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2020 Offseason Closer Thread


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12 minutes ago, TheForearmShiver said:

Rays just traded Pagan to the Padres. Was this move to put Nick Anderson firmly in as the main closer? With a 42% K-rate and 15k/9, it seems like many believe he’s a top closer once given the shot. Thoughts?

 

He's going to get some saves, but I can't trust the Rays to settle on one guy.  Their pen usage was next to impossible to predict from Mar-July last year. They eventually did settle on Pagan last year (after 3-4 months) and iirc that was primarily because their other options were hurt.  

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8 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

 

He's going to get some saves, but I can't trust the Rays to settle on one guy.  Their pen usage was next to impossible to predict from Mar-July last year. They eventually did settle on Pagan last year (after 3-4 months) and iirc that was primarily because their other options were hurt.  

Castillo, Drake, and Poche were all legitimate options that Cash didn't use the second half of the year.  I'm scared like everyone else but there are just as many reasons to believe Anderson is the new closer than there are that it's a likely committee. Hope it keeps Anderson price down though.

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17 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

 

He's going to get some saves, but I can't trust the Rays to settle on one guy.  Their pen usage was next to impossible to predict from Mar-July last year. They eventually did settle on Pagan last year (after 3-4 months) and iirc that was primarily because their other options were hurt.  

I think Anderson will be the primary closer

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11 hours ago, B&F said:

I too am in the Anderson fan club. 

Definitely some value where he is being picked.  ADP is ~240.  I will reach a round or even two for him.

 

That will rise up substantially after the trade. Will be hard to gauge his value over until we have some more data on him over next few weeks.

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12 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

That will rise up substantially after the trade. Will be hard to gauge his value over until we have some more data on him over next few weeks.

I think it’s already where Pagain is going. Probably could inch up higher. If you’re convinced he’ll be the guy like Pagan then 110ish makes sense. If he’s part of committee but lead guy then closer to 190. That’s why I think the avg will be close to where Pagan was going.

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2 hours ago, Magoo said:

I think it’s already where Pagain is going. Probably could inch up higher. If you’re convinced he’ll be the guy like Pagan then 110ish makes sense. If he’s part of committee but lead guy then closer to 190. That’s why I think the avg will be close to where Pagan was going.

 

2 hours ago, Whizzinator said:

Agreed, this is a case where what the manager says (and to a degree how he's used later in the spring) will have a huge impact on where he is drafted/valued.

If TB were to come out and say "He is the full time closer" tomorrow, in my mind he'd be top 10 and with upside of top-3.

 

My concern is that they will rotate in an out guys and Anderson could end up being a very expensive low save reliever. Hard to tell. I liked him before the trade as a shut down reliever with potential for some saves but now he will probably be too expensive for me. As good as he can be there are other high K relievers out there with more established roles where he will likely end up being priced.

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34 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

 

My concern is that they will rotate in an out guys and Anderson could end up being a very expensive low save reliever. Hard to tell. I liked him before the trade as a shut down reliever with potential for some saves but now he will probably be too expensive for me. As good as he can be there are other high K relievers out there with more established roles where he will likely end up being priced.

Did they rotate Pagan out with Castillo second half? No

 

Committee fear is legit but it’s just likely it would be one guy like Pagan. Having said that, the committee narrative has taken on a life of its own. This means you buy if you like him. Gamble yes but a smart one. 

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Nick Anderson closed zero games for the Rays last year.  It’s not going to be a surprise if they play musical closers again this year.   I think this is another case of us (media) anointing a guy due to his exciting potential.  There’s a few every season.  If I took him, I think I’d want a fall back option.  Maybe him and two other closers.  

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2 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

My concern is that they will rotate in an out guys and Anderson could end up being a very expensive low save reliever. Hard to tell. I liked him before the trade as a shut down reliever with potential for some saves but now he will probably be too expensive for me. As good as he can be there are other high K relievers out there with more established roles where he will likely end up being priced.

 

Agreed, that is the risk....and why evidence this spring is going to be a huge factor in where he is drafted.     The upside is right up there based on last year, but one cannot have supreme confidence in the Rays usage until we hear something directly from the manager.  He could easily be some old-school fireman who gets 10 saves 8-10 wins and 80 innings (with 120 ks)...which will be valuable but not category-wise what people are going to pay for.

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3 hours ago, Magoo said:

Did they rotate Pagan out with Castillo second half? No

 

Committee fear is legit but it’s just likely it would be one guy like Pagan. Having said that, the committee narrative has taken on a life of its own. This means you buy if you like him. Gamble yes but a smart one. 

 

Yes in just the second half. They were rotating in the first half. And the past few years they've had a constant rotation until Pagan. I love Anderson and I was hoping to get him cheap, I just think the hype will get out of control. The strikeouts help but the main goal when you get your first one or two closers should be saves. I have at least 15 guys that have a strong K rate that are going to be locked into closer roles. Then another 5 or so that have lesser K rates but are locked into the role. At this point, I wouldn't take Anderson above any of those guys, which likely means I'm out.

I think this approach is reasonable - no one is winning their league based on an elite closer. On the other hand, you could end up chasing saves all year if you stick to unproven arms.

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47 minutes ago, Phreedom32 said:

So Urena to the rotation and Jarlin is no longer a Marlin...Kintzler signed...who’s the closer in Miami gonna be folks? Kintzler, Stanek? Someone cool I haven’t even thought of before?


stanek or kintzler are my bets in that order 

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These closer threads are going to be like 190 pages each month.  Half the jobs in league look unsettled with absolute losers in running in many of them.  The days of the stud stand alone closer look long gone.  

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26 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

These closer threads are going to be like 190 pages each month.  Half the jobs in league look unsettled with absolute losers in running in many of them.  The days of the stud stand alone closer look long gone.  

 

The 2020 March / April closer thread is going to be one for the ages.

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2 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

 

Yes in just the second half. They were rotating in the first half. And the past few years they've had a constant rotation until Pagan. I love Anderson and I was hoping to get him cheap, I just think the hype will get out of control. The strikeouts help but the main goal when you get your first one or two closers should be saves. I have at least 15 guys that have a strong K rate that are going to be locked into closer roles. Then another 5 or so that have lesser K rates but are locked into the role. At this point, I wouldn't take Anderson above any of those guys, which likely means I'm out.

I think this approach is reasonable - no one is winning their league based on an elite closer. On the other hand, you could end up chasing saves all year if you stick to unproven arms.

Past few years? Alex Colome didn’t share.


Fortune favors the bold like Hader last year. 

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Everyone is betting on Nick Anderson but despite his amazing performance he got zero (0) save chances last year.  On the other hand, Castillo and Alvarado both got many opps and both have filthy stuff.  I love Anderson as a guy to add Ks and bring down ratios, but betting on him being the closer in TB is the definition of chasing saves.  A guy like Betances could return Anderson K/ERA/WHIP and is basically free in almost all leagues.

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