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Luis Robert 2020 Outlook


oswald737
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Keeper stud for years to come...mark it down...electric on the basepaths...power...patience can be learned...gold glove material...power...great kid...power...humble...[...]

Nab this kid and don't look back...he has Ichiro rookie year potential w more power...ROY MVP STUFF...end of story...

Edited by tonycpsu
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fun to look back at my scouting report from a few years ago, right after the first Youtube footage of Robert was released. I definitely went overboard on his peak 'average' - I don't think he ever sniffs .302, or even .280. I stand by that 40-homer upside, I think his power potential is getting underrated while everyone gushes over the speed. 

 

Luis Robert (White Sox) OF age 20

Probably the most talented prospect I’ve ever scouted; 

                His height, length, and quick-twitch makes him even more tantalizing than Moncada

                      The main question with Robert is the brain. everything else is through-the-roof upside.

                                     To be fair there are question marks:

                                              is he a 18 steal guy or a 35 steal guy? an 18 homer guy or 35 homer guy?

                                                      I’ll float a best-case-scenario peak projection: .302-112-40-115-30

                                                         That peak depends so much on the hit tool, which is tough to gauge It could end up anywhere between the 45-65 range. 

 

Player Comparison: Ken Griffey Jr. | Torii Hunter | Yoan Moncada | Preston Wilson | Alex Rios

Prospect Grade: A+

Future Round: 1

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS
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Weird stuff happens. Tim Anderson just hit .335 with like a 2% walk rate. I think Robert is a fair bet to hit .280+ a few times just based on speed and EV. Also not a stretch to think he'll get better at letting the low and away sliders go by as he matures. I remember him having something ridiculous like a .480 OBP in DSL, so that at least tells you he isn't overly aggressive to the point of detriment -- he'll take a pitch out of zone when he recognizes it. This was his first full year in pro ball in the states so I think it's fair to expect him to improve in that regard, even if only a little bit.

Two concerns I have about him: He goes hard in CF. Slightly reckless. Injury risk there. And also, the SB thing. The speed burners the White Sox have now don't attempt that many steals. You would think both Moncada and Anderson would be at 40-50 attempts in rebuilding seasons to perfect their technique, but nope. It may be a Renteria thing. Both were on base a ton this past year and just didn't run. So despite Robert having close to Billy Hamilton speed, he's not gonna give you Billy Hamilton SB attempts. I'm actually a little bearish on his SB total and would project 12-18. He may also start the year batting 7 or 8, so that sucks as well.

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6 hours ago, sleepysock said:

Weird stuff happens. Tim Anderson just hit .335 with like a 2% walk rate. I think Robert is a fair bet to hit .280+ a few times just based on speed and EV. Also not a stretch to think he'll get better at letting the low and away sliders go by as he matures. I remember him having something ridiculous like a .480 OBP in DSL, so that at least tells you he isn't overly aggressive to the point of detriment -- he'll take a pitch out of zone when he recognizes it. This was his first full year in pro ball in the states so I think it's fair to expect him to improve in that regard, even if only a little bit.

Two concerns I have about him: He goes hard in CF. Slightly reckless. Injury risk there. And also, the SB thing. The speed burners the White Sox have now don't attempt that many steals. You would think both Moncada and Anderson would be at 40-50 attempts in rebuilding seasons to perfect their technique, but nope. It may be a Renteria thing. Both were on base a ton this past year and just didn't run. So despite Robert having close to Billy Hamilton speed, he's not gonna give you Billy Hamilton SB attempts. I'm actually a little bearish on his SB total and would project 12-18. He may also start the year batting 7 or 8, so that sucks as well.

Moncada:

"I want to steal more bases," he said. “That’s an area I want to improve."

Moncada had 10 stolen bases last season. It’s just one area he’s focused on in taking a next step.

“Just get better overall in my game,” he said. “With what I did last year, it was a good step forward, and this year I’m hoping to just keep going forward with my game.”

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/white-sox/ct-chicago-white-sox-yoan-moncada-20200215-qkrxciwwczdrrodz56db7piagu-story.html

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13 hours ago, Hanghow said:

Also, TA's stolen bases only fell off after his ankle injury. Until then, he was easily on pace for 30+. I just wouldn't be concerned about the sox holding him back on the basepaths. 

It's happened every year of his career, though. He will run early in the year and everyone thinks he's going to hit 40+, then nope. Not even close. Looking at career first/second half splits, he has roughly twice as many steals in the front half of the year compared to the back half. In essentially the same number of games.

The Moncada quote is encouraging, though. What he said last offseason about changing his approach is exactly what he did, so unlike most players I trust his offseason blabber a bit more. Going from 10 to 20-25 SB would be pretty huge if he in fact can do it.

Edited by sleepysock
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Looks like Renteria is gonna keep us guessing for now in regards to the batting order.  Apparently Robert was scheduled to hit leadoff in yesterday's rained out opener.  However, Renteria just the day before said that Moncada and Anderson are his top candidates to lead off this season.  

 

Luis Robert to lead off, start in center field in White Sox Cactus League opener

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I understand profiles like this can be successful, like Adam Jones and Baez. Once the bat speed flounders the cliff is steep. So it wouldn’t surprise me to see him be successful for many years. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him flop. I prefer the stability in a OBP based profile but the MLB pool isn’t all cookie cutter. That said, I tend to stay away or trade these types on hype. By all reports, Robert has stud skills and a butter face (k/bb ratios). 

Edited by tucker26
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1 hour ago, StartYourStuds said:

But he’s hit a HR, triple, double, single, walked, and has a SB. Love to see it.

So has Richie Martin, Roughed Odor & Edward Olivares.

I own him everywhere, so i am rooting for him. I just have my doubts about ST #s.

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