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Vladimir Guerrero Jr 2020 Outlook


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2 minutes ago, meh2 said:

That regret faded pretty quickly. Fun facts: Vlad finished with the 10th highest ground ball rate in all of baseball last year. He’s moving up the leaderboard as this year he’s up to 5th! He’s looking more and more like a right-handed, slower, heavier Eric Hosmer than the best young hitting prospect in baseball.

It's just sad because everyone fawns over him and instead of improving on his physical form it just gets worse.  This guy needs a dietitian following him around. 

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What’s probably more laughable is quoting a players’ WAR after 89 PAs.

Pretty good for a 20 year old 

You seem to be conflating fantasy and reality. For fantasy, he was way over drafted and will likely be again this season. We agree. For a 20 year-old in the majors, he had a fantastic season, a

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2 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

What player in the minors for the Blue Jays should have Vlad's job?  

 

People act like they have a waiver wire where they can just pick up Evan Longoria or Donnavan Solano for free just to replace Vlad to put up. slightly better (if even) short term stats rather than develop one of their best young pieces.

Saying Vlad should be in the minors is laughable. 

yea it's laughable to suggest a guy with negative WAR shouldn't be in the majors. 

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12 minutes ago, IDGAFOS said:

yea it's laughable to suggest a guy with negative WAR shouldn't be in the majors. 

 

You do realize because of how WAR works there will always be players with negative WAR in the majors? And if you kicked them all out of the league and replaced them, there would be new players with negative war from that time forward? It's just math.

Yes some players shouldn't be in the majors, Vlad ain't one of them.

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1 hour ago, Evincar said:

 

Speaking of Moncada, Vlad should not have been drafted over him in any league.

Can't disagree with that. Vlad still has a lot of leftover prospect shine and finished the season better than he started it, but there was no reason to believe he'd be a better player than Moncada in 2020.

That said, Vladdy is a good buy low proposition right now. Very good EV, terribly low BABIP. If he starts to lift the ball instead of pounding it into the ground he can turn things around very quickly.

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2 hours ago, bradwatson said:

This thread is hilarious. I'm going to take screenshots to laugh at when Vlad turns into a top 5 player. [...] 

I don't think I question IF he can be amazing. There are a lot more question marks now then ever. He hits balls in the ground like Hosmer. His body type is very condusive to breaking down. Not worried yet but he has ? marks.

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4 hours ago, B&F said:

It concerns me when I hear he needs a swing change.  Easier said than done.  

While true, we see it happen every year, and often with guys much older. It's not as drastic or difficult, IMO, as a pitcher making similarish changes to their mechanics (a la 2019 Giolito).

 

1 hour ago, Fielder1831 said:

I don't think I question IF he can be amazing. There are a lot more question marks now then ever. He hits balls in the ground like Hosmer. His body type is very condusive to breaking down. Not worried yet but he has ? marks.

Baseball has had its fair share of fatties that mash. I look at a guy like Prince Fielder as an example of a reasonable best case outcome. His 23-29 yo seasons were pretty legit, and he was very durable during that time. Now bad-body guys in their 30s? That's a whole 'nother conversation.

 

1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

I like him and don't think he will be a top 5 player. Super hard to be a top 5 player without steals. 

If anyone thought he was going to be a top 5 fantasy player....they haven't really been paying attention. You're 100% correct that w/o steals, it's near impossible. I just assumed he was drafted and valued so highly because a .300 BA/.300 ISO hitter is a super-commodity, and he was projected as having that sort of ceiling, and hitting it quickly -- if not in year one, then very soon after.

The super young guys that have a chance at cracking the top 5 in the next couple years are the FTJs and Roberts of the world -- no category weaknesses and yes, a nice double digit number in the SB column.

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On 8/20/2020 at 4:04 PM, IDGAFOS said:

vladito is one dimensional and not performing at his one dimension - he shouldn't be in the majors right now it's that simple.

 

 

 

5th hardest hit ball of anyone this season. Probably should be in the minors though. So much talent in the minors and on their team that he's blocking.

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7 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

 

 

5th hardest hit ball of anyone this season. Probably should be in the minors though. So much talent in the minors and on their team that he's blocking.

How many points does your league give for "hard hits"?

Maybe I need to change my settings.

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53 minutes ago, itslarry said:

How many points does your league give for "hard hits"?

Maybe I need to change my settings.

It was a home run....... does your league count home runs, runs scored, and/or avg/obp/ops?

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Things I believe to be true about Vlad Jr:

1. He hits the ball really damn hard.

2. He has excellent plate discipline and contact ability and what he's doing hitting-wise at age 21 is pretty impressive.

3. He obviously doesn't belong in the minors and will never see an at bat there again outside of a rehab assignment.

4. He has a significant launch angle problem that is holding him back from reaching his potential.

5. Drafting him in the top 80 in redrafts was a mistake and I'm not bullish on him coming near returning value this year.

6. With a launch angle adjustment to 10-15 degrees, I still see elite upside with a ceiling of prime Miggy or Pujols

7. I have no idea when that launch angle adjustment will occur. He's only 21 and has his whole career in front of him but drafting him hoping for a correction seems like a gamble when the downside is what we're seeing this year (a player ranked outside the top 400 on player raters) 

8. I'm not drafting him in redrafts until I see some signs that he is fixing his launch angle problem unless the fantasy community starts properly pricing him.

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1 hour ago, itslarry said:

How many points does your league give for "hard hits"?

Maybe I need to change my settings.

 

As someone else pointed out, the home run usually plays. The hard hit and and other statcast metrics tend to. speak to underlying skills.  Poor fantas players just. look at current roto numbers of players and assume thats who they are and will continue to be, especially in a short season. It's a laughable take to say Vlad should be in the minors, he was ready in 2018. Still has work to do to get better.  He's 4 years younger than current AL ROTY favorite Kyle Lewis. 

 

That one home run game put his WRC+ at 101, so league average hitter while "struggling" in a small sample size.

 

 

I agree with pretty much everything @meh2 said

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On 8/20/2020 at 7:18 PM, brockpapersizer said:

What player in the minors for the Blue Jays should have Vlad's job?  

 

People act like they have a waiver wire where they can just pick up Evan Longoria or Donnavan Solano for free just to replace Vlad to put up. slightly better (if even) short term stats (on a likely losing. team regardless)  rather than develop one of their best young pieces.

Saying Vlad should be in the minors is laughable. Yes. he's a 21 year old not performing. well right now. Yes Juan Soto was a lower ranked prospect and is significantly better.  

It really doesn't matter what a person is ranked as a prospect - how is that not obvious by now?

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  • 4 weeks later...

Another disappointing year(or 60 games) for Vlad Jr.

 

The profile just doesn't look great that's the main problem, he still has a lot of work to do.  183 total games now sitting at ~780OPS and almost 2:1 K:BB ratio.   He's shown some flashes here and there, but overall given his pedigree he's been very ordinary.  Could take some time but I don't think anybody would have expected this average of a start to his career. 

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