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Giancarlo Stanton 2020 Outlook


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On 12/16/2019 at 11:19 AM, Sidearmer said:

 

He hit 59 in Marlins park pre-juiced ball. If he gets to that level and hits 65 in Yankee Stadium with a juiced ball, that is surely a differentiator. It may sound outlandish but 65 HR is certainly in the range of possibilities for Stanton this year.

60 HR has been reached what, 6 times in the history of baseball?

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Last year he had a bicep, shoulder, calf, knee, and quad injury.  A true 5 category powerhouse in Injury-only leagues.  

I’d like to congratulate him for making it to August before hitting the IL this year

Ahhh the first Giancarlo IL stint of the season During these crazy times, it’s always good to have something you can count on

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All of the ballyhooed power and hes hit more than 38 homers once.  With where he’s going, you’re passing on a Kershaw, Paddack, Luis Castillo or Giolito... or speed like merrefield, Robles... or power like Eloy or Suarez for the 10% chance he hits 50 homers.  Btw, Suarez hit 49 last season.

Edited by kidtwentytwo
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13 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

60 HR has been reached what, 6 times in the history of baseball?

Yes, he won’t ever sniff that number again.  That was a fluke year.  Let bums in your league get fluffy over this loser.

Edited by Cmilne23
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On 12/22/2019 at 7:13 AM, meh2 said:

I find it interesting that Stanton’s ADP has fluctuated so greatly over the last several years while going into each year he’s been basically the same player - a guy with 50-60hr upside with a propensity for injuries. Some years he’s being drafted in the middle of the first round and now this year he’s got an ADP around 55. To me it seems the fantasy community is relying too much on what he did the prior year. Regardless of what he did the prior year, my Stanton flow chart is pretty simple: 1st or 2nd round ADP ——-> pass. 3rd round ADP——-> definitely own some shares. 4th or later ADP——-> yes, please.

 

This is a little thing called recency bias. This is true for fantasy players in regards to just about any player in any sport.

 

23 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

His season with the Marlins was an outlier.  He’s the type of personality that thrives off hitting in front of 14 fans in Miami.  NY is a different animal and they’re already disgruntled with him.  To point above about overtraining, we’ve seen guys like Cespedes overtrain and look what has happened to his body.  He played in 18 games and racked up a massive amount of ailments as Kid22 alluded to.  I don’t know how you can conceivably have any faith in drafting him within the top 60 picks.  It’s a low % dart throw of a pick.

 

I get where you are coming from with both of these takes, but to me I think they are overused and its too early to make that conclusion with Stanton. In his first year with the Yanks he had 38 HR, 100 RBI, 102 R, .343 OBP in a down year. So even if that's what his base level is as a Yankee, that's still very good and worthy of where he's getting drafted. That was pre-juiced ball. Tack on 5-10 more HR and you have a monster year. If he reverts back to Marlins form, than you've hit the nuts with him.

As for the injury, again, I think this is overused. Cespedes is an easy comp because NY but there's plenty of other workout warriors that have turned out fine. Bryce Harper plays just about every game. Yasiel Puig plays just about every game. Yandy Diaz faced some injuries but not related to body breaking down. There's plenty of others. Cespedes is also 4 years older than Stanton (assuming his age from Cuba is right, could be older). In Cespedes age 30 campaign he won the silver slugger - Giancarlo is entering his age 30 season.

He had a tough year with injuries, but there's no reason to completely write him off. He should have a pretty normal offseason so its not like these are lagging injuries. The Yankees will also be more aware of the situation and likely DH him a lot more which will only help him. If Yankees can move one of Andujar or Voit he will be set at DH and his value will go up.

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  • 4 weeks later...

I'm trying to take my rose-colored glasses off with Stanton. I've supported Stanton so much in the past because when he plays, he puts up a 130-150 wRC+ combined with MONSTER power. Now he's put into Yankee stadium, in one of the best lineups in baseball, it's so tempting. BUT the reality is over the last 8 seasons, he's only play in 125 games 3 times. Yes there were some 116, 119 and 123 seasons but the point is, he misses a month or two all the time. Last year he missed the whole season! I tried justifying to myself that they will DH him a ton and save him but he sprained his PCL last year just sliding into 3rd base. Also calf and hamstring problems just from running! I also believe he injured his bicep by swinging? Anyway, DH is no guarantee to Stanton's health. I'm starting to sway to the side of DND unless he comes with an extreme discount...the upside is still there but realistically he probably won't reach it due to health. Now that he's 30, perhaps the bat speed starts to slow down a little and those Ks creep up even more?

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Right now he’s going 61 on average.  If you’re taking a flier on a plus power bat wouldn’t you rather get Miguel Sano at 134?   Only 26, going on 27, coming off a 34 HR season in only 105 games.  Stacked lineup.  I don’t see any value with Stanton at 61.  Hell, Gallo at 80 give me him any day.  Unless that ADP goes closer to 90’s-100’s let him be someone else’s problem.  

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6 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

Right now he’s going 61 on average.  If you’re taking a flier on a plus power bat wouldn’t you rather get Miguel Sano at 134?   Only 26, going on 27, coming off a 34 HR season in only 105 games.  Stacked lineup.  I don’t see any value with Stanton at 61.  Hell, Gallo at 80 give me him any day.  Unless that ADP goes closer to 90’s-100’s let him be someone else’s problem.  

 

I'd argue his upside is way way higher than Sano and Gallo. Stanton has a much better lineup and much better park than them as well. I do like Sano and Gallo as potential sleepers too, but Stanton has top 5 hitter upside that Sano and Gallo just don't have.

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29 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

I'd argue his upside is way way higher than Sano and Gallo. Stanton has a much better lineup and much better park than them as well. I do like Sano and Gallo as potential sleepers too, but Stanton has top 5 hitter upside that Sano and Gallo just don't have.

I would definitely disagree there.  With no SBs I don’t see him sniffing top 5 upside. A lot of it’s environment, and surroundings.  Some guys like Stanton were meant to sit in Miami in front of 17 fans and hit baseballs.  I don’t think he’ll ever be up for the rigors of competing in market like NY.  He doesn’t have the personality or backbone.  Factor in injury risk, I just don’t see any reason to even target him before 90-100.  Zero point IMO.

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Borrowing some advice I heard from someone else on this forum who has had fantasy baseball success (sorry, do not recall who).

Leagues can be lost in the first five rounds of the draft but they can't be won.

Risk a high round pick on this guy to get what?  A couple of rounds of value?

Pass.

 

 

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55 minutes ago, B&F said:

Borrowing some advice I heard from someone else on this forum who has had fantasy baseball success (sorry, do not recall who).

Leagues can be lost in the first five rounds of the draft but they can't be won.

Risk a high round pick on this guy to get what?  A couple of rounds of value?

Pass.

 

 

Great Advice!

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6 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

 

I'd argue his upside is way way higher than Sano and Gallo. Stanton has a much better lineup and much better park than them as well. I do like Sano and Gallo as potential sleepers too, but Stanton has top 5 hitter upside that Sano and Gallo just don't have.


how is joey gallo even mentioned as a sleeper? Dude was amazing last yr pre injury.

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5 hours ago, B&F said:

Borrowing some advice I heard from someone else on this forum who has had fantasy baseball success (sorry, do not recall who).

Leagues can be lost in the first five rounds of the draft but they can't be won.

Risk a high round pick on this guy to get what?  A couple of rounds of value?

Pass.

 

 


folks taking Pete Alonso in rd 1 vs big don’t call me mike Stanton in rd 5. 🤫🤔

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14 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

I would definitely disagree there.  With no SBs I don’t see him sniffing top 5 upside. A lot of it’s environment, and surroundings.  Some guys like Stanton were meant to sit in Miami in front of 17 fans and hit baseballs.  I don’t think he’ll ever be up for the rigors of competing in market like NY.  He doesn’t have the personality or backbone.  Factor in injury risk, I just don’t see any reason to even target him before 90-100.  Zero point IMO.

 

I've said this before but its very early to make that conclusion. He hit 38 HR in 2018 as a Yankee with a .343 OBP. Not his best season but that's his only season of full health. And he played 158 games in 2018, one down injury year doesn't mean he's broken. This was also before juiced ball. If he plays 150 games and hits 55 HR with a .270 average he will be a top 10 player. Maybe top 5 was a bit aggressive, but the upside here continues to be understated by many.

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13 hours ago, B&F said:

Borrowing some advice I heard from someone else on this forum who has had fantasy baseball success (sorry, do not recall who).

Leagues can be lost in the first five rounds of the draft but they can't be won.

Risk a high round pick on this guy to get what?  A couple of rounds of value?

Pass.

 

I disagree with this wholeheartedly. Its very overused and doesn't make sense. Cody Bellinger probably won many leagues. Ronald Acuna probably won many leagues. Gerrit Cole probably won some leagues. There is still a lot of untapped upside to be had in rounds 3-5. Maybe in Round 1 you are trying to be more safe but being aggressive in round 3-5 isn't killing any teams.

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23 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

Right now he’s going 61 on average.  If you’re taking a flier on a plus power bat wouldn’t you rather get Miguel Sano at 134?   Only 26, going on 27, coming off a 34 HR season in only 105 games.  Stacked lineup.  I don’t see any value with Stanton at 61.  Hell, Gallo at 80 give me him any day.  Unless that ADP goes closer to 90’s-100’s let him be someone else’s problem.  

 

Possibly but both guys you mentioned have significantly higher whiff rates. Sano is projected to bat low in the new stacked twins lineup whereas Stanton is projected to bat cleanup in potentially the best lineup, not to mention Cruz will soak up all the DH appearances. Marwin  is going to get in the lineup a decent amount and Sano is likely to sit the most for him id think.

Sure you can say Sano is a better value than Sano but I think you can probably do similar comparisons with most early round players. Why get Arenado or Rendon when you can get Donaldson after pick 100 too.

 

Stanton's upside is much higher than Sano's. Stanton has the potential for 50 bombs and like 140 RBIs.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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30 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Possibly but both guys you mentioned have significantly higher whiff rates. Sano is projected to bat low in the new stacked twins lineup whereas Stanton is projected to bat cleanup in potentially the best lineup, not to mention Cruz will soak up all the DH appearances. Marwin  is going to get in the lineup a decent amount and Sano is likely to sit the most for him id think.

Sure you can say Sano is a better value than Sano but I think you can probably do similar comparisons with most early round players. Why get Arenado or Rendon when you can get Donaldson after pick 100 too.

 

Stanton's upside is much higher than Sano's. Stanton has the potential for 50 bombs and like 140 RBIs.

☝️ He gets it.

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42 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Possibly but both guys you mentioned have significantly higher whiff rates. Sano is projected to bat low in the new stacked twins lineup whereas Stanton is projected to bat cleanup in potentially the best lineup, not to mention Cruz will soak up all the DH appearances. Marwin  is going to get in the lineup a decent amount and Sano is likely to sit the most for him id think.

Sure you can say Sano is a better value than Sano but I think you can probably do similar comparisons with most early round players. Why get Arenado or Rendon when you can get Donaldson after pick 100 too.

 

Stanton's upside is much higher than Sano's. Stanton has the potential for 50 bombs and like 140 RBIs.


More like 60 bombs

 

50 bombs without a juiced ball in Marlins Park 

 

 

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Steamer has Stanton projected for 50 bombs. Seems like if he stays relatively healthy (big if these days) and within the mean of his batting profile then it’s reasonable to set the o/u there. Certainly 60 is within reach and wouldn’t be a surprise. Or he could slip on banana peel and miss half the season and start making videos with female singers or slow motion Gallagher gifs. Think risk is built into the price and at 61 it’s not a bad floor currently. If he shows up in ST and does good his adp will get more expensive. 

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