Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Matt Olson 2020 Outlook


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 148
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Nobody would have blinked if you switched Bogaerts and Olson at 31 & 40.   If you lost Olson to somebody else,  you would have been miffed. If you love somebody,  grab 'em.      

Last year’s numbers prorate to 45 HR/91 R/114 RBI over a full season. His ADP is around 66 and I feel like he’d be going higher than that if he didn’t get hurt. No reason to question his durability ei

Can't figure out how to properly embed a tweet but this thread is worth a read.    I took Olson #33 overall in the RW Mock #4 and it was pretty widely criticized as a major reach, but I

5 hours ago, mjb03003 said:

 

I realize this. It's why batted ball data matters. If you consistently hit the ball hard, and/or hit line drives, and/or hit the ball on the barrel, and/or have a certain launch angle... you can start to predict a few more batted balls becoming hits vs. someone who does less of these things. 

Lol,  to the exact tune of 3 more hits over 482 AB?

Man alive,  i need access to that system! To think,  all these years ive been doing it wrong...

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/9/2020 at 2:54 AM, Fbaseballgod said:

I feel like in a normal season I’d be all over Olson, but I’m getting a soft “so underrated he’s overrated” vibe.  Still, I think I’m mostly a buyer- his peripherals are dreamy and it’s not like a 250-35 HR season will ruin you. Upside 275-280 with 40 HR 

 

1 month later and my analysis is the same.  Soft buyer but think he's getting a little overrated at this point by the ~analytics~ community

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Fbaseballgod said:

 

1 month later and my analysis is the same.  Soft buyer but think he's getting a little overrated at this point by the ~analytics~ community

I think that’s fair, I mean I feel like that the crux of the other poster’s argument about Moustakas and Olson.  Specifically in Roto, you can acquire HR later.

I often roll my eyes and the recent bias that exists from the talking heads, and I think they see the HR count coming off an injury they said would impact his power.  So you get the pendulum swinging the other direction now and the approach becomes “imagine what that could look like over a full season”.  I don’t know how I would approach Olson in a redraft format, but I know I’m a believer in his ability and have been actively trying to acquire shares.

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/11/2020 at 5:12 PM, WahooManiac said:

Lol,  to the exact tune of 3 more hits over 482 AB?

Man alive,  i need access to that system! To think,  all these years ive been doing it wrong...

 

I don't really know what you're referring to with the 3 more hits over 482 AB line. Maybe I missed a post somewhere. I don't think it's entirely quantifiable, how much better your stats will be based on how the ball comes off your bat, but since we're all in the business/hobby of projecting I don't see how it isn't relevant information that can help separate otherwise similar players.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 4 months later...
  • 3 weeks later...
12 minutes ago, fredo_corleone said:

It's painful to see. Seems like he's either HR or bust most games.

This is a good observation. I remember earlier on in the season he had 8 HRs and 12 hits. Perhaps young Olson will figure it out though, I dunno. I think the I read a blurb from somewhere about his splits actually improving for left handers this year. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

His walk rate has gone up, still hitting the ball as hard as ever. His average will rise - xBA is .262. BABIP at .138, that’s nuts, it was .292 and .300 the last 2 years and his batted ball profile hardly changed.

Definitely buy low if possible.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, SpartyOn4 said:

His walk rate has gone up, still hitting the ball as hard as ever. His average will rise - xBA is .262. BABIP at .138, that’s nuts, it was .292 and .300 the last 2 years and his batted ball profile hardly changed.

Definitely buy low if possible.

 

I think it's hard to buy low when this is his likely floor and he's still a borderline top 100 player in standard leagues. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

It might be the shift.  What is really strange (good?) is that every year he makes improvements against lefties, and this year he is finally crushing them, with a 149 wRC+ and .350 ISO.

What he isn't doing is hitting righties as well as in previous years (though the underlying numbers haven't really changed.)

However if those numbers get back to career levels, we might still not have seen the best of Olson, and he still is only 26.

 

 

Edited by Hellgrammite
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, papasmurf said:

Out machine right now. Desperate situation calls for desperate measures. I am gonna bench him. If that doesnt make him hit two homers tomorrow. Nothing will.

He's killing me. I have a lot of options at 1B right now and Olson is a one trick pony. If I bench him he homers, if I start him he 0fers. What do?

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/28/2020 at 2:35 PM, papasmurf said:

Well, let's look at the silver lining...  bad surface numbers might keep his draft price low next year. Then we finally get the Big O next year.

.270 with 45 homers.

(Assuming a full 162 gm season)


I will take the under on both and give you 3-1 on any amount you want to bet..

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 2 weeks later...

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...