgers brass did. They trade for Betts and his 27M and trade Joc & Stripling to stay under the number. Smart freaking organization. 
 

Betts is a superstar ... The Red Sox brass is so damn stupid. Fell in love with Sale & Eovaldi gave them big contracts. Lol Sale was already under contract and reupped a guy who every damn scout who seen his mechanics had this stinky feeling he eventually was going to break down. 

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1 minute ago, shakestreet said:

I love what the Dodgers brass did. They trade for Betts and his 27M and trade Joc & Stripling to stay under the number. Smart freaking organization. 
 

Betts is a superstar ... The Red Sox brass is so damn stupid. Fell in love with Sale & Eovaldi gave them big contracts. Lol Sale was already under contract and reupped a guy who every damn scout who seen his mechanics had this stinky feeling he eventually was going to break down. 

 

bold prediction.  Romon Laureano has a better year than mookie betts

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10 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

bold prediction.  Romon Laureano has a better year than mookie betts

I was just mentioning to someone else that my hail mary out of no where AL MVP bet would be Ramon Laureano. So I don't have to dis-agree with and still believe Betts is elite.

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1 minute ago, Slatykamora said:

I was just mentioning to someone else that my hail mary out of no where AL MVP bet would be Ramon Laureano. So I don't have to dis-agree with and still believe Betts is elite.

 

haha i made a bold prediction thread.  almost put Laureano as MVP as well, but that was just TOO bold for me

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1 hour ago, jfazz23 said:

plus i think a good amount of his AVG and HRs were tied to Fenway.  314 in fenway last year.  275 on the road. 17hr vs 12....  

It's not unusual for guys to be better at home than on the road. Also - Betts hits a fair amount of balls to CF, long fly outs in Boston will be homers in LA. 

Baseball hitters 2019 splits

home - .255/.327/.439

away - .250/.318/.430

1 hour ago, jfazz23 said:

id say a pure hitter hits 3rd or 4th and carries a team (maybe 2nd nowadays).  hits for power (which right now is 40 homeruns or more) or constantly hits above 300 (which betts has done twice in 5-6 years and he probably had stolen signs in 2018)  hes a career 890 OPS guy (with his suspect 2018 year included).  thats not a pure hitter IMO.  a lot of his value is tied to his stolen bases/base running/defense. betts is more MAchado than Trout and i think the machado contract was horrible and i think giving betts a machado contract is a VERY bad idea.  just my opinion of course

10 guys last year, in the year of long balls, hit 40 home runs. 19 guys hit .300. Only 4 did both. In the past 3 years as a whole, only 12 players have hit for a higher average than Betts, only 14 have put up a higher wRC+. Only 23 have had a lower K rate. Only 1 player has produced more total WAR over the last 3 seasons. 

Dissect that however you want, but Betts did that through his age 25, 26, and 27 seasons. He may just now be hitting the proverbial "prime" which is a guy that can give you a .300 BA, 30 HR, and 20 steals to boot. The .390+ OBP is nice too. 

Even without the stolen bases at all, you have a .300/.390/.530 type bat (OPS of .920) and that is absolutely elite. He's not a K liability and he leads the league in several appealing statcast cats. He's one of the premier bats in the league and plays outstanding defense and has speed to go with it. 

Screenshot from 2020-02-06 14-25-30.png

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I wonder if they ever truly considered the third possibility of just getting nothing back.  This notion that they had to get something for him,  imo,  is a fallacy.  

You compete at your highest chances for a few years,  and then just let him go FA. This deal could've just as easily been done at the deadline.  Feels like a rushed job

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23 minutes ago, WahooManiac said:

I wonder if they ever truly considered the third possibility of just getting nothing back.  This notion that they had to get something for him,  imo,  is a fallacy.  

You compete at your highest chances for a few years,  and then just let him go FA. This deal could've just as easily been done at the deadline.  Feels like a rushed job

Craig Edwards
2:55
They would have gotten a lot less at midseason, I think. Position players just don't seem to command a ton with two months of the season left to go. The main benefit is getting that production all season long. Pitching acquisitions on almost all teams are taking the spot of a replacement level or worse player plus oversized in importance in the playoffs which leads to better returns. If the Red Sox were going to trade Betts, now was definitely the time to do it.
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1 hour ago, WahooManiac said:

I wonder if they ever truly considered the third possibility of just getting nothing back.  This notion that they had to get something for him,  imo,  is a fallacy.  

You compete at your highest chances for a few years,  and then just let him go FA. This deal could've just as easily been done at the deadline.  Feels like a rushed job

 

I agree needing something back is a fallacy. I think in the NBA it makes more sense, because superstar players are much harder to make up and the championship picture is much more clear.

I dont necessarily agree with midseason though. Granted Machado isn't as good as Betts, the main prospect they got back for him was certainly a lesser asset than Verdugo and potentially Graterol too.  

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4 hours ago, OaksterDan said:

The Sox probably aren't going broke if they sign Mookie to a 10/40 contract. The draft picks are of arguable value.  IMO it's likely that all of the draft picks you'd lose due to retaining Mookie, combined, will never reproduce his value. 

He has no value after 2020 to the Sox.  I'd rather sign a couple of Devers types with a bigger int'l pool allotment and get a good prospect or two so the Red Sox will exist as a contender down the line instead of gorging on fast food 2020 and losing out on even making the playoffs or at best losing in the first round to the Yankees.

3 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

bold prediction.  Romon Laureano has a better year than mookie betts

Oh please make it so.  On behalf of my fantasy league's future I thank you.  🙂

2 hours ago, WahooManiac said:

I wonder if they ever truly considered the third possibility of just getting nothing back.  This notion that they had to get something for him,  imo,  is a fallacy. 

Who plays in the OF for the Red Sox next year?  There are no outfielders ready to come up. The farm has no wheat to harvest, no veggies to pick.  They would have to sign a FA and go over the cap again and get the farm even more desolate.  I am not prepared to see the Sox end up third in the AL East every year for the next decade or fourth even with Toronto slowly improving.

Getting Verdugo is huge.  Under team control for years to come before he become a FA.  Has class A throwing arm perfect for right field and can hit 20 homers and plenty of doubles with real good average.  That reminds me a lot of what Dwight Evans did and I'll take Evans 2.0 any day.

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41 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

And Rotoworld Blurb Guy must have his say too:

Quote

Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports that some involved in the Mookie Betts three-way trade believe that the deal is no longer a certainty.

Heyman reports that the Red Sox are trying to reconfigure the deal to acquire more than prospect Brusdar Graterol from the Twins after medical concerns arose over Graterol's medial review. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that the Dodgers are trying to acquire another prospect to send in the deal, as Boston now believes that Graterol is more likely to be a reliever than a future part of their starting rotation. This also impacts the Joc Pederson trade to the Angels, as that deal can't be made until the Dodgers have acquired the former MVP. Heyman writes that there's "still hope" of this blockbuster getting done -- and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com writes that it's more likely to get done than not -- but it's far less of the foregone conclusion that it appeared to be on Tuesday night.

Source: Jon Heyman on Twitter                  Feb 6, 2020, 9:15 PM ET

This sounds more of a complicated mess hour by hour.

And the Dodgers already have a ton of prospects at all sorts of levels and ranges they could trade to the Sox directly but they are now trying to acquire another one instead?  And does this mean Minnesota now is Maeda-less and out of it?

This is harder to figure out than how a damn caucus works.

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3 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

And Rotoworld Blurb Guy must have his say too:

This sounds more of a complicated mess hour by hour.

And the Dodgers already have a ton of prospects at all sorts of levels and ranges but they are now trying to acquire another one?  And is Minnesota now Maeda-less forever?  This is harder to figure out than how a damn caucus works.

"Boston now believes that Graterol is more likely to be a reliever..."

So they didnt think this when they made the trade? They must have been reading this thread after the trade was near official and learned that they may have screwed the pooch. 

Amateur hour. 

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Just now, 2ndCitySox said:

"Boston now believes that Graterol is more likely to be a reliever..."

So they didnt think this when they made the trade? They must have been reading this thread after the trade was near official and learned that they may have screwed the pooch. 

Amateur hour. 

No Minnesota thought eventually they would turn him into a starter too though not this year.  Boston saw something in his medical folder that lead them to believe that would never happen.

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6 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

No Minnesota thought eventually they would turn him into a starter too though not this year.  Boston saw something in his medical folder that lead them to believe that would never happen.

They were planning on keeping him in the BP next year before the trade. Where he is only throwing his FB/SL exclusively. If they wanted to mold him as a starter. He wouldn't be ditching his change up.

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