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Luis Robert 2020 Outlook


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2 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Hot take: Luis Robert is highly overrated and owners should cash in on him now 

 

The list of studs in the MLB with a 4.9/24.7 BB/KK rate I can count on one hand, and that’s his line in the MINORS (tends to get worse in the MLB).  

 

Trade the guy that posted after you.

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Sadly COVID took away the chance at a 40/40 rookie season for Robert. Guess we'll have to settle for 30/30.

No player is ever too young for most owners.  Only too old.  The younger the better in dynasty and deep keepers for sure.  In fact Luis Robert was taken in those leagues two to three years ago.  As so

I am excited to see how it plays out. I have him in the minors in a deep dynasty. My 3 starting OF's are pretty set for now, but if he starts off hot or if Hiura gets hurt and I need to move Merrifield to 2nd or need an OF due to a different OF's injury I won't hesitate to make the call.

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14 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Hot take: Luis Robert is highly overrated and owners should cash in on him now 

 

The list of studs in the MLB with a 4.9/24.7 BB/KK rate I can count on one hand, and that’s his line in the MINORS (tends to get worse in the MLB).  

 

The number with the power/speed combo of Robert that also look and move like a young Terrell Owens you could probably count on an even smaller hand. There are enough stars that improve their K rate in the majors or at least keep it steady (Judge, Stanton, Bryant, Springer, Moncada, Baez, Trout, and so on) that it's not a concern for me at this point, especially since it's essentially one year of data for a guy that was quite young for his level.

Perhaps I'm just wading in the middle of a koolaid ocean the way I was with Vladito last year, but the dude has the tools, the body, and so far, the performance of a megastud befitting the hype. If Tim Anderson can rock an xba near .300 with a 3% walk rate, 21% K rate, and below average EV,  I think a guy like Robert who is faster and hits the ball harder is ok unless MLB breaking pitches truly confuse him worse than calculus.

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Are we asking if he will have successful career or successful rookie year?  Javier Baez was awful in his MLB call up, he's had a great career.

Tim Anderson's is a different type of hitter. He never had high FB% in the minors or early in the majors. This helped him maintained high BABIPs with his speed. Robert has speed, but he doesn't have a "quick hangtime" approach. He is trying to hit HRs like Baez was/is

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28 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Paul Sporer mentioned that while he wasn’t saying this would happen, Robert’s profile and minor league stats are very similar to Lewis Brinson.  Upon comparing the two, they do 😐

Brinson was held down a lot longer as a 21 year old in high A. Brinson only had 158 PAs in the upper minors that year.

When Brinson was asked to repeat AA. He was awful in 326 PAs. Brinson had 484 PAs of upper minor time when he was traded to the Brewers as a 22 year old. Those numbers don't really touch Robert's 467 upper minor PAs as a 21 year old.

Throw away his Brewers numbers for playing in Colorado Springs. It's irrelevant to Brinson and any comparison.

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2 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

I think there will be growing pains this year, but the Sox have show patience with their youth so far, so I think he gets plenty of rope to right his ship. 

 

There will be some growing pains for sure, but look at who he has around him as mentors, EE and Abreu will be in his ear...he'll be fine.....

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Silly to compare anyone to Brinson, he was a highly regarded prospect with solid minor numbers that flopped in the big leagues. His profile is zero warning of a monster flop, he just couldn't handle the majors.

Seems agenda driven. I'd ignore it. Doesn't mean Robert will be great, just has zero bearing or relation to Robert.

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1 hour ago, StevieStats said:

Silly to compare anyone to Brinson, he was a highly regarded prospect with solid minor numbers that flopped in the big leagues. His profile is zero warning of a monster flop, he just couldn't handle the majors.

 


there were a decent amount of people who projected a Brinson flop. I forgot who, but someone on prospects live I think said when they worked for someone else they said they evaluated Brinson and said he was a pretty poor prospect and ranked him a ridiculous amount lower than consensus , but the editor wouldn’t let them publish it. 
 

Not saying Robert will flop at all, but there were warning signs with Brinson. The plate approach for Robert isn’t great either right now. The contract helps a lot because he’s going to have such an incredibly long leash and steals are a part of his game, but I could very easily see struggles in his rookie year.

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4 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

Hey, someone fill me in here. 22 years old, 30/30 guy. I don’t know much about him. Call up chances this year? I saw that he’s fast and hit a 480 foot home run lol. 

 

They paid him so they wont dick him around with service time and he should be the opening day starter 

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7 minutes ago, turner46 said:

 

They paid him so they wont dick him around with service time and he should be the opening day starter 

Oh for real? That explains why is his ADP is so high. Hopefully that speed can translate to the majors. His power looks legit. He hits the ball hard. 

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Given that the announcement was made on January 2, I ran the NFBC ADP from January 3 - today, and Robert is currently at an ADP of 88. Small sample size so should be interesting to see where he ends up, but this is the best guess as of now. If he ends around 88, it seems like very good value.

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5 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

Given that the announcement was made on January 2, I ran the NFBC ADP from January 3 - today, and Robert is currently at an ADP of 88. Small sample size so should be interesting to see where he ends up, but this is the best guess as of now. If he ends around 88, it seems like very good value.

I would be ecstatic if I got him there in my redraft league 

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26 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

Y’all think this guy is that good? No one is concerned about him being so young? 

No player is ever too young for most owners.  Only too old.  The younger the better in dynasty and deep keepers for sure.  In fact Luis Robert was taken in those leagues two to three years ago.  As soon as the platform you were on added him to the database basically.  Taken earlier in custom leagues where you could draft and store prospects on spreadsheets or on a website.

But even in redraft owners are always looking for the next great rookie phenom as if they are the newest brand sports car.  It is in human DNA to do that.  To take a chance on the next Acuna or whoever.  Take a risk or end up drafting the same old same old.

And yes he is projected to be that good.  Just in redraft he might not be that good immediately like Mike Trout wasn't.  But he could be like Acuna was right out of the gate.  That's the fun of fantasy baseball.  Taking a risk and swinging for the fences.  Having bragging rights for the next big thing being on your team.  Having him give you the edge to win the league with .  And also ... having fun along the way.

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13 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

No player is ever too young for most owners.  Only too old.  The younger the better in dynasty and deep keepers for sure.  In fact Luis Robert was taken in those leagues two to three years ago.  As soon as the platform you were on added him to the database basically.  Taken earlier in custom leagues where you could draft and store prospects on spreadsheets or on a website.

But even in redraft owners are always looking for the next great rookie phenom as if they are the newest brand sports car.  It is in human DNA to do that.  To take a chance on the next Acuna or whoever.  Take a risk or end up drafting the same old same old.

And yes he is projected to be that good.  Just in redraft he might not be that good immediately like Mike Trout wasn't.  But he could be like Acuna was right out of the gate.  That's the fun of fantasy baseball.  Taking a risk and swinging for the fences.  Having bragging rights for the next big thing being on your team.  Having him give you the edge to win the league with .  And also ... having fun along the way.

This post sums it up perfectly...I will probably draft him in redraft, I own him in my keeper and dynasty leagues: it's fun to find new guys to root for a follow

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On 1/23/2020 at 2:56 PM, the_wolfman said:

I'd rather be wrong and draft him too early then wait and watch him ball out on someone else's team. 

 

I'd rather be right and watch him get drafted too early then wait and watch him play badly on someone else's team.

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