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Nolan Arenado 2020 Outlook


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In the past, Nolan was a lock to finish with    35ish homers and 110+ RBI.  As a dynasty owner, I was worried Nolan may not resign with the Rockies. He ended up signing an extension before the 2019 season but now there has been talk that Arenado is available for trade.

What do you think the chances of him being traded are? Also , how will it affect his outlook if he is traded? Obviously ballpark is a big factor but leaving Coors Field can’t be good. 

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It's funny, and by funny I mean absurd, how many people don't even bother to engage with the ample literature, posted many times across so many Rockies player threads, that proves beyond any reasonabl

Coors field hangover effect is also a fact, not an opinion. Research it not hard to find  

I remember when i first started in fantasy also... For one,  it's not my article,  as i didn't post any links in here at all.  But plenty of other people have,  and yet you continue with this dea

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I think there is a sub 10% chance that he is traded. If he is, it will most likely be to the Braves as they have an amazing prospect capital combined with a need at 3b. 

Still think he is a first round lock and production will be there all year per usual. 

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Arenado is a machine, but a machine that likes Coors Field.

He has nearly the same amount of AB/PAs home/away:

Career at home: .324/.380/.615, 8.2% BB, 13.8% K, .327 BABIP, 129 HR, 446 RBI, 373 R

Career on road: .265/.323/.476, 7.7% BB, 16.6% K, .276 BABIP, 98 HR, 288 RBI, 253 R

So if we're talking re-draft for 2020 I don't care; I'm buying Arenado as I always do: as a super-solid machine who is one of the most secure floor picks in the later half of the first round.  If we're talking 2021+ I'd consider shopping him to see what I could get in return.

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11 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Remember. Road numbers are not true talent numbers. Coors effect makes looking at splits an effort in futility. You'd be better off buying low at people overacting to i.t


most of the good or elite players who were in their primes and have left coors still put up good to elite numbers.  
 

Larry Walker, Gallaraga, Matt Holliday DJL, Fowler, Dickerson were fine

Vinny castilla, Tulo and Cargo were done by the time they left.

 

 

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On 12/27/2019 at 8:12 PM, Slatykamora said:

Remember. Road numbers are not true talent numbers. Coors effect makes looking at splits an effort in futility. You'd be better off buying low at people overacting to i.t

 

This is the most important thing to think about - Coors will really mess up these splits. Arenado will be an elite hitter anywhere he plays on the off chance he leaves. I would be looking for a discount if rumors start swirling.

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1 hour ago, zstlj said:

Cardinals gotta pull the trigger. Lots of sources reporting on preliminary talks , but I really think the might come to stl

Rangers are willing to eat the whole contract. Are the Cardinals? I mean, i would.. but i aint in the front office in St.Louis.

Also, who do the Cards trade? Obviously Edman is the first piece.. but beyond that? Maybe Liberatore was obtained to be sent off right away?

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Arenado is better than Rendon. Since Arenado has a full no trade clause he prolly ain't going anywhere. Remember the Cards traded for Stanton before he vetoed the trade. He and the Yankees have both benefitted from the move no regrets.

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On 1/13/2020 at 2:55 PM, Fbaseballgod said:

Can someone explain the rationale to passing on rendon and then paying prospects+ the whole salary on rendon? 


Honestly I agree with this. Just sign the free agent and keep your prospects for yourself or a move you might need to make . Different scenario but I loved how the Dbacks sold Greinke for specs, upgraded their farm significantly and then added Bumgarner in free agency. 
 

one problem with the Arenado deal is theres an opt out after two years. So if you have to give up some good prospects for just two years of Arenado ( where he will certainly be worth his salary but also won’t be cheap but on top of that you also have to risk the downside of him falling apart and then being on the hook for a lot of money, but if he’s great he opts out.   It’s a pretty big risk financially and your farm for two years of production. If he does get traded I can see the price reflecting the risk and being less than what one might expect. 

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On 1/13/2020 at 8:04 PM, hailfire4 said:

Arenado is better than Rendon. Since Arenado has a full no trade clause he prolly ain't going anywhere. Remember the Cards traded for Stanton before he vetoed the trade. He and the Yankees have both benefitted from the move no regrets.

That's not so cut and dry. They are both excellent ballplayers, but you don't really get an apples to apples comparison given one guy has played his career in an excellent hitters park. His career home/road splits are massive. 

Arenado is (obviously) an impact bat wherever he goes, but you can't just assume the offensive production stays in line with what he has done for his career to this point. 

For comparison: 

Rendon has a career slash of .291/.371/.496 at home. It's .290/.367/.484 on the road. I'd say you kinda know what you're getting here. 

Arenado has a career slash of .324/.380/.615 at home. It's .265/.323/.476 on the road. 


Arenado's road splits are worse than what Rendon has done at home or on the road for his career at literally every mark (avg, obp, slg). 

I'm not going to argue Arenado is/isn't better than Rendon outside of Coors. We have no way of knowing. We do have some information in the form of career splits, but it's not unusual for a guy to hit better at home regardless of ballpark, but those splits are pretty big. Very possible that Arenado in a hitter neutral park puts up Rendon-like offensive numbers, which is still excellent. There's some risk he's worse, then's some hope he could not drop off much (though I don't think this will be the case). 

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On 1/13/2020 at 4:53 PM, jonninho said:

Rangers are willing to eat the whole contract. Are the Cardinals? I mean, i would.. but i aint in the front office in St.Louis.

Also, who do the Cards trade? Obviously Edman is the first piece.. but beyond that? Maybe Liberatore was obtained to be sent off right away?

The Cards have some interesting prospects, Gorman/Liberatore/Carlson most notably. They also have Knizner and I read somewhere that the Rockies want a catcher back for Arenado, of all things. They seem to be in a good position at catcher if they do move Knizner, with Yadi's fountain of youth and Wieters this year and a very young one in A+, Ivan Herrera. I just hope that prospects I like don't go to the prospect graveyard in Colorado. 

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Sounds like Arendo wants out of Colorado at this point:

Quote

According to Jeff Passan of ESPN, Nolan Arenado's frustration with the Rockies is rooted in the team's inactivity this offseason.

After Rockies GM Jeff Bridich downplayed the chances of a trade involving the All-Star third baseman, Arenado said via text message Monday that he has felt "a lot of disrespect" from the Rockies' front office. It wasn't the trade talks that have frayed the relationship as much as the team's reluctance to improve this offseason. In fact, Passan hears that Arenado "expressed betrayal" when the Rockies said they didn't intend to expand their payroll. Even an in-person meeting with Rockies owner Dick Monfort didn't cool tensions. It's an awkward situation which could put the possibility of a trade back in focus. Arenado can control his destiny in such a scenario, as he holds a full no-trade clause. His contract also includes an opt-out after the 2021 season.

Source: ESPN.com

Jan 21, 2020, 11:22 AM ET

 

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Winning solves these offseason type things. Losing will really boil it over in the same vein. 500 ball would prolly calm everybody down at least during season. Once a player starts publicly complaining really hard to make him happy though. 

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Makes you wonder what the Rockies said they'd do with the roster before he signed long-term. This isn't trending well and the chances of him being moved before the start of the season just went up a tick.

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1 hour ago, TribeFoo said:

Makes you wonder what the Rockies said they'd do with the roster before he signed long-term. This isn't trending well and the chances of him being moved before the start of the season just went up a tick.

I don’t think they had to say anything at that point. The Rockies signed him coming off a 91-win season and a playoff appearance in 2018. They had a nice nucleus returning and were projected to have another good year.

Then in 2019 everything that could go wrong did. The pitching staff totally imploded, the offense was hurt by injuries and poor play. Arenado wants them to clean up the mess while he’s still in his prime, but it makes more sense for the Rockies to start thinking rebuild. I think he ends up getting traded, just a question of when more than if.

 

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1 hour ago, hailfire4 said:

Winning solves these offseason type things. Losing will really boil it over in the same vein. 500 ball would prolly calm everybody down at least during season. Once a player starts publicly complaining really hard to make him happy though. 

 

Thats the problem. SD is improving and LA is LA. Colorado is at best the 3rd best team in that division; arguably SF might be on par or better.

Winning? LOL

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1 hour ago, Gryfter said:

 

Thats the problem. SD is improving and LA is LA. Colorado is at best the 3rd best team in that division; arguably SF might be on par or better.

Winning? LOL

Arizona is third best if not second best.  Good solid rotation and some decent hitting.  Colorado will never have great pitching because of their location.  What free agent starter wants to go to Coors.

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4 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Arizona is third best if not second best.  Good solid rotation and some decent hitting.  Colorado will never have great pitching because of their location.  What free agent starter wants to go to Coors.

 

Damn, I totally forgot about Arizona, LOL.

Thanks.

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2 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Last thing they need is another Harper-like mega-contract.  Let Alex Bohm take over 3B sometime this season.

 

Always better to have a much worse player if there are savings involved. Winning championships are fun but have you ever experienced the joy of saving billionaires millions of dollars?

 

Yes, the Phillies would be a decent amount better with Arenado as would most (if not all) teams. 

 

 

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