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Mark Canha 2020 Outlook


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Career year in 2019: 26 HR, .396 OBP in under 500 plate appearances. Started walking a ton last year and benefited from the juiced ball it seems. He should have full playing time entering the year in the OF, could also spell Matt Olson at 1B against some LHP.

Taking a deeper look, his HR/FB% did spike, however, this coincided with career highs in pull % and hard contact %. His O-swing% and O-swing contact % were also career bests, supporting the bump in average and OBP.

While he is 30 now, he did once have some hype as a prospect so there is some pedigree here. His approach took the next level in 2019 and it resulted in that long awaited potential showing up.

Steamer has him conservatively at 25 HR in 570 plate appearances. This will be easy value at where his ADP currently is (250+). If your league counts OBP he should be able to produce an elite number there as well. If he can continue to make improvements with his approach he should hover around .270 - .280 average range, which is fine. He was batting mostly 4th and 5th to end the season so he should be able to generate a strong RBI and R number. And overall this lineup is solid.

One risk that will come into play is getting platooned, especially as a RHB. Seth Brown looked decent last year in his time in the OF and Piscotty is servicable. Ramon Laureano is locked in at CF and Khris Davis is locked in at DH. Chad Pinder should get semi consistent ABs. If Canha just produces, this won't matter and he will play everyday. This uncertainty will keep his price down and make an easy value. I find this similar to Jose Martinez a few years ago and Luke Voit last year. At this price, bet on the talent and the playing time will come.

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4 hours ago, LoGo said:

Interestingly enough, he performed far better against RHP than LHP in 2019.

 

Canha.jpg

 

He's been like that most of his career. When I said spelling Olson it was more because Olson is terrible against LHP.

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