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Giancarlo Stanton 2020 Outlook


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Awful, injury riddled season, just terrible. Depth Charts and Steamer have him putting up monster numbers in 2020. I just don't know what to think about this guy. 2 FULL back to back seasons (MVP) and now he's a major injury risk again. His 23.6 K% in that MVP 2017 season is a clear outlier at this point. Just imagine that 2017 version of him in this Yankee lineup/stadium...

 

 

 

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Last year he had a bicep, shoulder, calf, knee, and quad injury.  A true 5 category powerhouse in Injury-only leagues.  

I’d like to congratulate him for making it to August before hitting the IL this year

Ahhh the first Giancarlo IL stint of the season During these crazy times, it’s always good to have something you can count on

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3 minutes ago, bigbluecrew56 said:

Maybe in the teens of the draft but one of my most notable do not draft players. 

like 17? or 17th round?

 

i got him in the 5th in rotoworld mock.  i think thats great value

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53 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Stanton with juiced balls is a dream. We’re looking at legit 60 HR upper end. Conservative Steamer projecting 50 HR.  Even if he’s not healthy, 400 AB could easily put up 35 HR and make him not a wasted pick. 

 

I agree with this - Stanton hit 59 HR in Miami pre-juiced ball. So theoretically with the juiced ball and playing in Yankee stadium 60+ HR is very feasible. The upside here could be crazy good, like, league winning good. Obviously the downside could be tough but most likely if he can play 100 games he still will be very productive. It will be interesting how the Yankees lineup shakes up. Right now they have Miguel Andujar, Luke Voit, and Clint Frazier - all guys that will likely need a significant amount of DH time. If they can free up the DH spot and let Stanton be the main DH, it could really help him out. I'd be surprised if all 3 of those guys are still on the team on Opening Day.

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1 hour ago, bigbluecrew56 said:

Maybe in the teens of the draft but one of my most notable do not draft players. 

Good call.  Unless the ball comes back to 2016 standards an old-timey, flat footed power hitter like Stanton has lost a LOT of value compared to the recent past when 30+ homers in a season was not as common.  But with everyone including the bat boy hitting 20+ and just kind of good players hitting 30+ then Stanton and his endless injuries is no longer a most own commodity.  Especially in very early rounds where picking him would be a waste in my opinion.  Right now finding good pitching say is far more valuable because of the juiced balls.

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As a Steamer-o-phile I have to be in on this guy at the current price. Current projection is 52 HR/ 109 R/ 123 RBI with a .261 average. HR and RBI are the highest projected of anyone. Second most HR projected is Trout with 44. Second most RBI is JD with 117. Run total is 4th behind Trout, Springer and Betts. I get the trepidation because of the floor, but the ceiling is so high as well.  This is the kind of player (established vet still in prime coming off injury) where value can be had. I'll take the risk at the current price point. 

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On 12/9/2019 at 1:39 PM, jfazz23 said:

like 17? or 17th round?

 

i got him in the 5th in rotoworld mock.  i think thats great value

I'm talking any round after 10. I'm dead serious. Go ahead and shoot yourself in the foot all you want. I'll sit back late and draft Matt Olsen at the perfect price. So many power guys will come at a better value. I'd even take 100 year old Cruz over Stanton. 

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Right now Stanton’s NFBC ADP is 54. That’s too high for me. I can take Eugenio Suarez, Matt Olson, Joey Gallo or Jorge Soler after him. Why take a huge gamble there’s so many safer bets for 40+ HR available?

At some point his upside will dwarf everyone else out there, but I don’t see that until about pick 80.

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29 minutes ago, SpartyOn4 said:

Right now Stanton’s NFBC ADP is 54. That’s too high for me. I can take Eugenio Suarez, Matt Olson, Joey Gallo or Jorge Soler after him. Why take a huge gamble there’s so many safer bets for 40+ HR available?

At some point his upside will dwarf everyone else out there, but I don’t see that until about pick 80.

 

That's the big question- How much discount do you need to draft Stanton?  For me first 50 is not enough of a discount right now, but after that I'm OK taking the risk for the potential first round upside. Understand if someone else doesn't ever want to take the risk under any circumstances.  But important to note that no player has 0 injury risk.  Heck several of the guys you list have missed significant time the last couple of years. It's definitely prudent to assign a higher risk to Stanton, question is how much more?   He is one where how he looks health wise in ST could impact my threshold significantly. The other variable in terms of risk tolerance is how many leagues you play in. If I were to only play in one or two I might not take on the risk. But if you are like me and play in several leagues, having a share or two of Stanton in case he hits is more tolerable (and fun if it works out).

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5 hours ago, SpartyOn4 said:

Right now Stanton’s NFBC ADP is 54. That’s too high for me. I can take Eugenio Suarez, Matt Olson, Joey Gallo or Jorge Soler after him. Why take a huge gamble there’s so many safer bets for 40+ HR available?

At some point his upside will dwarf everyone else out there, but I don’t see that until about pick 80.

 

The gamble is worth it because he has a legitimate shot for 50+ and maybe even 60. He's also in a better stadium and lineup than most other players. If he can put together a healthy season he will threaten 60 HR. That's why he is being picked around mid 50's. If the Yankees free up the DH spot I will be all over Stanton this year. Right now, he's someone I'd hope to have a share of but not be all over my teams.

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1 hour ago, Sidearmer said:

The gamble is worth it because he has a legitimate shot for 50+ and maybe even 60. He's also in a better stadium and lineup than most other players. If he can put together a healthy season he will threaten 60 HR. That's why he is being picked around mid 50's. If the Yankees free up the DH spot I will be all over Stanton this year. Right now, he's someone I'd hope to have a share of but not be all over my teams.

Suarez the Forgotten One fell one homer shy of 50 last year with 103 RBIs.  I would way way rather have him plus his 3B eligibility and durability.

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6 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Suarez the Forgotten One fell one homer shy of 50 last year with 103 RBIs.  I would way way rather have him plus his 3B eligibility and durability.

 

And his ADP is a full round above Stanton right now. I'd argue that last season is Suarez's ceiling while if Stanton is just healthy he will be around those numbers with one of his routine years, and can surpass it with a strong year.

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I wonder if the Yanks have any say over his training routine. I've been saying the dude's too jacked. He needs flexibility not the power to hit the ball 500 feet instead of 450 feet. 

I haven't followed baseball closely. I think I saw a headline that said juiced balls to continue next year. True?

If yes, Stanton doesn't give you much of an edge. 

Speed is where the difference is made.

 

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11 minutes ago, papasmurf said:

I wonder if the Yanks have any say over his training routine. I've been saying the dude's too jacked. He needs flexibility not the power to hit the ball 500 feet instead of 450 feet. 

I haven't followed baseball closely. I think I saw a headline that said juiced balls to continue next year. True?

If yes, Stanton doesn't give you much of an edge. 

Speed is where the difference is made.

 

 

He hit 59 in Marlins park pre-juiced ball. If he gets to that level and hits 65 in Yankee Stadium with a juiced ball, that is surely a differentiator. It may sound outlandish but 65 HR is certainly in the range of possibilities for Stanton this year.

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I find it interesting that Stanton’s ADP has fluctuated so greatly over the last several years while going into each year he’s been basically the same player - a guy with 50-60hr upside with a propensity for injuries. Some years he’s being drafted in the middle of the first round and now this year he’s got an ADP around 55. To me it seems the fantasy community is relying too much on what he did the prior year. Regardless of what he did the prior year, my Stanton flow chart is pretty simple: 1st or 2nd round ADP ——-> pass. 3rd round ADP——-> definitely own some shares. 4th or later ADP——-> yes, please.

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On 12/16/2019 at 9:19 AM, Sidearmer said:

 

He hit 59 in Marlins park pre-juiced ball. If he gets to that level and hits 65 in Yankee Stadium with a juiced ball, that is surely a differentiator. It may sound outlandish but 65 HR is certainly in the range of possibilities for Stanton this year.

His season with the Marlins was an outlier.  He’s the type of personality that thrives off hitting in front of 14 fans in Miami.  NY is a different animal and they’re already disgruntled with him.  To point above about overtraining, we’ve seen guys like Cespedes overtrain and look what has happened to his body.  He played in 18 games and racked up a massive amount of ailments as Kid22 alluded to.  I don’t know how you can conceivably have any faith in drafting him within the top 60 picks.  It’s a low % dart throw of a pick.

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