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Luis Robert 2020 Outlook


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3 hours ago, papasmurf said:

wally pip that anderson from leadoff.

Anderson raked last year and was hitting .333 before hitting the IL. As much as we want it to happen, I can't see it happening (unless maybe Robert truly goes bananas; 1.200 OPS or something while Anderson is out).

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Sadly COVID took away the chance at a 40/40 rookie season for Robert. Guess we'll have to settle for 30/30.

No player is ever too young for most owners.  Only too old.  The younger the better in dynasty and deep keepers for sure.  In fact Luis Robert was taken in those leagues two to three years ago.  As so

Ok, might as well start all the conflagration about Robert. Disclaimer - I don’t own Robert shares this year although I kinda wish I did.

 

His explosiveness and athleticism are very very impressive. Were talking top 3 player overall talent. But there are some red flags here starting to manifest
 

So far in 50 PAs he is swinging outside of the zone 50% of the time. He is also swinging and missing at MLB pitches 25% of the time. I wonder how long it will take for pitchers to start throwing him absolute junk.

 

Let the cat and mouse game of adjustments begin.

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54 minutes ago, UberRebel said:

Ok, might as well start all the conflagration about Robert. Disclaimer - I don’t own Robert shares this year although I kinda wish I did.

 

His explosiveness and athleticism are very very impressive. Were talking top 3 player overall talent. But there are some red flags here starting to manifest
 

So far in 50 PAs he is swinging outside of the zone 50% of the time. He is also swinging and missing at MLB pitches 25% of the time. I wonder how long it will take for pitchers to start throwing him absolute junk.

 

Let the cat and mouse game of adjustments begin.

 

I care more about him doing damage when he does make contact. Compare this to a guy like Kingery (who may still be coming back from covid and whom I regret drafting) who puts the ball in play but hits the ball weakly and is an easy out. 

He does have 5 walks this year, which is more than I thought he'd have at this point.

Let's face it, who among us really expected a high BA this year? I was thinking I'd be happy if he hit about .250 with power and speed.

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  • 2 weeks later...

It's going the way you might expect.

He starts off showing he can hit. Then pitchers stop challenging him and throw him crap as long as he swings at them.

In the beginning he was drawing some walks, but it seems now he's just hacking like he can't wait to go back on the field to play D.

Dunno if the switch will click this year...  the key to success as ML batter: swing at hitters' pitches.

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1 minute ago, UberRebel said:

I’m not rooting for it but would it really surprise anyone if this thread looked a lot like the Aristides Aquino 2019 Outlook when it’s all said and done? Give or take a bunch of steals

 

Yes. Yes, it would. 

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6 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

Yes. Yes, it would. 

 

Ok. But as an exercise, pick which one is Robert so far and which one is Aquino 2019

 

PLAYER A

O-Swing% - 41.2%

SwStr% - 18.9%

Swing% - 55.7%

Z-Contact% - 76%

 

PLAYER B

O-Swing% - 48%

SwStr% - 24.7%

Swing% - 61.5%

Z-Contact% - 73.7%

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27 minutes ago, cjw3 said:

 

 


Now this is a savvy little piece of information; one that is both eyebrow raising and eye opening to say the least. Daddy like. The same number of 115 MPH rockets flying off this rookie’s bat in only 12 to 15% the number of balls batted ball instances over his first 20 major league ballgames as those 4 superstars had in all of 2019 has to be telling of something. Kid is special. 

Edited by Chest-Rockwell
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  • 3 weeks later...

Abreu says that he is always trying to get better and he's receptive to lessons. Trouble is, Abreu himself ain't the most patient hitter. But despite the high Ks he is taking some walks and when he gets one he can hit... dang.

If LouBob can put up these numbers with a disgusting K rate, that's a pretty good sign.

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On 8/17/2020 at 8:53 PM, UberRebel said:

 

Ok. But as an exercise, pick which one is Robert so far and which one is Aquino 2019

 

PLAYER A

O-Swing% - 41.2%

SwStr% - 18.9%

Swing% - 55.7%

Z-Contact% - 76%

 

PLAYER B

O-Swing% - 48%

SwStr% - 24.7%

Swing% - 61.5%

Z-Contact% - 73.7%

you could probably find a wide range of players that have a similar stat line. Some guys are more successful swinging a lot than others. 

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26 minutes ago, Evincar said:

The K rate is still fugly but Im encouraged by how much he has walked this season. 2 SBs today.

Agreed, some of the underlying stats are worrisome and maybe he gets exposed in 2021 .. but right now he is having an incredible season. 

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If all he does is continue to hit mistakes the way he has been he'll be fine. If he stops swinging at trash, he's gonna be as good as it gets. >10% BB rate and <25% K rate seem like realistic goals for next year (he's at 9% and 30% right now). That bit of improvement alone would propel him up into the next tier of superstars on both a real-world and fantasy level.

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7 hours ago, buzzkilloton said:

 

Many experts were saying similar things about Tatisjr last season. 


This is why it’s important to understand the distinction. Tatis for all his contact issues last year wasn’t nearly as bad as Robert this year. That’s why Robert’s profile is worrisome despite all of the HRs and exit velocities

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4 hours ago, UberRebel said:


This is why it’s important to understand the distinction. Tatis for all his contact issues last year wasn’t nearly as bad as Robert this year. That’s why Robert’s profile is worrisome despite all of the HRs and exit velocities

 

You forgot his SBs, RBIs, and runs scored.

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