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Anthony DeSclafani 2020 Outlook


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Anthony had a semi-breakout in 2019, posting a 3.89 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, along with a 9.02 K/9 in 166 IP. If you look under the hood, there was definitely some luck involved, but he did make considerable improvements as well. He had a career highs in velocity across all of his offerings, per Brooks Baseball:

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Essentially a full tick on his fastball along with 2 ticks on his slider and curveball. This was likely what drove a career high in K/9.

Now for the luck side, he enjoyed a career low BABIP of .273, accompanied with more flyballs and a decreased HR/FB rate. He did show improvements in hard hit % but overall his SIERA and xFIP checked in at 4.30, which are actually both career highs for him. He's going to struggle with the HR ball with this profile and he pitches in GABP during the juiced ball era, not a great combo.

As of now he has an ADP is essentially non-existant. This seems reasonable to me, but there is some upside here. To be clear, he probably has to get lucky to be valuable. If he can get lucky with the HR ball, he can pretty easily deliver a mid 3s ERA with a K per inning. This can also turn south and he can be killed by HR. Overall, I think he's worth a shot at this position as you can cut bait pretty easily at this price. He has a much better upside then some guys being picked before or around him IMO (Dakota Hudson, Joe Musgrove, Jose Urquidy, Yonny Cirinos, Sandy Alcantara, etc.)

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I'd quibble on Musgrove and Urquidy having less upside, but otherwise, I love the value here.  He's always had the stuff to be a top 50 SP, but has been done in by injuries, the limitations of his secondary offerings, etc.  The team context is on the rise, and though the ballpark will of course cap his ceiling if the ball remains the same, he could be among the greatest beneficiaries of a return to a more 2018-ish ball, which could offset any regression in the luck metrics.

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I liked what I saw from him last year, and was looking at him anyway in NL-Only, but now given the unbalanced schedule, I think he's gotta be upgraded to consideration in 12+ Mixed.

Reds are likely one of the better teams in the "Centrals", and they get a LOT of crap teams to pound on.  I think he's a buy on the cheap w/ good upside for this year.

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19 minutes ago, Heretic said:

I liked what I saw from him last year, and was looking at him anyway in NL-Only, but now given the unbalanced schedule, I think he's gotta be upgraded to consideration in 12+ Mixed.

Reds are likely one of the better teams in the "Centrals", and they get a LOT of crap teams to pound on.  I think he's a buy on the cheap w/ good upside for this year.

Which teams?  You mean the AL Central teams?  Detroit who they only face six times I give you.  But KC has a few decent hitters.  And I would NOT want my pitcher to face the White Sox these days.  Nor the Twins.  Cleveland has Lindor still.  Pirates are only walkover hitting team in NL Central.

I think the Central may favor hitters more in that pitching may be a hair weaker in depth at least overall.  But even then it is hard to tell.

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People keep talking about him like he’s merely stream-worthy, but if you look at his numbers over the past 5 years, particularly on a putrid Cincinnati Reds team, he’s definitely a guy who should be owned in 12 team leagues.  Based on his track record, I’m not all that concerned.  We’re not talking eye-popping peripherals, but they’re pretty respectable.  

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8 hours ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

People keep talking about him like he’s merely stream-worthy, but if you look at his numbers over the past 5 years, particularly on a putrid Cincinnati Reds team, he’s definitely a guy who should be owned in 12 team leagues.  Based on his track record, I’m not all that concerned.  We’re not talking eye-popping peripherals, but they’re pretty respectable.  

agree, but in a 60 game season, roto or H2H, last night hurt.

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