Sidearmer 2,103 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 We will see how much he drops, but he's probably a DND for me. Even if he turns out fine he likely is going to start the season on the IL and miss some starts. He is already an injury risk even if he was full healthy. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Members_Only_76 7,249 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Even deeper discount. 👍🏼 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
charger_ss24 374 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 18 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said: Even deeper discount. 👍🏼 For those who haven’t drafted, paid keeper prices or traded for. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MrBrett 130 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Hope to hear more on the issue before draft days, was on the fence already. From what I read the difference in results from the previous two seasons was luck. A little too lucky in 2018 and little too unlucky in 19. The Ray's should be good again, so wouldn't mind taking him if healthy. As of now, will wait and take Glasnow if available later in the draft. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sine_cera 6,239 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 59 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said: Even deeper discount. 👍🏼 I wonder if that’s actually going to happen. There will always be people taking him close to his current ADP, willing to roll the dice. I can see a discount but not a huge discount. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
2014olympicgold 112 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Really curious how much of a discount this creates. 10spots? 15spots? Obvi it's league dependent but curious what happens. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
charger_ss24 374 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 50 minutes ago, 2014olympicgold said: Really curious how much of a discount this creates. 10spots? 15spots? Obvi it's league dependent but curious what happens. I think it all depends how he fares rest of spring training. If there’s no setback, I think the discount is minimal, if any. And, as you stated, it’s league dependent. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
GrapeJuice 605 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 I just can't do it. At some point, I have to look myself in the mirror and smash a paddle upside my head and say "STOP DRAFTING PITCHERS THAT ARE 'ONLY GOING TO BE OUT FOR THE FIRST MONTH.'" Every year I do it and every year my IL spot is backed up for 3 months while someone is juuuust about to return and then they have a setback. That's it, I'm done, no more, I'm out! 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
B&F 883 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Owners were burned with Severino this year and last. He might not fall enough for my liking. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tonycpsu 5,252 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Yup. The way I heard someone on a podcast say it was "injuries are going to find you during the season, you don't need to try to find them in the draft." Obviously there comes a point where the value is worth the gamble, but with most leagues having 20+ active slots, anything fewer than 4 or 5 IL slots makes the needed discount much larger than most drafts are giving injured name brand starting pitchers. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
meh2 3,166 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 (edited) 49 minutes ago, GrapeJuice said: I just can't do it. At some point, I have to look myself in the mirror and smash a paddle upside my head and say "STOP DRAFTING PITCHERS THAT ARE 'ONLY GOING TO BE OUT FOR THE FIRST MONTH.'" Every year I do it and every year my IL spot is backed up for 3 months while someone is juuuust about to return and then they have a setback. That's it, I'm done, no more, I'm out! You’re not alone there. I’ve maintained for years that the fantasy community as a whole consistently underestimates the impact starting the season with an injury or recovering from major offseason surgery has on a player’s performance that year. Pitchers, especially, dealing with shoulder, elbow, or forearm injuries are generally a no-go for me during draft season. There’s always a point where I’d be comfortable drafting said injured player but I very rarely get to that point because there’s always someone else in the draft room who can’t resist the temptation. Edited March 3, 2020 by meh2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sidearmer 2,103 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, tonycpsu said: Yup. The way I heard someone on a podcast say it was "injuries are going to find you during the season, you don't need to try to find them in the draft." Obviously there comes a point where the value is worth the gamble, but with most leagues having 20+ active slots, anything fewer than 4 or 5 IL slots makes the needed discount much larger than most drafts are giving injured name brand starting pitchers. Agree with this, although I think you can get away with it in some cases (i.e. a pitcher with an ankle injury). Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mrmann1 83 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Said he played catch from 90 feet today with no discomfort. Positive sign of course but any elbow or forearm issues tend to make me nervous. Trying to package him as one of my keepers for darvish and a draft pick. What are others doing with this info thag he didn't have discomfort? Sell his good news or run with it? 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
charger_ss24 374 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, Mrmann1 said: Said he played catch from 90 feet today with no discomfort. Positive sign of course but any elbow or forearm issues tend to make me nervous. Trying to package him as one of my keepers for darvish and a draft pick. What are others doing with this info thag he didn't have discomfort? Sell his good news or run with it? I’m “stuck” with him. I traded Wheeler as part of a package two days before the news broke. I can’t drop him, because it’s an auction and I have a lack of funds to get him back. I can’t trade him for market value because everyone knows now about his elbow or will try to buy low. All I can do is hope for the best.🤷🏻♂️ 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MSkibisky 788 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Man, I really would love to see what this guy can do if he would stop getting bit by the injury bug. I am still high on him this year and praying that the "discomfort" doesn't return. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
BostonCajun 1,675 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 I'm high on him this year too but I have to admit the initial news had me very nervous. I get him in the 14th round as a keeper so the risk isn't as high but regardless if he misses time it's still a wasted keeper pick. I'm staying out for now and holding out hope that the news of no discomfort is a sign of good things. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sine_cera 6,239 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 He went in the 3rd round in Tout Wars Mixed Draft tonight (41st overall, #13 SP). So not much of a discount. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
OrangeCrush 307 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 On 3/3/2020 at 2:35 PM, BostonCajun said: I'm high on him this year too but I have to admit the initial news had me very nervous. I get him in the 14th round as a keeper so the risk isn't as high but regardless if he misses time it's still a wasted keeper pick. I'm staying out for now and holding out hope that the news of no discomfort is a sign of good things. This he’s playing catch again today so let’s see what happens 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MSkibisky 788 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 15 hours ago, Sine_cera said: He went in the 3rd round in Tout Wars Mixed Draft tonight (41st overall, #13 SP). So not much of a discount. I suspect that will be the earliest he goes. The question will be how late will he go, although things seem to be looking a little more positive Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jmcampbe11 754 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 16 hours ago, Sine_cera said: He went in the 3rd round in Tout Wars Mixed Draft tonight (41st overall, #13 SP). So not much of a discount. Speaking to Tout Wars, did you check out "DJ?" Short's team? Had a hard time believing an industry expert was making some of those picks... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sine_cera 6,239 Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 14 hours ago, MSkibisky said: I suspect that will be the earliest he goes. The question will be how late will he go, although things seem to be looking a little more positive Before he received his cortisone shot, his ADP was 35 and he was the #10 SP. Since the beginning of this month his ADP is 50 and he has been the #14 SP. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
BostonCajun 1,675 Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 The risk is real but the value is there if all things go his way. I got him last night in the 6th round of the forum mock at 67th overall. He was the 19th SP off the board. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ecofolux 228 Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 21 minutes ago, BostonCajun said: The risk is real but the value is there if all things go his way. I got him last night in the 6th round of the forum mock at 67th overall. He was the 19th SP off the board. Wow that's late, even with risk factored in, that's great value 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
OrangeCrush 307 Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 It’s a valid point Jayson Stark @jaysonst · 20h One day after Blake Snell resumed throwing in #Rays camp, Kevin Cash says they’re “not overly concerned” that Snell’s elbow discomfort is a long-term worry. “If we were concerned, he would have been shut down for a (prolonged) time,” Cash said. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
GrapeJuice 605 Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 (edited) This is the thing though, anything elbow = risk vs. reward. He may be fine now and without pain and everything is good but the human body is weird and it may have been an odd motion that hasn't been repeated since. I don't know. All I know is, every year, we read a lot of blurbs that include references to things that were mentioned earlier in the season that -- at that time -- were no big deal. "This is the same elbow that he tweaked in camp..." blah blah blah. If I'm in a keeper league, I don't even bat an eye. Seriously. But if I'm redraft? I just have to ask myself is it worth the risk when you're spending that high of a pick (#10-15 SP) on him? Invariably my answer is no. Edited March 5, 2020 by GrapeJuice OCD Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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