Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Way too early 2020 rankings


Recommended Posts

I know the season just ended and my coffee isn't even cold yet, but those of us who are crazy fanatics are probably already thinking of next year.  Let's start some discussion and speculation!

PPR:

1. CMC - Is there any even doubt?  Guy is ridiculous and is a cheat code.

2. Michael Thomas - Also a cheat code.  Easily the #1 WR.  176 targets.  145 catches an NFL record.  His target share is ridiculous.  Can't be stopped even when defense knows it's coming his way.

3. Saquon - It was a disappointing 2019, but he showed enough at the end when it counted and won a lot of people ships.  He'll be even healthier, young talent around him, Daniel Jones will get better, improvements to offensive line - his arrow is back pointing up.  That long TD run on Sunday shows that he can still house any ball he touches.

4. Zeke - It was an up and down year for the Cowpokes, but Zeke still ate.  He's durable, and even with a very effective Tony Pollard, Zeke still was a workhorse RB.  The offense flows through him.

5. Dalvin Cook - He and Zeke are close and could be flipped, but obviously the question with Cook is always the same, which is injury risk.  He's missed 20 games already in his young career.  Recency bias of him letting down his owners this year when it counted most will likely push him behind Zeke in the majority of drafts.

6. Aaron Jones - This guy gets no respect.  Even sharing a backfield with Jamawful Williams, he was the #2 RB.  19 TDs, 16 on the ground.  You want your first rounder to score, and this guy does it regularly.  How was he not voted into the Pro Bowl?

7. Deandre Hopkins - 150 targets, the only other receiver with over 100 catches.  There will be debate between him or Davante as the #2 WR.  I'm going to go with Hopkins because he plays with Watson, while Rodgers seemed really inconsistent this year and perhaps a sign of things to come.

8. Davante Adams - The foot injury derailed his season, but last night's game showed that he still dominates on the outside.  

9. Julio - Those who have owned him before have likely been frustrated.  The mantra that he doesn't score TDs is valid, as he didn't see the end zone between weeks 4-14.  But he still sees massive targets. 35 targets in the last two games show how dominant he can be.  But this was of course without Calvin Ridley.

10. Alvin Kamara - Is this too high for him?  Or too low?  I think he'll be one of the most debated guys in the first round.  Didn't score between week 4 to week 15, which obviously isn't what you want to see.  I feel like he will be a first rounder simply based on name recognition.

11. Derrick Henry - Let's give this man his due.  Yes, he might not be involved in the passing game.  But he is a monster and a truck who dominates carries.  Assuming Tannehill is the QB, Henry likely will face less stacked boxes now with a credible passing threat in AJ Brown.

12. Mel Gordon - The 4 game holdout obviously hurt his final season stats.  And the Chargers are a mess.  And Ekeler is a credible threat in this backfield.  But I'm assuming he gets to go somewhere else - Pitts, Miami, etc.  Talent is still there.

13. Lamar Jackson - Yes, there's going to be a lot of debate about whether he is worth a first rounder.  I personally wouldn't - see Mahomes regression - but maybe this guy is somebody who will break that mold and maintain his production.  Injury could derail his career, but he looks like a different breed of running QB.  I know I wouldn't draft him in the first but you know in the majority of drafts next year that somebody in your league will take him.  End of the first round (in 14 teamers) seems about right.

14. Todd Gurley - Another polarizing name in the first round, but these last few weeks have shown that he's still talented and can put the ball in the end zone.  He's still got burst, can make the corner, and Malcolm Brown and Henderson didn't seem to be a threat.  McVay admitted that he was an idiot essentially for not playing Gurley.  Hopefully they don't do this "load management" with him again, but obviously his ranking would drop if we knew this would happen.

 

Guys that just missed the first round or ones I can't decide about:

Chris Godwin / Mike Evans - Seems like one of them would always go off in a week, but you could never predict who.  I think I'd choose Godwin over Evans if I had to.

Tyreek Hill - Injury cost him a lot of this season.  But as the #1 WR of Patty Mahomes, he's still one of the most dynamic threats in the game.

Mark Ingram - Lamar's rushing ability actually seemed to help Ingram as defenders had one more guy to focus on.  10 TDs despite his QB running for an NFL QB record.

Nick Chubb - The Kareem Hunt threat will still exist.  But he was still productive despite his return.  Cleveland however is a mess and they need to figure things out there.

Lenny Fournette - Certainly not a first rounder, but he still dominates snaps and carries for his team.  I'd like to see more offseason team improvement but I think he still ends up in the lower teens.

Travis Kelce - There won't be any debate in 2020 about whether or not he is worth a first round pick.  But he was still the #1 TE and is a focal point in the KC offense.  Should be a top 20 pick.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 105
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

All I know is I am reaching for AJ Brown in every draft.

Do you just go by raw numbers when you judge/project player values? Because when I analyze the numbers here is what I see. 17.2 total touches per game OR 18.3 looks when you consider total targets. TD

I want nothing to do with Kamara. It's not that he can't be an elite high end RB1 but I don't want to deal with how they run their offense. I shouldn't have to worry about if my first pick will g

Posted Images

5 minutes ago, CooL said:

I know the season just ended and my coffee isn't even cold yet, but those of us who are crazy fanatics are probably already thinking of next year.  Let's start some discussion and speculation!

PPR:

1. CMC - Is there any even doubt?  Guy is ridiculous and is a cheat code.

2. Michael Thomas - Also a cheat code.  Easily the #1 WR.  176 targets.  145 catches an NFL record.  His target share is ridiculous.  Can't be stopped even when defense knows it's coming his way.

3. Saquon - It was a disappointing 2019, but he showed enough at the end when it counted and won a lot of people ships.  He'll be even healthier, young talent around him, Daniel Jones will get better, improvements to offensive line - his arrow is back pointing up.  That long TD run on Sunday shows that he can still house any ball he touches.

4. Zeke - It was an up and down year for the Cowpokes, but Zeke still ate.  He's durable, and even with a very effective Tony Pollard, Zeke still was a workhorse RB.  The offense flows through him.

5. Dalvin Cook - He and Zeke are close and could be flipped, but obviously the question with Cook is always the same, which is injury risk.  He's missed 20 games already in his young career.  Recency bias of him letting down his owners this year when it counted most will likely push him behind Zeke in the majority of drafts.

6. Aaron Jones - This guy gets no respect.  Even sharing a backfield with Jamawful Williams, he was the #2 RB.  19 TDs, 16 on the ground.  You want your first rounder to score, and this guy does it regularly.  How was he not voted into the Pro Bowl?

7. Deandre Hopkins - 150 targets, the only other receiver with over 100 catches.  There will be debate between him or Davante as the #2 WR.  I'm going to go with Hopkins because he plays with Watson, while Rodgers seemed really inconsistent this year and perhaps a sign of things to come.

8. Davante Adams - The foot injury derailed his season, but last night's game showed that he still dominates on the outside.  

9. Julio - Those who have owned him before have likely been frustrated.  The mantra that he doesn't score TDs is valid, as he didn't see the end zone between weeks 4-14.  But he still sees massive targets. 35 targets in the last two games show how dominant he can be.  But this was of course without Calvin Ridley.

10. Alvin Kamara - Is this too high for him?  Or too low?  I think he'll be one of the most debated guys in the first round.  Didn't score between week 4 to week 15, which obviously isn't what you want to see.  I feel like he will be a first rounder simply based on name recognition.

11. Derrick Henry - Let's give this man his due.  Yes, he might not be involved in the passing game.  But he is a monster and a truck who dominates carries.  Assuming Tannehill is the QB, Henry likely will face less stacked boxes now with a credible passing threat in AJ Brown.

12. Mel Gordon - The 4 game holdout obviously hurt his final season stats.  And the Chargers are a mess.  And Ekeler is a credible threat in this backfield.  But I'm assuming he gets to go somewhere else - Pitts, Miami, etc.  Talent is still there.

13. Lamar Jackson - Yes, there's going to be a lot of debate about whether he is worth a first rounder.  I personally wouldn't - see Mahomes regression - but maybe this guy is somebody who will break that mold and maintain his production.  Injury could derail his career, but he looks like a different breed of running QB.  I know I wouldn't draft him in the first but you know in the majority of drafts next year that somebody in your league will take him.  End of the first round (in 14 teamers) seems about right.

14. Todd Gurley - Another polarizing name in the first round, but these last few weeks have shown that he's still talented and can put the ball in the end zone.  He's still got burst, can make the corner, and Malcolm Brown and Henderson didn't seem to be a threat.  McVay admitted that he was an idiot essentially for not playing Gurley.  Hopefully they don't do this "load management" with him again, but obviously his ranking would drop if we knew this would happen.

 

Guys that just missed the first round or ones I can't decide about:

Chris Godwin / Mike Evans - Seems like one of them would always go off in a week, but you could never predict who.  I think I'd choose Godwin over Evans if I had to.

Tyreek Hill - Injury cost him a lot of this season.  But as the #1 WR of Patty Mahomes, he's still one of the most dynamic threats in the game.

Mark Ingram - Lamar's rushing ability actually seemed to help Ingram as defenders had one more guy to focus on.  10 TDs despite his QB running for an NFL QB record.

Nick Chubb - The Kareem Hunt threat will still exist.  But he was still productive despite his return.  Cleveland however is a mess and they need to figure things out there.

Lenny Fournette - Certainly not a first rounder, but he still dominates snaps and carries for his team.  I'd like to see more offseason team improvement but I think he still ends up in the lower teens.

Travis Kelce - There won't be any debate in 2020 about whether or not he is worth a first round pick.  But he was still the #1 TE and is a focal point in the KC offense.  Should be a top 20 pick.

Gurley is too high. But otherwise I'd agree with these rankings. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

man I just tried to think of rankings but it's too soon. I will say I'm out on Zeke as a top 5 pick the OL is aging out he's got a ton of touches on him while Pollard looked electric. There's going to be a new HC and I can deff see a 70/30. Unpopular opinion since he just won people titles but I think Aaron Jones is prime to get overdrafted, 20 touchdowns on the season, just feels like you'll be drafting him at his ceiling albeit he could produce more regularly vs spikey (if touches balance out etc). 

 

 

alright see you guys in April

Link to post
Share on other sites

Pretty solid list.
 

1) Hill is too low... he should be the #3 WR IMO in every format except Full PPR.


2) I’ll have Kamara (and Henry) ahead of every WR except Thomas.

 

3) Hunt is a FA. If he and Kitchens are gone, I’ll take Chubb as high as top 5.


4) Gurley is too high... Jacobs will be ahead of him.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Love Mixon when they get burrow and build the o line. Mixon is going to be a top 5 back in ppr next year.he loves throwing to his rb. 
 

Mostert is interesting as well breida is probably gone next year and Coleman is meh

Edited by affliction
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

I like these lists as there are some top players that will fall with recency bias that may return great value in rounds 2-4 depending how far they fall.  Obviously lots change with player movement and the NFL draft but I like the analysis and recaps that can help with the draft next year and target certain players in dynasty/keeper leagues in offseason trades.

 

Some owners may be willing to trade guys like Zeke, Hill, Kamara, Evans, OBJ, Mixon, JuJu, Adams etc.  Some you may be able to get for slightly "cheaper" others may still value them a lot but willing to move on. If you believe in a guy who has top 10 upside this is the time to move on him.  Once the summer hits and the hype trains start rolling again values will start going up.

 

Some of these guys who were banged up can be targeted early in the offseason.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, I think Gurley might be too high too.  But he really showed these last few weeks that he still is talented.  For him, his success is all about usage.  As I said, if the mantra is that they'll be resting him again and managing touches in the first half, he's obviously out.

Josh Jacobs is talented, but he also isn't involved in the passing game.  But his situation might be like Henry, and look at Henry now.

Forgot about Mixon. He turned it on at the end, until diarrhea struck and cost his owners a ship.  I don't think anyone that owned him will be happy to have owned him.  If there's something I've learned, it's to be wary of RBs on teams with bad offenses.  (Of course CMC and likely even Barkley will cause us to ignore that.)

Not going to touch Bell until middle to late second.  He was healthy, yet still stunk.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, CooL said:

Yeah, I think Gurley might be too high too.  But he really showed these last few weeks that he still is talented.  For him, his success is all about usage.  As I said, if the mantra is that they'll be resting him again and managing touches in the first half, he's obviously out.

Josh Jacobs is talented, but he also isn't involved in the passing game.  But his situation might be like Henry, and look at Henry now.

Forgot about Mixon. He turned it on at the end, until diarrhea struck and cost his owners a ship.  I don't think anyone that owned him will be happy to have owned him.  If there's something I've learned, it's to be wary of RBs on teams with bad offenses.  (Of course CMC and likely even Barkley will cause us to ignore that.)

Not going to touch Bell until middle to late second.  He was healthy, yet still stunk.

Gurley's talent is there, just depends on his health and usage.  Maybe an offseason where he can rest up but there is definitely risk there. Really curious to see how the offseason goes for the Rams backfield.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, CooL said:

Yeah, I think Gurley might be too high too.  But he really showed these last few weeks that he still is talented.  For him, his success is all about usage.  As I said, if the mantra is that they'll be resting him again and managing touches in the first half, he's obviously out.

Josh Jacobs is talented, but he also isn't involved in the passing game.  But his situation might be like Henry, and look at Henry now.

Forgot about Mixon. He turned it on at the end, until diarrhea struck and cost his owners a ship.  I don't think anyone that owned him will be happy to have owned him.  If there's something I've learned, it's to be wary of RBs on teams with bad offenses.  (Of course CMC and likely even Barkley will cause us to ignore that.)

Not going to touch Bell until middle to late second.  He was healthy, yet still stunk.

Rookie year.  He showed great hands and ran pretty good routes.  A offseason to fully pickup the offense and work on blitz pickups.  He should be a everybody back next year.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't know about Aaron Jones as a 1st rounder.   He busted in 5 games.   I realize he also can win you weeks but he needed injuries to Adams and Williams for some of those to happen.   To me, a first round RB pick needs to be reliable for 12-15 PPR points.  Someone that you don't have to worry about what his splits are. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, K197040 said:

I don't know about Aaron Jones as a 1st rounder.   He busted in 5 games.   I realize he also can win you weeks but he needed injuries to Adams and Williams for some of those to happen.   To me, a first round RB pick needs to be reliable for 12-15 PPR points.  Someone that you don't have to worry about what his splits are. 

he finished RB2 overall and averaged 16.8/game in standard / 20.2 PPR

Edited by lolcopter
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Nyblazer11235 said:


yes but he’s like the tyreke hill of rbs. He can single handedly win you a week but the floor is practically nothing 

I don't see how that's any different outside any WR not named Michael Thomas this season but people still have WRs going first round

 

I hope the disrespect continues, I'll gladly take Jones late 1st if possible while people are still drafting Gurley off name value alone

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Good early rankings.

I know I will struggle with Lamar next year.  I mean, when I start looking at many late first or second round picks, I'm not sure I'll be able to pass on Lamar.  He's just a huge difference maker and weekly advantage.  I know it's a replaceable position and all....But I'm still gonna struggle.  I think it's a little different than Mahomes because I really expected his TD rate was unsustainable and we knew regression was coming there.  But with Lamar, he can still run like he did this year and he might be capable of running for 15 TD's while still throwing for 30+ TD's.  And if they improve his WR corps....Look out.

It's just going to be interesting.  I really don't think Lamar will regress as much as Mahomes....Injury is the only thing that will derail him.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, lolcopter said:

also laughing at Melvin Gordon in the first round, huge reach I don't care where he/Ekeler goes

I have him as a keeper in one of my main leagues and I'm not sure I'm feeling it.  I doubt I would get anything decent in a trade offer either unless he goes to a new team with upside.  If he stays with the Chargers and Ekler is still there I doubt I keep him.  

 

I'd draft him again if I can get him a bit later in the draft but not worth an early pick as it stands now.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, K197040 said:

I don't know about Aaron Jones as a 1st rounder.   He busted in 5 games.   I realize he also can win you weeks but he needed injuries to Adams and Williams for some of those to happen.   To me, a first round RB pick needs to be reliable for 12-15 PPR points.  Someone that you don't have to worry about what his splits are. 

 

Just now, Nyblazer11235 said:


yes but he’s like the tyreke hill of rbs. He can single handedly win you a week but the floor is practically nothing 

Unless you have CMC or Michael Thomas, can't anybody bust any given week?

 

1 minute ago, daethfromabove1979 said:


Ekeler is interesting, I assume they will add another RB with Gordon gone and Rivers will be finished too. He should still be a value in PPR wherever he goes. 

Ekeler was a top 5 RB but 37% of his season's production was during the first four games when Gordon was holding out.  Gordon has first round talent, not sure why he's getting disrespect.

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, tts42572 said:

Good early rankings.

I know I will struggle with Lamar next year.  I mean, when I start looking at many late first or second round picks, I'm not sure I'll be able to pass on Lamar.  He's just a huge difference maker and weekly advantage.  I know it's a replaceable position and all....But I'm still gonna struggle.  I think it's a little different than Mahomes because I really expected his TD rate was unsustainable and we knew regression was coming there.  But with Lamar, he can still run like he did this year and he might be capable of running for 15 TD's while still throwing for 30+ TD's.  And if they improve his WR corps....Look out.

It's just going to be interesting.  I really don't think Lamar will regress as much as Mahomes....Injury is the only thing that will derail him.

This is my issue. Do I keep Lamar in my one league? He was a beast but look at Mahomes. He had a few injuries and some quiet games and regressed a bit. Mahomes should be better next year but I just don't see how Lamar puts up these absurd numbers again. He will be good and his running ability is crazy but that can also get him in trouble. He took a monster shot vs CLE that if it was a couple inches higher he would have been knocked out.  Risk vs reward with Lamar.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, CooL said:

Gordon has first round talent, not sure why he's getting disrespect.

if your league doesn't count against fumbles. he's old and overrated. was the main cog for the Chargers by design and still didn't do much. I see Le'Veon Bell 2.0 if he goes somewhere else and want no part of it in the first three rounds

Link to post
Share on other sites

PPR:

1. CMC - Is there any even doubt?  Guy is ridiculous and is a cheat code.

Yeah, there is a lot of doubt. New HC and QB issues. A stupid HC can ruin a player. See Mixon -change in blocking scheme from what worked in 2018 because of stupid coaches. Only recently did they go back to the old scheme and wala.

Would not surprise me if last year was his peak year. I would not want pick #1 in 2020.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...