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Nolan Arenado 2020 Outlook


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Rockies trying to challenge the pirates, knicks, redskins, and browns as the worst run franchises in sports.  They’re close.  Just need to bring in Mark Reynolds and patty barrels again to road block the young talent and alienate Trevor story somehow.

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It's funny, and by funny I mean absurd, how many people don't even bother to engage with the ample literature, posted many times across so many Rockies player threads, that proves beyond any reasonabl

Coors field hangover effect is also a fact, not an opinion. Research it not hard to find  

I remember when i first started in fantasy also... For one,  it's not my article,  as i didn't post any links in here at all.  But plenty of other people have,  and yet you continue with this dea

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The Phillies would be a very good fit, and ownership has said they'll blow past the luxury tax if if they think it means the difference between a title or not.  I don't know that the move alone does that, though -- the Philly rotation will be real a problem in the playoffs -- and the club doesn't have the kind of prospect capital that other teams have to throw Colorado's way.

My guess is the Rockies head into the season with him disgruntled, let him ball out as he always does, and flip him to whatever playoff-adjacent team might need a 3B at the time due to injury or lack of production.

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8 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Rockies trying to challenge the pirates, knicks, redskins, and browns as the worst run franchises in sports.  They’re close.  Just need to bring in Mark Reynolds and patty barrels again to road block the young talent and alienate Trevor story somehow.

How dare you leave the Mariners off the list!  Haven’t sniffed the playoffs in 20 years.  

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On 3/8/2020 at 3:48 PM, colepenhagen said:

nothing better than a slighted, underappreciated arenado falling to the 2nd rd. have a feeling the fantasy community is going to look pretty dumb

yeah, there's a chance he'll be there for me early in the 2nd, but he's another guy I'm just worried to pull the trigger on.  I can't afford to miss at that spot, and if he's stays in Colorado he's obviously one of the most reliable, safest pick in the entire draft.  I just can't shake that worry of him being traded. 

And while he's still a good player whether he's in Colorado or not, he's not 2nd round material if he's traded, given the depth at 3rd base right now. Not to mention he's never really been a high exit velocity guy and has benefited from Coors Field.

I could very well regret it but if and when the Rockies fall behind, I mean isn't the likely hood of him being traded pretty high, especially after the riff between him and management?  I would love to hear any Rockies' fans opinion on this.

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2 hours ago, summersoff7 said:

why is he xranked 15 in yahoo leagues?

hes a 4 cat guy

fear of leaving col

stat cast profile doesnt jump off the page

lack of aces in mlb makes that top tier go early in drafts (cole degrom max verlander buehler)

similar players produce similar lines so if you are targeting a 4 cat guy most people just take the best value (freeman jdm soto arenado)

jump in hrs across baseball really devalued the hr cat.

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The trade possibility has just about scared me off.  I may regret passing him over but a midseason trade would not be good.  Although I still see him going early in drafts so I guess it hasn't affected his ADP much.   But he would have to really fall for me to get him, which he won't.

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5 minutes ago, DFWSooner said:

The trade possibility has just about scared me off.  I may regret passing him over but a midseason trade would not be good.  Although I still see him going early in drafts so I guess it hasn't affected his ADP much.   But he would have to really fall for me to get him, which he won't.

I think people expecting a trade are psyching themselves out of a stud. Especially in redraft leagues. Just my opinion 

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5 hours ago, BxBOMBERs28 said:

I think people expecting a trade are psyching themselves out of a stud. Especially in redraft leagues. Just my opinion 

Not sure if he’s a stud if traded. He’s not the same on the road. If Colorado are out of playoff contention and some team badly needs a hitter and they’re a big market team and look like WS contenders...

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19 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Not sure if he’s a stud if traded. He’s not the same on the road. If Colorado are out of playoff contention and some team badly needs a hitter and they’re a big market team and look like WS contenders...

I’m saying I do not think he will be traded. Even if he was traded I still like him a lot 

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21 minutes ago, BxBOMBERs28 said:

I’m saying I do not think he will be traded. Even if he was traded I still like him a lot 

Well I get it but he’s just nothing special on the road. He’s something like a .277 20 HR hitter in a different part.

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11 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Well I get it but he’s just nothing special on the road. He’s something like a .277 20 HR hitter in a different part.

You can't really put that much stock into his splits unless you also consider the road trip altitude change hangover. It usually takes 4-6 road games for the Rockies players to acclimate.

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1 hour ago, jimmyjohns said:

You can't really put that much stock into his splits unless you also consider the road trip altitude change hangover. It usually takes 4-6 road games for the Rockies players to acclimate.

This. Arenado would likely still hit .280 with 30-35 bombs outside of Coors. 

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On 3/12/2020 at 12:04 AM, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

This. Arenado would likely still hit .280 with 30-35 bombs outside of Coors. 

His batting line on the road was .277/.346/.521 so you’re probably not too far off. Would he still be an elite option though?

 

On 3/11/2020 at 10:29 PM, jimmyjohns said:

You can't really put that much stock into his splits unless you also consider the road trip altitude change hangover. It usually takes 4-6 road games for the Rockies players to acclimate.

 

Do you have a link for this? Any interviews with Rockies players and stats that every Rockies player is affected by this?

 

 

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On 3/12/2020 at 12:24 AM, jfazz23 said:

 

but then is he really any better than josh donaldson?? 

Significantly better. JD is in decline and injury prone. He also hits worse for average. Now that he got paid and moved to a pitcher’s park, I expect JD on the list of biggest disappointments of 2020.

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I’d take under on anything outside Coors.  He’s not an extremely disciplined hitter and has hit in top 5 lineups and top 3 hitters park whole career.  If he got sent to an average lineup and mediocre hitters park like St Louis I’d set over under at 25 homers, and probably take slight under.  Anything outside of Coors he’s a bearish investment IMO.

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Arenado is a flat out steal at his adp I doubt he gets traded but even if he does it would probably be to the Braves or Phillies both good lineups and hitter parks. I still see him hitting 280+ 35hrs 100+ rbi 100+runs with 3 sbs

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Arenado has played 1 more game at home, has had 10 more at bats and 19 more plate appearances yet here are the #'s.

.324 129 HR 446 RBI 373 Runs at home

.265 98 HR 288 RBI 253 Runs on the road.

#CoorsVirus

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10 minutes ago, turner46 said:

Arenado has played 1 more game at home, has had 10 more at bats and 19 more plate appearances yet here are the #'s.

.324 129 HR 446 RBI 373 Runs at home

.265 98 HR 288 RBI 253 Runs on the road.

#CoorsVirus

Ok, but what really drags him down on those numbers are road games in LA, SF and SD, notorious pitchers parks with some history of great pitching in the division.

That 181 of his career 509 road games or about 36 percent.

I'm not saying that Coors doesn't give him a lift, but there's some context to the road splits too.

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