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Lance Lynn 2020 Outlook


fawkes_mulder
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In 2019 Lance Lynn posted a career high in average fastball velocity. In March it was 93.87 mph and slowly escalated throughout the year to an average fastball velocity of 95.49 mph in September 2019.

For Lynn's whole career, he's been a fastball only pitcher, and pre Tommy John, he was effective with this strategy. In 2019 he used his cutter and curveball to staggering effectiveness.

Lance Lynn ended 2019 with a career high 208.1 innings, a career high 246 K, and a rock solid 3.66 ERA/1.22 WHIP. He was undoubtedly a top 20 pitcher, and #17 among SP on ESPN's 5x5 player rater (I do not include closer Liam Hendricks).

So why is he being disrespected? His FIP (3.13), xFIP (3.85), and SIERA (3.83) all suggest there's no red flags about the ERA. His 21.4 k-bb% was a career best. On both counts, 2019 Lynn walked less batters and struck out more batters than he ever has in his career.

This does not look like a lucky profile to me.

Yet he's currently the 48th pitcher being drafted in NFBC leagues and 41st SP.

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Its a bit odd, he is not that old, and has been really reliable - 7 straight seasons where he had at least 31 starts - Most years his ERA is pretty solid although his WHIP not so much - I think Texas new park will probably be a slight improvement for pitchers but that remains to be seen.  

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I think he’s being overlooked as a boring, older guy, but Lynn is a great value right now and one of the many reasons I like loading up on hitters early in drafts. I don’t know how the new ballpark is going to play, but I’m of the belief the retractable roof is going to help Texas pitchers in those hot summer nights.

 

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5 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

High. Most pitchers dont pitch under a 2 ERA.

 

Sadly, I agree, but you hope he can keep it rolling. He's been one of the best draft day values in fantasy. Even if those peripherals normalize, his ability to pitch tons of innings and strike people out will be helpful. Just, yeah, as mentioned...sucks about their terrible offense.

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