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Christian Yelich 2020 Outlook


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It seems like early ADP has Yelich right up there in just about a 3 way tie with Trout and Acuna for the #1 pick. Betts isn’t far behind. Kinda fun having serious strategic options for the top few picks. 
 

Anyway, I think Yelich is now more or less on that Trout level. Yelich stayed golden in the SB department with 30 (career high!), finishing with a line of 100/44/97/30/.329 in just *130 games.*
Thats insane.

This year (2020) will be Yelich’s age 28 season  

For comparison, Mike Trout turned in this line last year in his age 27 season (same age as Yelich):

110/45/104/11/.291 in 134 games  

Both may turn in better numbers next year with an extra 30 games each. And I understand Trout has a longer track record. But for me, those SB make the difference. Everything else looks pretty even in a standard 5x5, so the continued running by Yelich makes him my #1 pick (although I never seem to get the first pick in a draft 😢).

For reference, this is what I posted to start the 2019 Yelich thread. Turns out even I undersold him:

Many of us gambled on him finally exploding last year.

 

...it paid off. 

 

Now the question is, has he hit his ceiling yet or is there more? 

 

If he’s hit his ceiling, then top 10 pick (or, say, $40+) means there’s a huge chance he is a “bust” this year, either due to general regression, injury, or a slump in part of the year. 

 

However, since he’s young, it’s possible he may have more, in which case, you may choose him at 10 and get a top-5 return or pay $40 and get what would’ve cost you $50 had we known he had another level. 

 

What say ye?

 
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They should get paid their worth, whether you think they “need” it or not. The TV deals are in place, and prices at the stadiums aren’t going down. So if Yelich doesn’t get his worth, it stays in the

He's not a money-grubber. He's still making bank and he's happy where he is. Love guys like that. 

FANTASY BASEBALL 101 Chapter 1- How to Lose  -Use extremely small sample sizes that already happened to justify moves instead of using talent/ability and/or predictive metrics to best predic

He's a top 3 pick regardless. One risk is if the Brewers hold him back from running to protect him. Even if he's 100% from the injury (which should be expected), the Brewers may opt to give him some more red lights during the year.

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I don’t see Yelich approaching 30 SBs again next season. To be frank, I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t reach 20 SBs, even if he plays 150 games. The back, the kneecap. For leagues that draft prior to ST, I think you have to assume he’ll run less. 
 

And the injury potential will always be present. Back injuries don’t normally just go away. 

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  • 2 months later...
12 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Feels like that would be a great deal for the team! (and him as well, after signing a bargain type deal that locked down a number of early years).

 

Yeah, I think he's going the Trout route, signing early enough where if he's still doing well toward end of contract he can sign one last mega deal. I think there's no doubt he would've gotten more had he waited until free agency but it would cap out the ability for a second big contract. These type of deals are great for team and player.

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33 minutes ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

He's not a momey-grubber. He's still making bank and he's happy where he is. Love guys like that. 

Right! It's like, how much money do these guys need. Is there a practical difference between 200 and 300 million that changes your quality of life?

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16 hours ago, Big League Choo said:

Right! It's like, how much money do these guys need. Is there a practical difference between 200 and 300 million that changes your quality of life?

There is. I could get some practical use out of one of these...

 

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17 hours ago, Big League Choo said:

Right! It's like, how much money do these guys need. Is there a practical difference between 200 and 300 million that changes your quality of life?

They should get paid their worth, whether you think they “need” it or not. The TV deals are in place, and prices at the stadiums aren’t going down. So if Yelich doesn’t get his worth, it stays in the pockets of the billionaire owner. 

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20 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

They should get paid their worth, whether you think they “need” it or not. The TV deals are in place, and prices at the stadiums aren’t going down. So if Yelich doesn’t get his worth, it stays in the pockets of the billionaire owner. 


Agreed.  That being said, I don't have a problem with a player signing a discounted contract (which this is) if it gives them financial peace of mind and the guarantee of playing for the team they want to play for.  It's their prerogative.  It's funny to see people say there's no difference between 200 and 300 million though.  Seems like a pretty big difference to me.

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1 hour ago, OaksterDan said:


Agreed.  That being said, I don't have a problem with a player signing a discounted contract (which this is) if it gives them financial peace of mind and the guarantee of playing for the team they want to play for.  It's their prerogative.  It's funny to see people say there's no difference between 200 and 300 million though.  Seems like a pretty big difference to me.

100%. I also don’t like the union/agent pressure. IF Mookie wanted to stay in Boston, but felt pressure to get highest dollar for the guys behind him, that’s crap. He has no obligation to them and should be able to do whatever makes him happy. And if the others want top dollar...go earn it. We’ll see how everything plays out, but Machado May have literally cost himself the HOF by going to SD (I don’t know all details, if he just took top dollar, etc.). 

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6 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Machado May have literally cost himself the HOF

 

The Hall of Fame has become a joke.  

With all of the cheating going on these days,  I don't think people care about it as much anymore.

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8 minutes ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

 

The Hall of Fame has become a joke.  

With all of the cheating going on these days,  I don't think people care about it as much anymore.

You don’t think players want to be elected into the HOF when they’re done playing? I think you’re dead wrong.

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  • 3 weeks later...
44 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

How does everyone think he looked in ST? 

From the 8 ABs?

Kinda hard to tell anything from that.

I take the extension to mean the Brewers aren't too worried about the knee.

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If there was any lingering effects of the knee injury, those will certainly be gone when the season starts. He's been unfairly pegged as the #3 guy by most but he was on pace to have a better season than Acuna and Trout had he not had the freak injury.

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