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Franmil Reyes 2020 Outlook


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This guy is a points league stripper. He rubs his HRs all up in your face and then you draft him and his strikeouts just empty your wallet before the Motley Crue song is over. All you're left with is

Franmil hit 37 homers as part of a major league baseball team last season. He was 23 years old and spent half the year in Petco Park.   This hype isnt just about his 2020 spring training, gu

Has anyone mentioned he has only 3 K in 27 ABs this spring?

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He is somewhat high risk.  He has great power, but his plate discipline is pretty mediocre.  When he makes good contact, the ball sails out of the ballpark, but he has some trouble making contact (his SwStr% is decently higher than even guys like Grichuk or Olson.)

So while he might be a .280 hitter with 40HR potential, he could easily become a .220 hitter struggling to hit 30HR, in which case your better off with somebody like Grichuk.  That high variance makes it a big gamble.

Obviously, there are a select few guys that can make that kind of profile work, especially if they have a little more patience.  Nelson Cruz is a perfect example

Edited by Hellgrammite
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2 hours ago, Hellgrammite said:

He is somewhat high risk.  He has great power, but his plate discipline is pretty mediocre.  When he makes good contact, the ball sails out of the ballpark, but he has some trouble making contact (his SwStr% is decently higher than even guys like Grichuk or Olson.)

So while he might be a .280 hitter with 40HR potential, he could easily become a .220 hitter struggling to hit 30HR, in which case your better off with somebody like Grichuk.  That high variance makes it a big gamble.

Obviously, there are a select few guys that can make that kind of profile work, especially if they have a little more patience.  Nelson Cruz is a perfect example

With how hard his contact is the .220avg doesn’t seem reasonable unless he just nose dives off a cliff which any pro ball player can theoretically do. He carried a .280babip last year and still hit .250 and with how hard is contact is I don’t see it going much lower than that in his prime years. He’s got a career xBA and xSLG of like .263/.520. He doesn’t offer you much in the steals/runs dept which is always a hype killer in dynasties  

The nelly comp is pretty good and he really is just slightly less aggressive than Franmil is, in his second full season. You can afford some swing and miss in your game when you’re consistently averaging a 93mph+ exit velocity which is usually 97th percentile or better and they both have done just that. 

Edited by KrunK
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1 hour ago, KrunK said:

With how hard his contact is the .220avg doesn’t seem reasonable unless he just nose dives off a cliff which any pro ball player can theoretically do. He carried a .280babip last year and still hit .250 and with how hard is contact is I don’t see it going much lower than that in his prime years. He’s got a career xBA and xSLG of like .263/.520. He doesn’t offer you much in the steals/runs dept which is always a hype killer in dynasties  

The nelly comp is pretty good and he really is just slightly less aggressive than Franmil is, in his second full season. You can afford some swing and miss in your game when you’re consistently averaging a 93mph+ exit velocity which is usually 97th percentile or better and they both have done just that. 

 

Franmil best case scenario is Cruz, but his profile is currently leaning towards Chris Davis as well.  While any player can fall off a cliff theoretically....few can reach the potential Cruz has reached in his career.  You can hit the ball hard, but as Chris Davis shows a low .200s batting average is possible to start becoming the norm suddenly.  I am a little nervous about the high swing/miss in Franmil's profile, something Nelly never really  experienced in his long career.

Franmil might keep evolving and retool to overcome this, or he could exploited a bit more by pitching.  I do really like him though, but realize his realistic outcome is that he becomes a generic power bat that you can get off waivers every year (see Teoscar Hernández.)

 

 

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Why is no one talking about the fact that this guy has been waiver wire gold over the last two weeks? Multiple massive games. I'm sure he will cool down, but I'll take the Ks if he keeps having HUGE games. This has to be his 5th or 6th game like this.

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5 hours ago, Baloo said:

Why is no one talking about the fact that this guy has been waiver wire gold over the last two weeks? Multiple massive games. I'm sure he will cool down, but I'll take the Ks if he keeps having HUGE games. This has to be his 5th or 6th game like this.

Cause he never should have been on any waiver wire

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6 hours ago, Baloo said:

Why is no one talking about the fact that this guy has been waiver wire gold over the last two weeks? Multiple massive games. I'm sure he will cool down, but I'll take the Ks if he keeps having HUGE games. This has to be his 5th or 6th game like this.

Its because we get accustomed to the wild franimal doing wild franimal things- 10 hits in his last 13 at bats with 1HR and 4 doubles.

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15 hours ago, Baloo said:

Why is no one talking about the fact that this guy has been waiver wire gold over the last two weeks? Multiple massive games. I'm sure he will cool down, but I'll take the Ks if he keeps having HUGE games. This has to be his 5th or 6th game like this.

 

In what world was he WW??

 

He was an AL favorite to be home run leader in Vegas before the season started. 

 

Scoop him up and never let him go, he is Mr Hard Contact. 

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16 hours ago, Baloo said:

Why is no one talking about the fact that this guy has been waiver wire gold over the last two weeks? Multiple massive games. I'm sure he will cool down, but I'll take the Ks if he keeps having HUGE games. This has to be his 5th or 6th game like this.


Waiver wire gold? Franmil Reyes? What??? Unless you’re talking about last season (2019) or a league this year where one is/was participating in a shallow roster, oh I dunno, FOUR team league...maybe. Otherwise, in no world was - nor should he have been - Franmil Reyes available on waivers.

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